Serial tests of T-cell function predict long-term survival in an elderly cohort from a Scottish general practice

INTRODUCTION The care of the elderly presents serious challenges to general practice. In 1979, the first author took over the care of a general practice in Scotland where 21% of registered patients were elderly. This resulted in a high workload and prompted research into how this might be mitigated. AIM To measure serial tests of T-cell function in these individuals in order to identify those whose immune response was impaired and assess the effect of this in a long term follow up. METHODS This research comprised two phases. In the assessment phase (1979-82), patients were invited to have a 3-monthly visit from a research nurse where clinical measurements were made and blood taken for immunological tests of lymphocyte proliferation after culture with phytohaemagglutinin (PHA). For each patient, all records were surveyed and problems identified. In the follow-up phase (post 1982), all deaths were assessed with complete life-long follow up. RESULTS Of 405 people originally invited to participate in this research, 314 (78%) agreed and 246 (153 female, 93 male) entered the follow-up phase and were followed for 36.5 years. Factors significantly associated with lower survival were age, male sex, diastolic blood pressure, current smoking and poor immune function, as demonstrated by the percentage of negative responses in at least six PHA tests. Considered in four groups by percentage of failing tests, the lowest group had a life span 4 years shorter than the highest (P<0.01). The four groups did not differ significantly in general practitioner workload, diagnosed problems or causes of death. DISCUSSION Poor cellular immune function was associated with poor survival over lifetime follow up of >30 years. A sensitive, specific and longitudinally consistent measure of T-cell function is required to predict who may be at risk of poorer survival within our practices.

Substrate Supporting Disc Method for Confirmed Detection of Total Coliforms and E. coli in all Foods: Collaborative Study

The Coli Complete® substrate supporting disc (SSD) method for simultaneous confirmed total coliform count and Escherichia coli determination in all foods was compared with AOAC most probable number (MPN) methods, 966.23 and 966.24. Twenty-nine laboratories participated in this collaborative study in which 6 food types were analyzed. Four food types, raw ground beef, pork sausage, raw liquid milk, and nut meats, were naturally contaminated with coliform bacteria. Two foods, dry egg and fresh frozen vegetables, were seeded with coliforms. Three food types, ground beef, raw liquid milk, and pork sausage, were naturally contaminated with E. coli. Although pork sausage was naturally contaminated, the level was very low (&lt;10/50 g); therefore, additional E. coli were inoculated into 1 lot of this food type. Three food types, nut meats, dry egg, and fresh frozen vegetables, were inoculated with E. coli. For naturally contaminated samples, duplicate determinations were made on 3 separate lots for each food type. For inoculated samples, low, medium, and high contamination levels plus uninoculated control samples were examined in duplicate. Data were analyzed separately for total coliform bacteria and for E. coli. Mean log MPN counts were determined by the SSD method and the appropriate AOAC MPN method. Results were then analyzed for repeatability, reproducibility, and mean log MPN statistical equivalence. Results were statistically equivalent for all total coliform levels in all food types except frozen vegetable and raw nut meat uninoculated control samples and 1 lot of pork sausage where the SSD method produced statistically significant greater numbers. For the E. coli determinations, results were statistically equivalent across all samples and all levels for each food type. The SSD method has been adopted first action by AOAC International for confirmed detection of total coliforms and E. coli in all foods.

A New Predictive Model for Breast Cancer Survival in New Zealand: Development, Internal and External Validation, and Comparison With the Nottingham Prognostic Index

