Cardiovascular mortality in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic: a comparison between underlying and multiple causes of death

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic has differentially impacted cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality worldwide. Causes of death misclassification may be one of the reasons. We evaluated the impact of the pandemic on CVD mortality in Brazil, comparing underlying causes (UCs) and multiple causes (MCs) of death.

STUDY DESIGN

Ecological time-series study.

METHODS

An ecological, time-series study was conducted analysing age-standardised death rates for CVD, from epidemiological week (EW) 10/2020 to 39/2021, using data from the Mortality Information System, Brazil. CVD was defined using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) coding, if reported as UC or MC of death. Observed and expected data (mean for the same EW, 2017-2019) were compared. Risk ratios (RiRs) were analysed, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated.

RESULTS

Age-standardised mortality rate for CVD as UC of death was 165.8 (95%CI: 165.4-166.3) per 100,000 inhabitants, similar to what was expected (165.6/100,000, 95%CI: 165.2-166.1, RiR = 1.00). There was increased out-of-hospital mortality (RiR = 1.18; 95%CI: 1.17-1.19) and deaths of ill-defined causes (RiR = 1.43; 95%CI: 1.42-1.44). The increase in out-of-hospital deaths was more pronounced in the North (RiR = 1.33; 95%CI 1.30-1.36) region, with a less resilient health system. Conversely, as MCs of death, there was a 10% increase in CVD mortality (observed: 243.2 [95%CI: 242.7-243.7], expected: 221.6 [95%CI: 221.1-222.1] per 100,000). An increase also occurred in the North and Central West regions (RiR = 1.16; 95%CI: 1.15-1.18), among men (RiR = 1.11; 95%CI: 1.11-1.12) and individuals aged ≥60 years (RiR = 1.11; 95%CI: 1.10-1.11).

CONCLUSIONS

During the pandemic, mortality rates for CVD as MCs of death increased in Brazil, whereas as UC mortality rates did not change. Higher out-of-hospital mortality, misclassification, and competing causes of death may explain this pattern.

Conquering stroke epidemiological statistics in Brazil an innovative initiative from the Brazilian Society of Cardiology

Background

Stroke has been the second major cause of death in Brazil in the last decades. A better understanding on epidemiological statistics as well as on the diseases burden is crucial for enabling stakeholders to better tackle the disease.

Purpose

This project aims to continuously monitor and evaluate the data sources on heart disease and stroke in Brazil to provide the most up-to-date information on the epidemiology of these diseases to Brazilian society annually.

Methods

This initiative is based on the Heart Disease & Stroke Statistics Update methodology of the American Heart Association, with the support of the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, the Global Burden of Diseases Brazil network and an international committee. The project incorporates official statistics provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Health and other government agencies, as well as data generated by other sources and scientific studies on heart disease, stroke, and other CVD, including GBD/IHME data.

Results

The age-standardized prevalence rates per 100.000 for ischemic stroke in 1990 was 1327,6 (1151.2 to 1516) and 870.1 (761.1 to 992.8) in 2019 representing a percent change of −34.5 (−36.7 to −0.3). The age-standardized prevalence rates for intracerebral hemorrhage in 1990 was 507.5 (438.9 to584.1) and 315.9 (275 to 361.4) in 2019 representing a percent change of −37.7 (−40.5 to −0.3). The age-standardized incidence rates for stroke in 1990 was 224.6 (201.6 to 251.8) and 127 (113.8 to 142.1) in 2019 representing a percent change of −43.5 (−44.7 to −0.4). the age-standardized mortality rates for stroke in 1990 was 137.8 (127.8 to 144) and 58.1 (52.6 to 61.8) in 2019 representing a percent change of −57.8 (−60.4 to −0.6). The age-standardized DALY rates for stroke in 1990 was 2959 (2829.6 to 3063) and 1219.6 (1142 to 1285.5) in 2019 representing a percent change of −58.8 (−61 to −0.6).

Conclusion

This project represents a fundamental step on a better understanding on the stroke epidemiology in Brazil. While we observed a significant decrease in mortality rates from 1990 to 2019, we also raise a concern on a possible shift for a plateau curve or even increased rates in the next years.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Brazilian Society of Cardiology

P1947Trends in prevalence, mortality and morbidity associated with high systolic blood pressure in Brazil from 1990 to 2017: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background

Hypertension remains the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease worldwide. In Brazil, a third of adults have hypertension. The prevalence and impact of this risk factor on disease burden in Brazil and its federal units should be assessed in order to better address the issue.

Objective

To describe trends in prevalence and burden of diseases attributable to high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) among Brazilians ≥25 years old according to sex and federal units using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

Methods

We used the comparative risk assessment developed for the GBD study to estimate trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), by sex, and federal units for HSBP from 1990 to 2017. This study included 14 HSBP-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for evidence of causation. HSBP was defined as ≥140mmHg for prevalence estimates and, to evaluate the burden of HSBP, a theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) of 110–115 mmHg was considered. We estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to HSBP. We also explored the drivers of trends in attributable burden of HSBP, as well as the relation of HSBP burden and sociodemographic development.

Results

In Brazil, the prevalence of HSBP is 18.9 (95% uncertainty intervals [UI] 18.5 to 19.3%) and the age-standardized death rate attributable to HSBP decreased from 189.2 (95%UI 168.5 to 209.2) deaths to 104.8 (95%UI 94.9 to 114.4) deaths per 100,000 from 1990 to 2017. In spite of that, the total number of deaths attributable to HSBP increased 53.4% and HSBP raised from 3rd to 1st position, as the leading risk factor for deaths during the period. Regarding total DALYs, HSBP raised from 4th in 1990 to 2nd cause in 2017 - in the last, only behind smoking. The main driver in the change of HSBP burden in Brazil is population aging. Across federal units, the reduction in the age-standardized death rates attributable to HSBP are heterogeneous and the greater reduction correlated to higher sociodemographic development.

Conclusions

The age-standardized death and DALY rates attributable to HSBP are decreasing in Brazil, probably as results of successful public health policies for primary prevention and control of HSBP. However, the reduction was more significant in federal units with higher sociodemographic development, suggesting that the effect of health policies was heterogeneous. Moreover, HSBP has become the main risk factor for death in the country, mainly due to population aging. As such, the Brazilian health system should increase investments in policies to address the situation and prepare itself to cope with higher burden of HSBP in the near future.

Acknowledgement/Funding

The GBD 2017 Brazil study is primarily funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation