[Trend analysis and prediction of colorectal cancer morbidity and mortality of residents in urban areas of Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015]

Objective: To analyze the trend of mortality and incidence of colorectal cancer among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and to predict the mortality of colorectal cancer from 2016 to 2025. Methods: The mortality data of colorectal cancer among urban residents in Guangzhou were collected from the death registration of malignant tumors of Guangzhou Health Statistics Bureau (1972-1979), Guangzhou Health Statistics (1980-2001), Guangzhou Cancer Registration Annual Report (2002-2009) and China Cancer Registration Annual Report (2010-2015). The incidence of colorectal cancer was collected from Guangzhou Cancer Registration Annual Report (2002-2009) and China Cancer Registration Annual Report (2010-2015). The incidence and mortality data of colorectal cancer coded as C18-C21 in 10th Edition of International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) were obtained from the above data, and the demographic data were from the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics. Joinpoint model was used to calculate the annual change percentage (APC) and average annual change percentage (AAPC) of colorectal cancer mortality and incidence among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and from 2002 to 2015. ARIMA model was used to predict colorectal cancer mortality from 2016 to 2025. Results: There were 19 309 colorectal cancer deaths among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015. The crude mortality rate of colorectal cancer increased from 4.33/100 000 to 24.89/100 000 (AAPC=4.2%, P<0.001). A total of 24 033 new cases of colorectal cancer were reported in Guangzhou from 2002 to 2015. The crude incidence rate of colorectal cancer increased from 22.95/100 000 to 52.81/100 000 (AAPC=6.6%, P<0.001). The mortality rate of colorectal cancer among urban residents of Guangzhou would continuously increase from 2016 to 2025 and reach 29.53/100 000 in 2025. Conclusion: The mortality rate of colorectal cancer among urban residents of Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and the incidence rate of colorectal cancer from 2002 to 2015 both show an upward trend. The mortality rate will increase from 2016 to 2025.

[The effect of endocapillary hypercellularity lesions on the renal prognosis and response to immunosuppressive therapy in IgA nephropathy]

In this retrospective cohort study, we aim to evaluate the effect of endocapillary hypercellularity (E) lesions on the renal prognosis and response to immunosuppressive therapy, especially diffuse endocapillary hypercellularity lesion in IgA nephropathy (IgAN). A total of 365 patients with IgAN and E lesions and 31 patients with diffuse E lesions and over 12-month follow-up period were included in this study. We performed an 1∶1 propensity score to identify controls with matched clinical and pathological features from 769 IgAN patients without E lesions. The end-point was defined as a 30% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end-stage kidney disease. The kidney survival of the two groups was compared by Kaplan-Meier analysis. During median follow-up period of 41 months, kidney survival rates in patients with E lesions were 96.0% at 1 year, 83.6% at 3 years, 67.7% at 5 years; while they were 96.9% at 1 year, 83.6% at 3 years, and 68.7% at 5 years in patients without E lesions (P=0.265).The HR of immunosuppressive therapy was 1.038 (95%CI 0.749-1.440) and 1.113 (95%CI 0.770-1.609) in patients not receiving immunosuppressive therapy (P=0.781). (2) During median follow-up period of 52.5 months, the kidney survival rates in patients with diffuse E-lesion were 100.0% at 1 year, 96.2% at 3 years, 74.5% at 5 years; while they were 96.2% at 1 year, 82.3% at 3 years, and 63.7% at 5 years in patients without E-lesion (P=0.158). The HR of immunosuppressive therapy was 0.625 (95%CI 0.213-1.839) and 0.447 (95%CI 0.028-7.191) in patients not receiving immunosuppressive therapy (P=0.825). E lesion or diffuse E lesion may not be associated with prognosis or response to immunosuppressive therapy.