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Yuan P, Li J, Aruffo E, Gatov E, Li Q, Zheng T, Ogden NH, Sander B, Heffernan J, Collier S, Tan Y, Li J, Arino J, Bélair J, Watmough J, Kong JD, Moyles I, Zhu H. Efficacy of a "stay-at-home" policy on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Toronto, Canada: a mathematical modelling study. CMAJ Open 2022; 10:E367-E378. [PMID: 35440484 PMCID: PMC9022937 DOI: 10.9778/cmajo.20200242] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Globally, nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19, including stay-at-home policies, limitations on gatherings and closure of public spaces, are being lifted. We explored the effect of lifting a stay-at-home policy on virus resurgence under different conditions. METHODS Using confirmed case data from Toronto, Canada, between Feb. 24 and June 24, 2020, we ran a compartmental model with household structure to simulate the impact of the stay-at-home policy considering different levels of compliance. We estimated threshold values for the maximum number of contacts, probability of transmission and testing rates required for the safe reopening of the community. RESULTS After the implementation of the stay-at-home policy, the contact rate outside the household fell by 39% (from 11.58 daily contacts to 7.11). The effective reproductive number decreased from 3.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.02-4.14) on Mar. 12 to 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.89) on May 6. Strong adherence to stay-at-home policies appeared to prevent SARS-CoV-2 resurgence, but extending the duration of stay-at-home policies beyond 2 months had little added effect on cumulative cases (25 958 for 65 days of a stay-at-home policy and 23 461 for 95 days, by July 2, 2020) and deaths (1404 for 65 days and 1353 for 95 days). To avoid a resurgence, the average number of contacts per person per day should be kept below 9, with strict nonpharmaceutical interventions in place. INTERPRETATION Our study demonstrates that the stay-at-home policy implemented in Toronto in March 2020 had a substantial impact on mitigating the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In the context of the early pandemic, before the emergence of variants of concern, reopening schools and workplaces was possible only with other nonpharmaceutical interventions in place.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pei Yuan
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Juan Li
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Elena Aruffo
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Evgenia Gatov
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Qi Li
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Tingting Zheng
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Nicholas H Ogden
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Beate Sander
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Jane Heffernan
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Sarah Collier
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Yi Tan
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Jun Li
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Julien Arino
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Jacques Bélair
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - James Watmough
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Jude Dzevela Kong
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Iain Moyles
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
| | - Huaiping Zhu
- Canadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB
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McCarthy Z, Athar S, Alavinejad M, Chow C, Moyles I, Nah K, Kong JD, Agrawal N, Jaber A, Keane L, Liu S, Nahirniak M, Jean DS, Romanescu R, Stockdale J, Seet BT, Coudeville L, Thommes E, Taurel AF, Lee J, Shin T, Arino J, Heffernan J, Chit A, Wu J. Quantifying the annual incidence and underestimation of seasonal influenza: A modelling approach. Theor Biol Med Model 2020; 17:11. [PMID: 32646444 PMCID: PMC7347407 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-020-00129-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2020] [Accepted: 05/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Seasonal influenza poses a significant public health and economic burden, associated with the outcome of infection and resulting complications. The true burden of the disease is difficult to capture due to the wide range of presentation, from asymptomatic cases to non-respiratory complications such as cardiovascular events, and its seasonal variability. An understanding of the magnitude of the true annual incidence of influenza is important to support prevention and control policy development and to evaluate the impact of preventative measures such as vaccination. METHODS We use a dynamic disease transmission model, laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data, and randomized-controlled trial (RCT) data to quantify the underestimation factor, expansion factor, and symptomatic influenza illnesses in the US and Canada during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 influenza seasons. RESULTS Based on 2 case definitions, we estimate between 0.42-3.2% and 0.33-1.2% of symptomatic influenza illnesses were laboratory-confirmed in Canada during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons, respectively. In the US, we estimate between 0.08-0.61% and 0.07-0.33% of symptomatic influenza illnesses were laboratory-confirmed in the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons, respectively. We estimated the symptomatic influenza illnesses in Canada to be 0.32-2.4 million in 2011-2012 and 1.8-8.2 million in 2012-2013. In the US, we estimate the number of symptomatic influenza illnesses to be 4.4-34 million in 2011-2012 and 23-102 million in 2012-2013. CONCLUSIONS We illustrate that monitoring a representative group within a population may aid in effectively modelling the transmission of infectious diseases such as influenza. In particular, the utilization of RCTs in models may enhance the accuracy of epidemiological parameter estimation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zachary McCarthy
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada.,Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Fields-CQAM Mathematics for Public Health Laboratory, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada
| | - Safia Athar
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada.,Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Fields-CQAM Mathematics for Public Health Laboratory, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada
| | - Mahnaz Alavinejad
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada.,Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Fields-CQAM Mathematics for Public Health Laboratory, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada
| | - Christopher Chow
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada.,Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Fields-CQAM Mathematics for Public Health Laboratory, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada
| | - Iain Moyles
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Kyeongah Nah
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada.,Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Fields-CQAM Mathematics for Public Health Laboratory, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada
| | - Jude D Kong
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada.,Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Fields-CQAM Mathematics for Public Health Laboratory, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada
| | | | - Ahmed Jaber
- Department of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, V5A 1S6, BC, Canada
| | - Laura Keane
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Sam Liu
- McMaster University, Hamilton, L8S 4L8, ON, Canada
| | - Myles Nahirniak
- Department of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, V5A 1S6, BC, Canada
| | - Danielle St Jean
- Department of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, V5A 1S6, BC, Canada
| | - Razvan Romanescu
- Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health System, Toronto, M5G 1X5, ON, Canada
| | - Jessica Stockdale
- Department of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, V5A 1S6, BC, Canada
| | - Bruce T Seet
- Sanofi Pasteur, Toronto, M2R 3T4, Canada.,Department of Molecular Genetics, Toronto, M5S 1A8, ON, Canada
| | | | - Edward Thommes
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Department of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, V5A 1S6, BC, Canada.,Sanofi Pasteur, Toronto, M2R 3T4, Canada
| | | | - Jason Lee
- Sanofi Pasteur, Toronto, M2R 3T4, Canada
| | | | - Julien Arino
- University of Manitoba, Department of Mathematics, Winnipeg, R3T 2N2, MB, Canada
| | - Jane Heffernan
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada.,Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.,Fields-CQAM Mathematics for Public Health Laboratory, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada
| | - Ayman Chit
- Leslie Dan School of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, M5S 3M2, ON, Canada.,Sanofi Pasteur, Swiftwater, 18370, PA, USA
| | - Jianhong Wu
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada. .,Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada. .,Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada. .,Fields-CQAM Mathematics for Public Health Laboratory, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, ON, Canada.
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