The evaluation of land consolidation policy in improving agricultural productivity in China

China is presently undergoing rapid economic development and unprecedented urbanization. Concerns over food security have prompted the Chinese government to implement large-scale land consolidation projects. However, no formal evaluation has been conducted on such projects. Thus, effectiveness of land consolidation policy remains uncertain. We obtained detailed geo-spatial information for 5328 land consolidation projects implemented between 2006 and 2010, and used time-series MODIS NDVI (2006-2016) data to assess effectiveness of China's land consolidation policy in improving agricultural productivity. Our results show that the overall effectiveness of land consolidation in improving agricultural productivity is low, which lies in contrast to optimistic estimates based on regional statistical analysis and theoretical approaches. For projects (n = 560) implemented in 2006, about 29.5% showed significant (p < 0.05) increasing trends of MODIS NDVI after implementation of land consolidation. For 2007-2010, lower percentages (e.g., 25.9% in 2007 and 13.5% in 2010) of projects showed significant increasing trends. Furthermore, we found effectiveness of land consolidation projects displayed clear regional differences and driving factors are inconsistent with policy design. We anticipate our research to be a starting point for a more comprehensive evaluation involving longer time-series and higher spatial resolution data.

Whitebark pine facilitation at treeline: potential interactions for disruption by an invasive pathogen

In stressful environments, facilitation often aids plant establishment, but invasive plant pathogens may potentially disrupt these interactions. In many treeline communities in the northern Rocky Mountains of the U.S. and Canada, Pinus albicaulis, a stress‐tolerant pine, initiates tree islands at higher frequencies than other conifers – that is, leads to leeward tree establishment more frequently. The facilitation provided by a solitary (isolated) P. albicaulis leading to tree island initiation may be important for different life‐history stages for leeward conifers, but it is not known which life‐history stages are influenced and protection provided. However, P. albicaulis mortality from the non‐native pathogen Cronartium ribicola potentially disrupts these facilitative interactions, reducing tree island initiation. In two Rocky Mountain eastern slope study areas, we experimentally examined fundamental plant–plant interactions which might facilitate tree island formation: the protection offered by P. albicaulis to leeward seed and seedling life‐history stages, and to leeward krummholz conifers. In the latter case, we simulated mortality from C. ribicola for windward P. albicaulis to determine whether loss of P. albicaulis from C. ribicola impacts leeward conifers. Relative to other common solitary conifers at treeline, solitary P. albicaulis had higher abundance. More seeds germinated in leeward rock microsites than in conifer or exposed microsites, but the odds of cotyledon seedling survival during the growing season were highest in P. albicaulis microsites. Planted seedling survival was low among all microsites examined. Simulating death of windward P. albicaulis by C. ribicola reduced shoot growth of leeward trees. Loss of P. albicaulis to exotic disease may limit facilitation interactions and conifer community development at treeline and potentially impede upward movement as climate warms.

Neighborhood functions alter unbalanced facilitation on a stress gradient

The stress-gradient hypothesis states that individual and species competitive and facilitative effects change in relative importance or intensity along environmental gradients of stress. The importance of the number of facilitators in the neighborhood of a potential beneficiary has not been explored. Evenly distributed and stress-correlated facilitation and the increase in the intensity of facilitation with neighbors as linear, logarithmic, and unimodal functions is simulated for two hypothetical species, both of which improve the local environment. The mutualism is unbalanced in that the establishment of one species is enhanced by neighbors more than the other. Compared to no facilitation or evenly distributed facilitation, the stress gradient produces more edges in the spatially advancing population, more overall intensity of facilitation, and more individuals further advanced into the area of higher stress; the more enhanced species has increased population relative to the other - to the point where they are equal. Among three neighborhood functions, little difference exists in outcomes between the linear and logarithmic functions, but the unimodal function, which shifts peak facilitation intensity to fewer neighbors, increases the above state variables more than the differences between the even and stress gradient facilitation scenarios; the population of the beneficiary species exceeds that of the other. Different neighborhood functions change the effects of spatial pattern on the biological outcome. The unbalanced mutualism may be important where additional species alter the basic interaction in the high stress area of the environmental gradient, such as ecotones where the spatial pattern becomes central to facilitation.

The potential for emergence of Chagas disease in the United States

To determine the risk for Chagas disease (American trypanosomiasis) in the United States, the characteristics that make the triatomine vector effective and the areas most at risk for transmission were delineated. In addition, the status of Chagas disease awareness among physicians in areas with a potential risk for the disease was determined. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to analyze three triatomine species within the United States known to harbor Trypanosoma cruzi and that exhibit qualities of domesticity. An analysis of the minimum temperature threshold for increased triatomine activity delineates the current population at increased risk, and by incorporating temperature predictions for 2030, the population at risk under a future climate scenario was also delineated. Considering both environmental and social factors, a vignette-based physician survey, based on the results of the GIS analysis, was used to gauge the level of awareness of Chagas disease within the delineated higher risk range. The current area at increased risk for Chagas disease includes much of the southern United States, and the higher risk range is expected to expand into the central United States based upon the 1 degrees C (1.8 degrees F) increase in temperature predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by the year 2030. Survey results indicate a limited consideration of Chagas disease during differential diagnosis, illustrating that the low number of Chagas disease cases discovered in the United States may be attributable to a lack of disease awareness as opposed to a lack of disease threat. This study combines GIS and survey analyses to evaluate the role that temperature variability and disease awareness among physicians play in the potential emergence of Chagas disease in the United States. This approach indicates that there is a potential for Chagas disease to emerge in the United States.