Bridging the gap - estimation of 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel

OBJECTIVES

Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany like other countries lacked adaptive population-based panels to monitor the spread of epidemic diseases.

METHODS

To fill a gap in population-based estimates needed for winter 2022/23 we resampled in the German SARS-CoV-2 cohort study MuSPAD in mid-2022, including characterization of systemic cellular and humoral immune responses by interferon-γ-release assay (IGRA) and CLIA/IVN assay. We were able to confirm categorization of our study population into four groups with differing protection levels against severe COVID-19 courses based on literature synthesis. Using these estimates, we assessed potential healthcare burden for winter 2022/23 in different scenarios with varying assumptions on transmissibility, pathogenicity, new variants, and vaccine booster campaigns in ordinary differential equation models.

RESULTS

We included 9921 participants from eight German regions. While 85% of individuals were located in one of the two highest protection categories, hospitalization estimates from scenario modeling were highly dependent on viral variant characteristics ranging from 30-300% compared to the 02/2021 peak. Our results were openly communicated and published to an epidemic panel network and a newly established modeling network.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate feasibility of a rapid epidemic panel to provide complex immune protection levels for inclusion in dynamic disease burden modeling scenarios.

Estimates of protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 in Germany before the 2022/2023 winter season: the IMMUNEBRIDGE project

PURPOSE

Despite the need to generate valid and reliable estimates of protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe course of COVID-19 for the German population in summer 2022, there was a lack of systematically collected population-based data allowing for the assessment of the protection level in real time.

METHODS

In the IMMUNEBRIDGE project, we harmonised data and biosamples for nine population-/hospital-based studies (total number of participants n = 33,637) to provide estimates for protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 between June and November 2022. Based on evidence synthesis, we formed a combined endpoint of protection levels based on the number of self-reported infections/vaccinations in combination with nucleocapsid/spike antibody responses ("confirmed exposures"). Four confirmed exposures represented the highest protection level, and no exposure represented the lowest.

RESULTS

Most participants were seropositive against the spike antigen; 37% of the participants ≥ 79 years had less than four confirmed exposures (highest level of protection) and 5% less than three. In the subgroup of participants with comorbidities, 46-56% had less than four confirmed exposures. We found major heterogeneity across federal states, with 4-28% of participants having less than three confirmed exposures.

CONCLUSION

Using serological analyses, literature synthesis and infection dynamics during the survey period, we observed moderate to high levels of protection against severe COVID-19, whereas the protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection was low across all age groups. We found relevant protection gaps in the oldest age group and amongst individuals with comorbidities, indicating a need for additional protective measures in these groups.

Attributes Characterizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Tests That Influence Preferences of Individuals Eligible for Screening in Germany: A Qualitative Study

PURPOSE

This qualitative study is part of the SIGMO study, which evaluates general populations' preferences for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in Germany using a discrete choice experiment. Attribute identification and selection are essential in the construction of choice tasks and should be evidence-based ensuring that attributes are relevant to potential beneficiaries and contribute to overall utility. Therefore, this qualitative study aims to identify relevant attributes characterizing CRC screening tests from the perspective of those eligible for screening in Germany.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Individuals aged 50 to 60 were purposively selected. A questioning route was developed and piloted. Four focus groups (FG) (n=20) were conducted (November 2019) with two moderators and one observer each. FGs were audio recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Attributes were deductively assigned based on a priori identified attribute categories, and inductively derived.

RESULTS

Across FGs, 24 attributes (n=293 codes) were discussed, five of which (sedation, inability to work, transportation home, predictive values, waiting time for screening colonoscopy) were inductively derived (n=76 codes). Four attributes identified a priori were not addressed in any FG. The most frequently discussed attribute category was procedural characteristics, followed by measures of screening test validity, benefits, harms, and structural characteristics of health care. The most commonly addressed attributes were preprocedural bowel cleansing, kind of procedure, and predictive values.

CONCLUSION

Newly identified attributes characterizing CRC screening tests from an individual's perspective, and a priori identified attributes not addressed by any FG stress the added value of qualitative research and thereby the importance of applying a mix of methods in identifying and selecting attributes for the construction of choice tasks. This study meets the requirements for a transparent and detailed presentation of the qualitative methods used in this process, which has rarely been the case before.