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Björkman A, Shakely D, Ali AS, Morris U, Mkali H, Abbas AK, Al-Mafazy AW, Haji KA, Mcha J, Omar R, Cook J, Elfving K, Petzold M, Sachs MC, Aydin-Schmidt B, Drakeley C, Msellem M, Mårtensson A. From high to low malaria transmission in Zanzibar-challenges and opportunities to achieve elimination. BMC Med 2019; 17:14. [PMID: 30665398 PMCID: PMC6341737 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-018-1243-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2018] [Accepted: 12/17/2018] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Substantial global progress in the control of malaria in recent years has led to increased commitment to its potential elimination. Whether this is possible in high transmission areas of sub-Saharan Africa remains unclear. Zanzibar represents a unique case study of such attempt, where modern tools and strategies for malaria treatment and vector control have been deployed since 2003. METHODS We have studied temporal trends of comprehensive malariometric indices in two districts with over 100,000 inhabitants each. The analyses included triangulation of data from annual community-based cross-sectional surveys, health management information systems, vital registry and entomological sentinel surveys. RESULTS The interventions, with sustained high-community uptake, were temporally associated with a major malaria decline, most pronounced between 2004 and 2007 and followed by a sustained state of low transmission. In 2015, the Plasmodium falciparum community prevalence of 0.43% (95% CI 0.23-0.73) by microscopy or rapid diagnostic test represented 96% reduction compared with that in 2003. The P. falciparum and P. malariae prevalence by PCR was 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-2.3), and the annual P. falciparum incidence was estimated to 8 infections including 2.8 clinical episodes per 1000 inhabitants. The total parasite load decreased over 1000-fold (99.9%) between 2003 and 2015. The incidence of symptomatic malaria at health facilities decreased by 94% with a trend towards relatively higher incidence in age groups > 5 years, a more pronounced seasonality and with reported travel history to/from Tanzania mainland as a higher risk factor. All-cause mortality among children < 5 years decreased by 72% between 2002 and 2007 mainly following the introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapies whereas the main reduction in malaria incidence followed upon the vector control interventions from 2006. Human biting rates decreased by 98% with a major shift towards outdoor biting by Anopheles arabiensis. CONCLUSIONS Zanzibar provides new evidence of the feasibility of reaching uniquely significant and sustainable malaria reduction (pre-elimination) in a previously high endemic region in sub-Saharan Africa. The data highlight constraints of optimistic prognostic modelling studies. New challenges, mainly with outdoor transmission, a large asymptomatic parasite reservoir and imported infections, require novel tools and reoriented strategies to prevent a rebound effect and achieve elimination.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Björkman
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institutet, Solnavägen 9, SE-171 77, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - D Shakely
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institutet, Solnavägen 9, SE-171 77, Stockholm, Sweden.,Health Metrics at Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - A S Ali
- Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Programme, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - U Morris
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institutet, Solnavägen 9, SE-171 77, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - H Mkali
- MEASURE Evaluation, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - A K Abbas
- Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Programme, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - A-W Al-Mafazy
- Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Programme, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - K A Haji
- Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Programme, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - J Mcha
- Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Programme, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - R Omar
- Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Programme, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - J Cook
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institutet, Solnavägen 9, SE-171 77, Stockholm, Sweden.,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - K Elfving
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institutet, Solnavägen 9, SE-171 77, Stockholm, Sweden.,Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - M Petzold
- Centre for Applied Biostatistics, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - M C Sachs
- Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - B Aydin-Schmidt
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institutet, Solnavägen 9, SE-171 77, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - C Drakeley
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - M Msellem
- Training and Research, Mnazi Mmoja Hospital, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - A Mårtensson
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, International Maternal and Child Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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