Immunological surrogate parameters in a prognostic model for multi-organ failure and death.
Eur J Med Res 2000;
5:283-94. [PMID:
10903188]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/17/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To assess the ability of clinical or biochemical parameters to predict outcome (survival or non-survival; severe or moderate/no complication) using multiple regression analyses.
DESIGN
Prospective, descriptive cohort study with no interventions
SETTING
12 surgical intensive care units of university hospitals and large community hospitals; four medical school research laboratories in eight European countries
PATIENTS
128 surgical patients with major intra-abdominal surgery admitted for at least two days to an intensive care unit
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES
Prediction of complications or survival based on analysis of clinical (Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score, Multi-Organ-Failure Score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores) and immunological (plasma levels of endotoxin, endotoxin neutralizing capacity, IL-6, IL-8, cell associated IL-8, Fc-receptor polymorphism, soluble CD-14) parameters, with comparison of predicted and actual outcomes.
RESULTS
APACHE II, MODS score, MOF score, platelets, IL-6, IL-8, ENC, cell ass. IL-8 were significantly different between survivors and non-survivors and patients with/without severe complications by univariate analysis. By multivariate analysis only MOF, MODS score, IL-6, platelets, comorbidity predicted complications with a sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 87%. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that only APACHE II score, plasma IL-8 and complications predicted death (sensitivity 84%; specificity 90%).
CONCLUSION
Immunological surrogate parameters may predict complications and death of surgical ICU patients. The use of several parameters may add to increase sensitivity and specificity in a prognostic model.
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