Applicability of an unsupervised cluster model developed on first wave COVID-19 patients in second/third wave critically ill patients

OBJECTIVE

To validate the unsupervised cluster model (USCM) developed during the first pandemic wave in a cohort of critically ill patients from the second and third pandemic waves.

DESIGN

Observational, retrospective, multicentre study.

SETTING

Intensive Care Unit (ICU).

PATIENTS

Adult patients admitted with COVID-19 and respiratory failure during the second and third pandemic waves.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST

Collected data included demographic and clinical characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory tests and ICU outcomes. To validate our original USCM, we assigned a phenotype to each patient of the validation cohort. The performance of the classification was determined by Silhouette coefficient (SC) and general linear modelling. In a post-hoc analysis we developed and validated a USCM specific to the validation set. The model's performance was measured using accuracy test and area under curve (AUC) ROC.

RESULTS

A total of 2330 patients (mean age 63 [53-82] years, 1643 (70.5%) male, median APACHE II score (12 [9-16]) and SOFA score (4 [3-6]) were included. The ICU mortality was 27.2%. The USCM classified patients into 3 clinical phenotypes: A (n = 1206 patients, 51.8%); B (n = 618 patients, 26.5%), and C (n = 506 patients, 21.7%). The characteristics of patients within each phenotype were significantly different from the original population. The SC was -0.007 and the inclusion of phenotype classification in a regression model did not improve the model performance (0.79 and 0.78 ROC for original and validation model). The post-hoc model performed better than the validation model (SC -0.08).

CONCLUSION

Models developed using machine learning techniques during the first pandemic wave cannot be applied with adequate performance to patients admitted in subsequent waves without prior validation.

Prior influenza vaccine is not a risk factor for bacterial coinfection in patients admitted to the ICU due to severe influenza

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the prior usage of the flu vaccine is a risk factor for bacterial co-infection in patients with severe influenza.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective observational cohort study of subjects admitted to the ICU. A propensity score matching, and logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders were carried out to evaluate the association between prior influenza vaccination and bacterial co-infection.

SETTINGS

184 ICUs in Spain due to severe influenza.

PATIENTS

Patients included in the Spanish prospective flu registry.

INTERVENTIONS

Flu vaccine prior to the hospital admission.

RESULTS

A total of 4175 subjects were included in the study. 489 (11.7%) received the flu vaccine prior to develop influenza infection. Prior vaccinated patients were older 71 [61-78], and predominantly male 65.4%, with at least one comorbid condition 88.5%. Prior vaccination was not associated with bacterial co-infection in the logistic regression model (OR: 1.017; 95%CI 0.803-1.288; p=0.885). After matching, the average treatment effect of prior influenza vaccine on bacterial co-infection was not statistically significant when assessed by propensity score matching (p=0.87), nearest neighbor matching (p=0.59) and inverse probability weighting (p=0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

No association was identified between prior influenza vaccine and bacterial coinfection in patients admitted to the ICU due to severe influenza. Post influenza vaccination studies are necessary to continue evaluating the possible benefits.

Prior influenza vaccine is not a risk factor for bacterial coinfection in patients admitted to the ICU due to severe influenza

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the prior usage of the flu vaccine is a risk factor for bacterial co-infection in patients with severe influenza.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective observational cohort study of subjects admitted to the ICU. A propensity score matching, and logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders were carried out to evaluate the association between prior influenza vaccination and bacterial co-infection.

SETTINGS

184 ICUs in Spain due to severe influenza.

PATIENTS

Patients included in the Spanish prospective flu registry.

INTERVENTIONS

Flu vaccine prior to the hospital admission.

RESULTS

A total of 4175 subjects were included in the study. 489 (11.7%) received the flu vaccine prior to develop influenza infection. Prior vaccinated patients were older 71 [61-78], and predominantly male 65.4%, with at least one comorbid condition 88.5%. Prior vaccination was not associated with bacterial co-infection in the logistic regression model (OR: 1.017; 95%CI 0.803-1.288; p=0.885). After matching, the average treatment effect of prior influenza vaccine on bacterial co-infection was not statistically significant when assessed by propensity score matching (p=0.87), nearest neighbor matching (p=0.59) and inverse probability weighting (p=0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

No association was identified between prior influenza vaccine and bacterial coinfection in patients admitted to the ICU due to severe influenza. Post influenza vaccination studies are necessary to continue evaluating the possible benefits.

Early oseltamivir treatment improves survival in critically ill patients with influenza pneumonia

Background

The relationship between early oseltamivir treatment (within 48 h of symptom onset) and mortality in patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) with severe influenza is disputed. This study aimed to investigate the association between early oseltamivir treatment and ICU mortality in critically ill patients with influenza pneumonia.

Methods

This was an observational study of patients with influenza pneumonia admitted to 184 ICUs in Spain during 2009-2018. The primary outcome was to evaluate the association between early oseltamivir treatment and ICU mortality compared with later treatment. Secondary outcomes were to compare the duration of mechanical ventilation and ICU length of stay between the early and later oseltamivir treatment groups. To reduce biases related to observational studies, propensity score matching and a competing risk analysis were performed.

Results

During the study period, 2124 patients met the inclusion criteria. All patients had influenza pneumonia and received oseltamivir before ICU admission. Of these, 529 (24.9%) received early oseltamivir treatment. In the multivariate analysis, early treatment was associated with reduced ICU mortality (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.95). After propensity score matching, early oseltamivir treatment was associated with improved survival rates in the Cox regression (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% CI 0.61-0.99) and competing risk (subdistribution hazard ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.53-0.85) analyses. The ICU length of stay and duration of mechanical ventilation were shorter in patients receiving early treatment.

Conclusions

Early oseltamivir treatment is associated with improved survival rates in critically ill patients with influenza pneumonia, and may decrease ICU length of stay and mechanical ventilation duration.