Some patients with type 2 diabetes may benefit from intensive glycaemic and blood pressure control: A post-hoc machine learning analysis of ACCORD trial data

AIM

The action to control cardiovascular risk in diabetes (ACCORD) trial showed a neutral average treatment effect of intensive blood glucose and blood pressure (BP) controls in preventing major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Yet, treatment effects across patient subgroups have not been well understood. We aimed to identify patient subgroups that might benefit from intensive glucose or BP controls for preventing MACE.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

As a post-hoc analysis of the ACCORD trial, we included 10 251 individuals with type 2 diabetes. We applied causal forest and causal tree models to identify participant characteristics that modify the efficacy of intensive glucose or BP controls from 68 candidate variables (demographics, comorbidities, medications and biomarkers) at the baseline. The exposure was (a) intensive versus standard glucose control [glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) <6.0% vs. 7.0%-7.9%], and (b) intensive versus standard BP control (systolic BP <120 vs. <140 mmHg). The primary outcome was MACE.

RESULTS

Compared with standard glucose control, intensive one reduced MACE in those with baseline HbA1c <8.5% [relative risk (RR): 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.67-0.93] and those with estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥106 ml/min/1.73 m2 (RR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.55-0.99). Intensive BP control reduced MACE in those with normal high-density lipoprotein levels (women >55 mg/dl, men >45 mg/dl; RR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.34-0.74). Risk reductions were not significant in other patient subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest heterogeneous treatment effects of intensive glucose and BP control and could provide biomarkers for future clinical trials to identify more precise HbA1c and BP treatment goals for individualized medicine.

A machine learning approach identifies modulators of heart failure hospitalization prevention among patients with type 2 diabetes: A revisit to the ACCORD trial

BACKGROUND

To examine patient characteristics that may modulate the heterogeneous treatment effect of intensive systolic blood pressure control (SBP) and intensive glycemic control on incident heart failure (HF) risk in people with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We analyzed 10,251 participants from the ACCORD glucose trial, and 4733 from the SBP sub-trial separately. We applied a robust machine-learning (ML) algorithm, namely the causal forest/causal tree analysis, to each trial to identify participants' characteristics that modulate the effectiveness of each trial intervention.

RESULTS

Diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was found to interact with intensive glycemic control and impact outcomes. An increased HF risk associated with intensive glycemic control (absolute risk change (ARC): 2.28 %, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.69 % to 3.90 %; relative risk (RR):1.57, 95 % CI: 1.15 to 2.20; P < 0.05) was observed in individuals with baseline DBP at the lowest tertile (45-69 mmHg), while no changes in HF risk associated with intensive glycemic control were observed in individuals with baseline DBP at the middle (70-79 mmHg) and the highest tertiles (80-100 mmHg). Liver function was identified as a modulator of intensive BP control, and baseline Alanine transaminase (ALT) level was a sensitive marker for the modulating effect. Only individuals with baseline ALT at the lowest tertile (8-19 mg/dl) benefited from the intensive BP control for HF prevention (ARC: -1.95 %, 95 % CI: -4.06 % to 0.11 %; RR:0.62. 95 % CI: 0.27 to 0.94; P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study is the first to observe and quantify the potential synergistic harmful effect when low DBP was combined with an intensive blood glucose intervention. Recognizing these may help clinicians develop a more precise approach to such treatments, thus increasing the efficiency and outcomes of diabetes treatments.

Potential Gains in Life Expectancy Associated With Achieving Treatment Goals in US Adults With Type 2 Diabetes

Importance

Improvements in control of factors associated with diabetes risk in the US have stalled and remain suboptimal. The benefit of continually improving goal achievement has not been evaluated to date.

Objective

To quantify potential gains in life expectancy (LE) among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) associated with lowering glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and body mass index (BMI) toward optimal levels.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this decision analytical model, the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) diabetes microsimulation model was calibrated to a nationally representative sample of adults with T2D from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2015-2016) using their linked short-term mortality data from the National Death Index. The model was then used to conduct the simulation experiment on the study population over a lifetime. Data were analyzed from January to October 2021.

Exposure

The study population was grouped into quartiles on the basis of levels of HbA1c, SBP, LDL-C, and BMI. LE gains associated with achieving better control were estimated by moving people with T2D from the current quartile of each biomarker to the lower quartiles.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Life expectancy.

