Proposed clinical management of pregnancies after combined screening for pre-eclampsia at 30-34 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the patient-specific risk of pre-eclampsia (PE) at 30-34 weeks' gestation by a combination of maternal characteristics and medical history with multiples of the median (MoM) values of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), and stratify women into high-, intermediate- and low-risk management groups.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending a third-trimester ultrasound scan at 30-34 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 4 weeks from assessment and at < 40 weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing-risks model to combine the prior risk from maternal characteristics and medical history with MoM values of MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1. On the basis of these risks, the population was stratified into high-, intermediate- and low-risk groups. Different risk cut-offs were used to vary the proportion of the population stratified into each risk category and the performance of screening for delivery with PE at < 4 weeks from assessment and delivery with PE from 4 weeks after assessment and up to 40 weeks' gestation was estimated.

RESULTS

The study population of 8128 singleton pregnancies included 234 (2.9%) that subsequently developed PE. Using a risk cut-off of 1 in 50 for PE delivering at < 4 weeks and a risk cut-off of 1 in 150 for PE delivering at < 40 weeks' gestation, the proportion of the population stratified into high, intermediate and low risk was about 3%, 26% and 71%, respectively. The high-risk group contained 90% of pregnancies with PE at < 4 weeks and 40% of those with PE at 4 weeks from assessment to 40 weeks' gestation. The intermediate-risk group contained a further 49% of women with PE at 4 weeks from assessment to 40 gestational weeks. In the low-risk group, none of the women developed PE at < 4 weeks and only 0.3% developed PE at 4 weeks to 40 gestational weeks.

CONCLUSION

The study presents risk stratification of PE by the combined test at 30-34 weeks, aiming to identify a high-risk group in need of intensive monitoring from the time of the initial assessment and up to 40 weeks' gestation and an intermediate-risk group in need of monitoring from 4 weeks after the initial assessment and up to 40 weeks' gestation. All pregnancies would need to be reassessed at 40 weeks' gestation. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development of pre-eclampsia within 4 weeks of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 38: comparison of performance at 31-34 vs 35-37 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To compare the performance of screening by soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) to placental growth factor (PlGF) ratio > 38 for the prediction of delivery with pre-eclampsia (PE) at < 1 week and < 4 weeks from assessment when the test is carried out at 31-34 vs 35-37 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending a third-trimester ultrasound scan as part of routine pregnancy care; the visit was at 30-34 weeks' gestation in the first phase of the study and at 35-37 weeks in the second phase. Serum sFlt-1 and PlGF were measured and their ratio calculated. We estimated the detection rate (DR) and false-positive rate (FPR) of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 38 for predicting delivery with PE at < 1 week and < 4 weeks after assessment and compared the performance of screening when the test was carried out at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 vs 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation.

RESULTS

The study population included 8063 singleton pregnancies that were examined at 31-34 weeks and 3703 at 35-37 weeks. Delivery with PE occurred at < 1, < 4 and ≥ 4 weeks from assessment in five (0.1%), 29 (0.4%) and 202 (2.5%) women assessed at 31-34 weeks, respectively, and in seven (0.2%), 39 (1.1%) and 21 (0.6%) of those assessed at 35-37 weeks. In women without PE, the median sFlt-1/PlGF ratio increased with gestational age at screening and a ratio of 38 was just below the 99^th percentile at 32 weeks' gestation and just below the 90^th percentile at 36 weeks. In the two gestational windows, the DR of PE delivering < 4 weeks from assessment was similar (75.9% (95% CI, 56.5-89.7%) vs 79.5% (95% CI, 63.5-90.7%)), but the FPR was substantially lower at 31-34 weeks than at 35-37 weeks (1.7% (95% CI, 1.4-2.0%) vs 9.6% (95% CI, 8.7-10.6%)). The number of cases with PE delivering < 1 week from assessment was small, but similarly, in the two gestational windows, the DR was comparable (80.0% (95% CI, 28.4-99.5%) vs 85.7% (95% CI, 42.1-99.6%)), and the FPR was substantially lower at 31-34 weeks than at 35-37 weeks (1.9% (95% CI, 1.6-2.2%) vs 10.2% (95% CI, 9.3-11.3%)).

CONCLUSION

The performance of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 38 in the prediction of delivery with PE at < 1 and < 4 weeks from assessment is substantially different when the assessment is at 31-34 weeks' gestation compared to at 35-37 weeks. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Screening for pre-eclampsia using sFlt-1/PlGF ratio cut-off of 38 at 30-37 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate a soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) to placental growth factor (PlGF) ratio cut-off of 38 for the prediction of pre-eclampsia (PE) in routine assessment in singleton pregnancies at 30-37 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending a third-trimester ultrasound scan at 30-37 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care. Serum sFlt-1 and PlGF were measured and their ratio was calculated. We estimated the detection rate (DR), false-positive rate (FPR), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio >38 for the prediction of delivery with PE at < 1, < 4 and ≥ 4 weeks after assessment.

RESULTS

The study population of 12 305 singleton pregnancies was examined at a median of 32.4 (range, 30.0-36.9) weeks and included 14 (0.11%), 77 (0.63%) and 227 (1.84%) cases that subsequently delivered with PE at < 1, < 4 or ≥ 4 weeks' after assessment, respectively. The DR, FPR, PPV and NPV of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 38 in the prediction of delivery with PE at < 1 week were 78.6%, 4.5%, 1.9% and 99.97%, respectively; the values for delivery with PE at < 4 weeks were 76.6%, 4.1%, 10.4% and 99.85% and for delivery with PE ≥ 4 weeks were 20.7%, 4.3%, 8.3% and 98.47%.

CONCLUSION

In routine screening of singleton pregnancies, the performance of a sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 38 is modest for the prediction of delivery with PE at < 1 and at < 4 weeks after assessment and poor for the prediction of delivery with PE at ≥ 4 weeks after assessment. A sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 38 predicted 79% of cases delivering with PE at < 1 week after assessment, at a FPR of 4.5%; consequently, a policy of hospitalizing patients with a ratio > 38 would potentially lead to unnecessary hospitalization in 4.5% of pregnancies and a ratio of ≤ 38 would falsely reassure one fifth of women who will deliver with PE within 1 week of assessment. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.