Development of a Multivariable Model to Predict the Need for Bone Marrow Sampling in Persons With Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance : A Cohort Study Nested in a Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) are asymptomatic precursor conditions to multiple myeloma and related disorders. Smoldering multiple myeloma is distinguished from MGUS by 10% or greater bone marrow plasma cells (BMPC) on sampling, has a higher risk for progression, and requires specialist management.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a multivariable prediction model that predicts the probability that a person with presumed MGUS has 10% or greater BMPC (SMM or worse by bone marrow criteria) to inform the decision to obtain a bone marrow sample and compare its performance to the Mayo Clinic risk stratification model.

DESIGN

iStopMM (Iceland Screens, Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma), a prospective population-based screening study of MGUS. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03327597).

SETTING

Icelandic population of adults aged 40 years or older.

PATIENTS

1043 persons with IgG, IgA, light-chain, and biclonal MGUS detected by screening and an interpretable bone marrow sample.

MEASUREMENTS

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance isotype; monoclonal protein concentration; free light-chain ratio; and total IgG, IgM, and IgA concentrations were used as predictors. Bone marrow plasma cells were categorized as 0% to 4%, 5% to 9%, 10% to 14%, or 15% or greater.

RESULTS

The c-statistic for SMM or worse was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.82 to 0.88), and calibration was excellent (intercept, -0.07; slope, 0.95). At a threshold of 10% predicted risk for SMM or worse, sensitivity was 86%, specificity was 67%, positive predictive value was 32%, and negative predictive value was 96%. Compared with the Mayo Clinic model, the net benefit for the decision to refer for sampling was between 0.13 and 0.30 higher over a range of plausible low-risk thresholds.

LIMITATION

The prediction model will require external validation.

CONCLUSION

This accurate prediction model for SMM or worse was developed in a population-based cohort of persons with presumed MGUS and may be used to defer bone marrow sampling and referral to hematology.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

International Myeloma Foundation and the European Research Council.

Prior cancer and risk of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance: a population-based study in Iceland and Sweden

There is some evidence that a prior cancer is a risk factor for the development of multiple myeloma (MM). If this is true, prior cancer should be associated with higher prevalence or increased progression rate of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), the precursor of MM and related disorders. Those with a history of cancer might therefore present a target population for MGUS screening. This two-part study is the first study to evaluate the relationship of MGUS and prior cancers. First, we evaluated whether prior cancers were associated with having MGUS at the time of screening in the Iceland Screens Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma (iStopMM) study that includes 75,422 individuals screened for MGUS. Next, we evaluated the association of prior cancer and the progression of MGUS to MM and related disorders in a population-based cohort of 13,790 Swedish individuals with MGUS. A history of prior cancer was associated with a modest increase in the risk of MGUS (odds ratio (OR)= 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.20). This excess risk was limited to prior cancers in the year preceding MGUS screening. A history of prior cancer associated with the progression of MGUS, except for myeloid malignancies which were associated with lower risk of progression (hazard ratio (HR)=0.37; 95%CI: 0.16-0.89; p=0.028). Our findings indicate that a prior cancer are not a significant aetiological factor in plasma cell disorders. The findings do not warrant MGUS screening or different management of MGUS in those with a prior cancer.

Handling of hemolyzed serum samples in clinical chemistry laboratories: the Nordic hemolysis project

Background Some clinical chemistry measurement methods are vulnerable to interference if hemolyzed serum samples are used. The aims of this study were: (1) to obtain updated information about how hemolysis affects clinical chemistry test results on different instrument platforms used in Nordic laboratories, and (2) to obtain data on how test results from hemolyzed samples are reported in Nordic laboratories. Methods Four identical samples containing different degrees of hemolysis were prepared and distributed to 145 laboratories in the Nordic countries. The laboratories were asked to measure the concentration of cell-free hemoglobin (Hb), together with 15 clinical chemistry analytes. In addition, the laboratories completed a questionnaire about how hemolyzed samples are handled and reported. Results Automated detection of hemolysis in all routine patient samples was used by 63% of laboratories, and 88% had written procedures on how to handle hemolyzed samples. The different instrument platforms measured comparable mean Hb concentrations in the four samples. For most analytes, hemolysis caused a homogenous degree of interference regardless of the instrument platform used, except for alkaline phosphatase (ALP), bilirubin (total) and creatine kinase (CK). The recommended cut-off points for rejection of a result varied substantially between the manufacturers. The laboratories differed in how they reported test results, even when they used the same type of instrument. Conclusions Most of the analytes were homogeneously affected by hemolysis, regardless of the instrument used. There is large variation, however, between the laboratories on how they report test results from hemolyzed samples, even when they use the same type of instrument.

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin I Is a Strong Predictor of Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in the AGES-Reykjavik Community-Based Cohort of Older Individuals

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to investigate the predictive power of a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) assay for cardiovascular events and mortality in a large population of older community dwellers.

METHODS

Blood was collected from 5764 individuals (age 66-98 years) during the period of 2002-2006 and the outcome as to all-cause death and incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) followed up to 10 years. hs-cTnI (Abbott) was measured in serum to assess the association of this marker with CVD, CHD and death, and finally, to compare the results with conventional risk factors by multivariable statistical analysis.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range) concentrations of hs-cTnI were 8.4 ng/L (5.6-14.2 ng/L) and 5.3 ng/L (3.8-8.1 ng/L) in men (2416) and women (3275), respectively, and the concentrations increased linearly with age. Outcomes as to all-cause death and incidence of CVD and CHD were significantly associated with increasing concentrations of hs-cTnI beginning well below the 99th percentile concentrations. The associations with outcome remained after adjustments for conventional risk factors and were similar in men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that hs-cTnI reflects the status of the myocardium even in seemingly healthy individuals and that the measurements of hs-cTnI may be useful for primary prediction of heart disease; this should form the basis for future prospective clinical trials for determining whether measuring hs-cTnI can be used in the prevention of CVD/CHD.

Familial aggregation of IgAD and autoimmunity

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of autoimmunity is thought to be increased among IgA deficient (IgAD) individuals. However, it is currently unclear if the two conditions coincide within families.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prevalence of autoimmunity among IgAD individuals and their 1 degrees relatives.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A total of 43 IgAD individuals (32 adults and 11 children) and all available 1 degrees relatives were evaluated by a physician. A family history of autoimmunity was obtained, together with physical examination and a structured questionnaire that focused on symptoms and signs suggestive of autoimmunity.

RESULTS

Eight of the 32 (25%) adult IgAD, were found to have definite autoimmunity, with organ specific- and systemic autoimmune diseases equally distributed. None of the IgAD children had autoimmunity. Among the 1 degrees relatives, 27/269 (10%) had autoimmunity, compared to an estimate of 5% in the general population (p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Autoimmune diseases are highly prevalent in individuals with IgAD and more common in their 1 degrees relatives than expected, thus, suggesting a possible common genetic component.