Results

Among 421 individuals, 194 (46%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 65.6 (8.9) years. Compared with a BMI of 41.4 (mean of the fourth quartile), lower BMIs of 24.3 (first), 28.6 (second), and 33.0 (third) were associated with 3.9, 2.9, and 2.0 additional life-years, respectively, in people with T2D. Compared with an SBP of 160.4 mm Hg (fourth), lower SBP levels of 114.1 mm Hg (first), 128.2 mm Hg (second), and 139.1 mm Hg (third) were associated with 1.9, 1.5, and 1.1 years gained in LE in people with T2D, respectively. A lower LDL-C level of 59 mg/dL (first), 84.0 mg/dL (second), and 107.0 mg/dL (third) were associated with 0.9, 0.7, and 0.5 years gain in LE, compared with LDL-C of 146.2 mg/dL (fourth). Reducing HbA1c from 9.9% (fourth) to 7.7% (third) was associated with 3.4 years gain in LE. However, a further reduction to 6.8% (second) was associated with only a mean of 0.5 years gain in LE, and from 6.8% to 5.9% (first) was not associated with LE benefit. Overall, reducing HbA1c from the fourth quartile to the first is associated with an LE gain of 3.8 years.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings can be used by clinicians to motivate patients in achieving the recommended treatment goals and to help prioritize interventions and programs to improve diabetes care in the US.

Efficacy of iGlarLixi on 5-year risk of diabetes-related complications: A simulation study

OBJECTIVE

This study simulated the 5-year risk of diabetes complications associated with the use of iGlarLixi, a fixed-ratio combination of insulin glargine 100 U/ml and lixisenatide, in type 2 diabetes (T2D) using the BRAVO diabetes model.

METHODS

The six-month efficacy data of iGlarLixi and Standard of Care (SOC) were extracted from the LixiLan-O (NCT02058147) and ORIGIN (NCT00069784) trials, respectively. The trial participants' baseline characteristics were standardized to the ACCORD trial through a matching method. The BRAVO diabetes simulation model was used to project the 5-year complications based on T2D people baseline characteristics and treatment efficacy. An optimistic scenario where the six-month relative efficacy of iGlarLixi (i.e., iGlarlixi-SOC) lasted for 5 years, and a conservative scenario where the relative effect of iGlarLixi waned to none within 5 years were simulated.

RESULTS

iGlarLixi compared with SOC was found to reduce HbA1c (-1.4%), SBP (-3.4 mm Hg), and BMI (-0.6 kg/m²) in six months. We simulated a 5-year risk reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (relative risk [RR] 0.77, 95% CI: 0.67-0.88), and all-cause mortality (RR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.92-0.96) under an optimistic scenario, and MACE (RR 0.86, 95% CI: 0.75-0.96), and all-cause mortality (RR 0.96, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) under a conservative scenario.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term use of iGlarLixi may lead to a substantial reduction in diabetes-related complications among people with T2D at elevated risk for CVD. The use of a simulation model to evaluate outcomes of treatment in a well-characterized patient cohort is novel. Such an approach may serve as a template for future evaluation of medications and combinations when the effect of a treatment is known, but a long-term outcome trial is not feasible.

A Differential Threshold of Breakfast, Caffeine and Food Groups May Be Impacting Mental Well-Being in Young Adults: The Mediation Effect of Exercise

Diet and exercise are known to influence mental health. However, the interaction between diet, dietary practices, and exercise and its impact on the mood of young adults (YA) is poorly understood. YA are inherently at risk for mental distress. They tend to consume a low-quality diet and are generally active. The purpose of the study was to assess these relationships through validating causal loop diagrams (CLD) that describe these connections by using a system dynamic (SD) modeling methodology. Adults 18-29 years were invited to complete the Food-Mood questionnaire. The anonymous questionnaire link was distributed to several institutional listservs and via several social media platforms targeting young adults. A multi-level analysis, including machine learning techniques, was used to assess these relationships. The key findings were then built into gender based CLD, which suggest that a differential repertoire may be needed to optimize diet quality, exercise, and mental well-being. Additionally, a potential net threshold for dietary factors and exercise may be needed to achieve mental well-being in young adults. Moreover, our findings suggest that exercise may boost the enhancing effect of food groups on mental well-being and may lessen the negative impact of dietary impediments of mental well-being.

Weight-Loss Supplement Use as a Potential Trigger for Mood Changes Among College Students

Objectives

Weight loss supplements (WLS) are commonly used among college students. Although these supplements work through different mechanisms, many of them are sympathomimetic that may impact mental wellbeing. College students are inherently at risk of mental distress; therefore, use of these stimulants may exacerbate their response to stress and increase their risk of anxiety and depression. The purpose of the present study was to assess the pattern of use and perception of WLS among college students, and its association with reported mental distress symptoms.

Methods

Data were collected through an online questionnaire targeting US college students through social media platforms. A parallel study took place at an institution of higher education in Lebanon, a Middle Eastern country where college students commonly use WLS. The questionnaire included demographic questions such as gender, age, self-reported height and weight, hours of sleep, frequency of exercise, class, major and GPA. It also included questions on frequency of dieting, weight loss supplement use, perception, and symptoms associated with use.

