Epidemiological impact of a large number of false negative SARS-CoV-2 test results in South West England during September and October 2021

During September and October 2021, a substantial number of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests in England processed at a single laboratory were incorrectly reported as negative. We estimate the number of false negative test results issued and investigate the epidemiological impact of this incident. We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases that would have been reported had the sensitivity of the laboratory test procedure not dropped for the period 2 September to 12 October. In addition, by making comparisons between the most affected local areas and comparator populations, we estimate the number of additional infections, cases, hospitalisations and deaths that could have occurred as a result of increased transmission due to false negative test results.We estimate that around 39,000 tests may have been false negatives during this period and, as a direct result of this incident, the most affected areas in the South-West of England could have experienced between 6000 and 34,000 additional reportable cases, with a central estimate of around 24,000 additional reportable cases. Using modelled relationships between key variables, we estimate that this central estimate could have translated to approximately 55,000 additional infections.Each false negative likely led to around 1.5 additional infections. The incident is likely to have had a measurable impact on cases and infections in the affected areas in the South-West of England. IMPACT STATEMENT: These results indicate the significant negative impact of incorrect testing on COVID outcomes; and make a substantial contribution to understanding the impact of testing systems and the need to ensure high accuracy in testing and reporting of results.

Diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) in patients older than 65 years: analysis of 3 year Real World data of practice patterns and outcomes in England

BACKGROUND

We wished to examine treatment and outcome patterns in older diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients, with a focus on the effect of route-to-diagnosis to outcome.

METHODS

Data were extracted from Public Health England's National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service between 2013 and 2015 included route-to-diagnosis, disease characteristics and survival for 9186 patients ≥65 years. Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy data identified front-line regimens, cycles and doses.

RESULTS

Route-to-diagnosis were emergency (34%), NHS urgent cancer pathway (rapid haemato-oncologist review <2 weeks), (29%) and standard GP referral (25%). The most common regimen was R-CHOP (n = 4392). 313 patients received R-miniCHOP (7% of R-CHOP). For all patients, 3-year overall survival (OS) for 65-79 years was 57% and for ≥80 years was 32%. Three-year OS for R-CHOP-treated patients diagnosed via emergency presentation was 54% (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.63, p < 0.01) and 75% (adjusted HR 0.81, p < 0.01) on the NHS urgent cancer pathway (reference HR:1.00: GP referrals). 3-year OS was 54% for both R-miniCHOP and R-CHOP in ≥80 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our comprehensive population analysis is the first to show that the NHS urgent cancer pathway is associated with a superior survival after adjusting for multiple confounders. Equivalent survival for R-CHOP and R-mini-CHOP was demonstrated in those ≥80 years.

What Proportion of Cancers in the UK and Its Constituent Countries Could Be Prevented? An Updated Analysis

Background: Understanding population-level exposure to cancer risk factors is vital when devising risk-reduction policies. By reducing exposure to cancer risk factors, many cancers could be prevented. But what impact on cancer incidence do these risk factors have? And what proportion of cancers could be prevented if these risk factors are avoided? Aim: The aim of this analysis was to update the estimates of the number and proportion of theoretically preventable cancers in the UK to reflect the changing behavior as assessed in representative national surveys, and new epidemiologic evidence. Separate estimates were also calculated for England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland because prevalence of risk factor exposure varies between them. Methods: Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated for combinations of risk factor and cancer type with sufficient/convincing evidence of a causal association. Relative risks (RRs) were drawn from meta-analyses of cohort studies where possible. Prevalence of exposure to risk factors was obtained from nationally representative population surveys. Cancer incidence data for 2015 were sourced from national data releases and, where needed, personal communications. Results: Around four in ten (38%) cancer cases in 2015 in the UK were attributable to known risk factors. The proportion was around two percentage points higher in UK males (39%) than UK females (37%). Comparing UK countries, the attributable proportion for persons was highest in Scotland (41%) and lowest in England (37%). Tobacco smoking contributed by far the largest proportion of attributable cancer cases, followed by overweight and obesity, accounting for 15% and 6%, respectively, of all cases in the UK in 2015. Conclusion: Around four in ten (38%) cancer cases in the UK could be prevented. Tobacco and obesity remain the top contributors of attributable cancer cases. Tobacco smoking has the highest PAF because it greatly increases cancer risk and has a large number of cancer types associated with it. Obesity has the second-highest PAF because it affects a high proportion of the UK population and is also linked with many cancer types. Public health policy may seek to reduce the level of harm associated with exposure or reduce exposure levels - both approaches may be effective in preventing cancer. The variation in PAFs between UK countries is affected by sociodemographic differences which drive differences in exposure to theoretically avoidable 'lifestyle' factors. PAFs at UK country level have not been available previously and they should be used by policymakers in the devolved nations to develop more targeted public health measures. This analysis demonstrates the importance of nationally representative exposure prevalence data and cancer registration in informing evidence-based public health policy.

The impact of socio-economic deprivation on incidence, treatment and mortality from prostate cancer in England, 1990–2010

Objective:

To explore any association between socio-economic deprivation and prostate cancer diagnosis and/or treatment.

Patients and methods:

Data was extracted as follows: We gained the incident cases and staging from the National Cancer Data Repository, survival from the Cancer Information System, mortality from the Office for National Statistics, treatment data from Hospital Episode Statistics and National Clinical Analysis and Specialised Applications Team. Our analysis regarding socio-economic deprivation was controlled for age distribution.

Results:

We recorded 518,453 diagnoses of prostate cancer; 174,579 prostate cancer deaths; 33,889 prostatectomies and 21,351 radiotherapy treatments. Incidence is increasing in all groups, but the highest is amongst the least deprived. Mortality is decreasing, with survival consistently better in the least deprived. Prostatectomies are more frequent in the least deprived; however, this gap is narrowing.

Conclusions:

Prostate cancer incidence, survival and treatment are associated with socio-economic deprivation. Prostatectomy rates show a decrease in the gap of inequality. Multiple potential confounding factors, such as rates of prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing and access to health care are associated with socio-economic deprivation. The unifying influences of Improving Outcomes Guidance and the National Treatment Guidelines are intended to counteract the above inequalities. Particularly in prostate cancer, where long-term gain depends on multiple factors, individualised treatment decisions are paramount.