Candidaemia and a risk predictive model for overall mortality: a prospective multicentre study

Background

Candidaemia is associated with high mortality. Variables associated with mortality have been published previously, but not developed into a risk predictive model for mortality. We sought to describe the current epidemiology of candidaemia in Australia, analyse predictors of 30-day all-cause mortality, and develop and validate a mortality risk predictive model.

Methods

Adults with candidaemia were studied prospectively over 12 months at eight institutions. Clinical and laboratory variables at time of blood culture-positivity were subject to multivariate analysis for association with 30-day all-cause mortality. A predictive score for mortality was examined by area under receiver operator characteristic curves and a historical data set was used for validation.

Results

The median age of 133 patients with candidaemia was 62 years; 76 (57%) were male and 57 (43%) were female. Co-morbidities included underlying haematologic malignancy (n = 20; 15%), and solid organ malignancy in (n = 25; 19%); 55 (41%) were in an intensive care unit (ICU). Non-albicans Candida spp. accounted for 61% of cases (81/133). All-cause 30-day mortality was 31%. A gastrointestinal or unknown source was associated with higher overall mortality than an intravascular or urologic source (p < 0.01). A risk predictive score based on age > 65 years, ICU admission, chronic organ dysfunction, preceding surgery within 30 days, haematological malignancy, source of candidaemia and antibiotic therapy for ≥10 days stratified patients into < 20% or ≥ 20% predicted mortality. The model retained accuracy when validated against a historical dataset (n = 741).

Conclusions

Mortality in patients with candidaemia remains high. A simple mortality risk predictive score stratifying patients with candidaemia into < 20% and ≥ 20% 30-day mortality is presented. This model uses information available at time of candidaemia diagnosis is easy to incorporate into decision support systems. Further validation of this model is warranted.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4065-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mucormycosis in Australia: contemporary epidemiology and outcomes

Mucormycosis is the second most common cause of invasive mould infection and causes disease in diverse hosts, including those who are immuno-competent. We conducted a multicentre retrospective study of proven and probable cases of mucormycosis diagnosed between 2004-2012 to determine the epidemiology and outcome determinants in Australia. Seventy-four cases were identified (63 proven, 11 probable). The majority (54.1%) were caused by Rhizopus spp. Patients who sustained trauma were more likely to have non-Rhizopus infections relative to patients without trauma (OR 9.0, p 0.001, 95% CI 2.1-42.8). Haematological malignancy (48.6%), chemotherapy (42.9%), corticosteroids (52.7%), diabetes mellitus (27%) and trauma (22.9%) were the most common co-morbidities or risk factors. Rheumatological/autoimmune disorders occurred in nine (12.1%) instances. Eight (10.8%) cases had no underlying co-morbidity and were more likely to have associated trauma (7/8; 87.5% versus 10/66; 15.2%; p <0.001). Disseminated infection was common (39.2%). Apophysomyces spp. and Saksenaea spp. caused infection in immuno-competent hosts, most frequently associated with trauma and affected sites other than lung and sinuses. The 180-day mortality was 56.7%. The strongest predictors of mortality were rheumatological/autoimmune disorder (OR = 24.0, p 0.038 95% CI 1.2-481.4), haematological malignancy (OR = 7.7, p 0.001, 95% CI 2.3-25.2) and admission to intensive care unit (OR = 4.2, p 0.02, 95% CI 1.3-13.8). Most deaths occurred within one month. Thereafter we observed divergence in survival between the haematological and non-haematological populations (p 0.006). The mortality of mucormycosis remains particularly high in the immuno-compromised host. Underlying rheumatological/autoimmune disorders are a previously under-appreciated risk for infection and poor outcome.