Results

A total of 583 college students completed the survey. Random Forest Analysis produced a model of 0.98% accuracy with AUC = 0.993, which classified weight loss supplements as the most significant factor associated with mood changes in college students followed by academic class, exercise, GPA, gender, sleep, age and major. To confirm the directionality of these associations, a logistic regression analysis suggested that WLS strongly associated with symptoms of mood changes, followed by a low GPA and being a female. Conversely, upperclassmen, good sleep quality, being 23 years or older, and non- science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) majors inversely correlated with mood changes. A principal component analysis suggested a pattern for frequent dieting, weight loss supplement use and heavy exercise among men, and a pattern of frequent dieting, combining WLS, low quality sleep and no exercise among women.

Conclusions

Use of WLS among college students may be worsening their psychological status. In addition, there is a differential pattern of use among men and women that is worth further investigation.

Funding Sources

Experiment.com.

Common and differential associations between levels of alcohol drinking, gender-specific neurobehaviors and mental distress in college students

BACKGROUND

Binge drinking is associated with poor academic behaviors and performance. Excessive alcohol drinking induces molecular changes and neurobehaviors that support use of other substances and alter cognitive functions. The purpose of this study was to compare neurobehaviors and academic effort among college students with low alcohol use with those of high alcohol consumption and build conceptual models that represent the integration of the different variables.

METHOD

College students from several U.S colleges were assessed through an anonymous online survey for alcohol use, academic performance, lifestyle factors and mental distress.

RESULTS

Our results depicted common neurobehaviors and differential responses to high alcohol use.

CONCLUSION

The common responses in young men and women with high alcohol use are reflective of a hyperactive limbic system. The different responses involve cognitive aptitudes, typically controlled by cortical regions and affected by levels of brain connectivity known to be dissimilar between men and women.

A system dynamics model of infection risk, expectations, and perceptions on antibiotic prescribing in the United States

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing is still a major concern that can lead to devastating outcomes including antibiotic resistance. This study aimed to simulate the antibiotic prescribing behaviour by providers for acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) and to evaluate the impact of patient expectation, provider's perception of patient's expectation to receive a prescription, and patient's risk for bacterial infection, on the decision to prescribe.

METHODS

We developed a unique system dynamics (SD) simulation model based on the significant factors that impact the interaction between provider and patient during visits for ARTIs and the decision to prescribe antibiotics. In order to validate the model for different age groups and regions in the United States, we used the sample of 53 000 ARTI patient visits made at outpatient settings between 1993 and 2015, based on the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS).

RESULTS

Simulation results reveal that physician diagnosis for prescribing antibiotics is based on physician's experience from their prior prescribing behaviour, their perception of patient's infection risk, and patient's expectation to receive antibiotics. Also, there are some variations depending on patient's age and residential region. The simulation analysis also depicts the decreasing trend in patient's expectation over the past two decades for most age groups and regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the high number of unnecessary prescriptions for ARTI, we found that policies are needed to influence provider's prescribing behaviour through patient's expectation and provider's perception regarding those expectations. Our simulation framework can further be used by policymakers to design and evaluate interventions that may modify the interaction between health providers and patients to optimize antibiotic prescriptions among ARTI patients for different regions and age groups.

Patient expectation trends on receiving antibiotic prescriptions for respiratory tract infections: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite a variety of programs developed to control inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for viral infections, antibiotics are still prescribed excessively for Respiratory Tract Infections (RTI). The patient's expectation to receive an antibiotic often influences the clinician's decision and can lead to inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions. Our objective was to investigate the changes in patient expectations over time when presenting with symptoms of a respiratory infection.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of patient's expectation to receive antibiotics for RTIs. Two reviewers independently evaluated the collected studies based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Our search initially identified 12 070 studies, of which 321 studies were eligible for full text review and 37 articles were selected for final evaluation. Meta-regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between patient expectations and different years. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the Q statistic.

RESULTS

Patient expectations (effect size) were pooled using a random effects model. The effect-equality test showed heterogeneity among studies (Q = 3304.23, df = 40, P < 0.0001, k = 40, τ²  = 0.63). Meta-regression results revealed that there is a significant linear negative relationship (B = -1.8374, P < 0.05) between patient expectation and year of data collection, at the global level. A similar finding is observed for the subset of studies conducted outside United States (U.S.) (B = -1.2411, P < 0.1). However, there is no discernible trend for patient expectation in the U.S. or among children and adult subgroups. Also, no significant differences are observed between the patient expectations when considering different age groups.

CONCLUSION

The trend of patient expectation for receiving antibiotics for RTIs is declining over time on a global level and also outside the U.S.

Principal component regression of academic performance, substance use and sleep quality in relation to risk of anxiety and depression in young adults

Adverse lifestyle factors increase risk of anxiety and depression in young adults. Consequently, neurochemical and neuroanatomical alterations ensue, and may initiate a vicious cycle of mental distress, poor lifestyle choices and academic performance. A total of 558 students from different US colleges completed an anonymous survey on academic performance, daytime sleepiness, substance use and mental distress. Low mental distress in college students positively associated with good academic efforts and limited daytime sleepiness. Mild mental distress correlated with borderline work neglect and with a marginal negative association with Grade-point average (GPA). Severe mental distress correlated with excessive daytime sleepiness and poor academic performance. A System Dynamic model was developed to reflect the integration of these variables with mental distress and academic performance. Our results demonstrate that manageable lifestyle factors contribute to mental health in college students, which become potentially cyclic events that may impact academic performance.

College Education on Dietary Supplements May Promote Responsible Use In Young Adults

Dietary supplement (DS) use is increasing among college students. Early adulthood is a critical developmental stage when behavioral trends are established with potential health implications. Many studies have suggested a proper college education on DSs is needed, but no follow-up reports exist in the literature. The purpose of the study was to compare DS use in college students with and without a formal education on DSs. An anonymous survey was sent over electronic mailing lists of different social and professional student groups, including students in the health and wellness studies (HWS) minor (HM) at Binghamton University. A total of 308 students completed the study. A statistical framework using multivariate analyses was designed to assess pattern of use and identify variables of interest. Principal component analysis recognized five patterns collectively contributing to 66.75% of the variance. PC 1 characterized as tobacco use, PC 2 labeled as body weight, PC 3 categorized as exercise, PC 4 labeled as educated use, and PC 5 is considered Greek-life lifestyle. Participants were then partitioned into HM versus HWS nonminor (NM). Common factor analysis was performed to extract significant variables pertaining to each pattern. Results reflected driving forces common to both groups. However, new trends surfaced in HM. A regression analysis suggests that DS use in HM is based on knowledge, whereas NM use is specifically targeted toward certain lifestyles. In addition, HM are more likely to discontinue a DS with formal knowledge. Therefore, college education on DS may be promoting a healthy pattern of supplement use.

Principal component analysis identifies differential gender-specific dietary patterns that may be linked to mental distress in human adults

Independent reports describe the structural differences between the human male and female brains and the differential gender-susceptibility to mood disorders. Nutrition is one of the modifiable risk factors that has been reported to impact brain chemistry and affect mental health. Objectives: To study dietary patterns in adult men and women in relation to mental distress. Another aim was to develop evidence-based prototypes using System Dynamic Modeling methodology to better describe our findings. Methods: An anonymous internet-based survey was sent through social media platforms to different social and professional networks. Multivariate analyses were used for data mining. Data were stratified by gender and further by tertiles to capture the latent variables within the patterns of interest. Results: Mental distress in men associated with a consumption of a Western-like diet. In women, mental wellbeing associated with a Mediterranean-like diet and lifestyle. No other patterns in both genders were linked to mental distress. Based on the generated prototypes, men are more likely to experience mental wellbeing until nutritional deficiencies arise. However, women are less likely to experience mental wellbeing until a balanced diet and a healthy lifestyle are followed. In men, dietary deficiencies may have a profound effect on the limbic system; whereas dietary sufficiency in women may potentiate the mesocortical regulation of the limbic system. Discussion and conclusion: Our results may explain the several reports in the literature that women are at a greater risk for mental distress when compared to men and emphasize the role of a nutrient-dense diet in mental wellbeing.

Assessment of dietary factors, dietary practices and exercise on mental distress in young adults versus matured adults: A cross-sectional study

The importance of the diet in modulating mental health is uncovering as many dietary factors have been described to alter brain chemistry. Brain maturation may not complete until the age of 30 which may explain the differential emotional control, mindset, and resilience between young adults and matured adults. As a result, dietary factors may influence mental health differently in these two populations.

OBJECTIVES

To study dietary intake, dietary practices and exercise in young adults (YA) (18-29 years) versus matured adults (MA) (30 years and older) in relation to mental distress. Another aim was to assess whether mental well-being potentially stimulates healthy eating, healthy practices, and exercising.

METHODS

An anonymous internet-based survey was sent through social media platforms to different professional and social group networks. Best-fit models were constructed using the backward regression analysis to assess the relationship between dietary variables, exercise, and mental distress in YA versus MA.

RESULTS

YA mood seems to be dependent on food that increases availability of neurotransmitter precursors and concentrations in the brain (such as frequent meat consumption and exercise, respectively). However, MA mood may be more reliant on food that increases availability of antioxidants (fruits) and abstinence of food that inappropriately activates the sympathetic nervous system (coffee, high glycemic index, and skipping breakfast).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Level of brain maturation and age-related changes in brain morphology and functions may necessitate dietary adjustments for improving mental well-being.