Background: Women diagnosed with breast cancer, their doctors, and their families, would find a valid estimate of her prognosis helpful in planning treatment and support. Assessing prognosis is complex as many factors influence it. Several predictive models have been produced, but none has been developed or tested on patients in New Zealand (NZ). Aim: We aimed to develop and validate a NZ predictive model (NZPM) for breast cancer, and compare its performance to a widely used UK-developed model, the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI). Methods: We developed a model to predict 10-year breast cancer-specific survival, using data collected prospectively in the largest population-based breast cancer registry in NZ (Auckland, 9182 patients), and assessed its performance in this data set (internal validation) and in an independent NZ population-based series of 2625 patients in Waikato (external validation). The data included all women with primary invasive breast cancer diagnosed from 1 June 2000 to 30 June 2014, with follow-up to death or to 31 December 2014. We used multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression to assess predictors and to estimate the probability of breast cancer mortality within 10 years, and therefore 10-year survival, for each patient. We assessed observed survival by the Kaplan-Meier method. We assessed discrimination by the C-statistic, and calibration by comparing predicted and observed survival rates for patients in 10 groups ordered by predicted 10-year survival. We compared this NZPM with the NPI in the validation data set. Results: The final NZPM used continuous variables of age, tumor size, and number of positive lymph nodes, and categorical variables of ethnicity, tumor stage, tumor grade, ER and PR receptors, HER2 status, and histologic type of tumor. Discrimination was good: C-statistics were 0.84 for internal validity and 0.83 for independent external validity. For calibration, for both internal and external validity, the predicted 10-year survival probabilities in 10 groups of patients, ordered by predicted survival, were all within the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the observed Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities. The NZPM showed good discrimination even within the prognostic groups defined by the NPI. Conclusion: These results for the NZPM show good internal and external validity, transportability, potential clinical value, and its clear superiority over the NPI. Further research will assess other potential predictors, other outcomes, performance in specific subgroups of patients, and compare the NZPM to other models, which have been developed in other countries and have not yet been tested in NZ.

EGFR Mutation Testing of Nonsquamous NSCLC in New Zealand: Trends, Selectivity and Effects on the Prevalence of EGFR Mutation

Background: Given the benefits in using epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI), clinical practice guidelines recommend EGFR mutation testing of nonsquamous non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, not all patients get tested, which may have an impact on the prevalence of EGFR mutation previously estimated. Aim: To determine the trends of EGFR mutation testing in patients with nonsquamous NSCLC in New Zealand, and to explore the possible associations between the proportions tested, selectivity and the prevalence of EGFR mutation. Methods: This population-based study involves all patients who were diagnosed with nonsquamous NSCLC in the four health regions of New Zealand between January 2010 and July 2016. We identified eligible patients from the New Zealand Cancer Registry and obtained information on EGFR testing from TestSafe, a clinical information sharing service. We then calculated the proportions of patients tested for EGFR mutation and computed selectivity indices for eleven periods. We used a log-linear model to assess the associations between the proportions tested, selectivity and the prevalence of EGFR mutation. Results: Of the 2986 patients involved in this analysis, 1280 (42.9%) were tested for EGFR mutation. The proportion tested increased from 3.7% in 2010 to 74.0% in 2016. Testing was more prevalent in younger age group, female, Asian and patients with adenocarcinoma, and when specimens for testing was available. Such selectivity, however, decreased from 2010 to 2016. The prevalence of EGFR mutation varied widely across the periods, ranging from 16.8% in January-June 2014 to 43.8% in 2010. It was negatively associated with the proportion tested ( P = 0.02), and positively associated with the selectivity of testing ( P = 0.03). The log linear models estimated that the prevalence of EGFR mutation would be at most 16.1% (95% CI: 9.5%–27.1%) if 100% of patients were tested. Conclusion: In New Zealand, the uptake of EGFR mutation testing has improved over time but there is still room for improvement. Incomplete and selective testing may result in an overestimation of the prevalence of EGFR mutation in patients with nonsquamous NSCLC.

Abstract P4-21-28: Trastuzumab improves outcomes of New Zealand women with HER2+ stage I-III breast cancer

Introduction

HER2 status has been routinely ascertained for stage I-III breast cancer since late 2005. Trastuzumab was first funded in New Zealand for use in HER2+ breast cancer in July 2007. This observational study aims to compare the difference in outcome between women with HER2+ stage I-III breast cancer who received trastuzumab as adjuvant therapy versus those who did not. Differences in presentation, treatment and outcomes between Māori and NZ European were studied.

Methods

The combined Waikato and Auckland Breast Cancer Registries have clinical details of 12377 women diagnosed with breast cancer between June 2000 and May 2013. 9506 women with breast cancer were tested for HER2 receptor status. Proportion of women with HER2+ (FISH amplified or IHC 3+), stage I-III breast cancer were examined by age, ethnicity and stage. Differences in use of trastuzumab for women with stage I-III breast cancer with a tumour size equal or larger than 1 cm and aged less than 75 years were assessed by ethnicity and year of diagnosis. Patients who had inflammatory breast cancer or developed metastatic disease or local recurrence within 3 months after diagnosis were excluded. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model were used to examine the breast cancer-specific survival between women treated with trastuzumab and chemotherapy and those treated with chemotherapy without trastuzumab.

Results

1454 patients with early invasive breast cancer were HER2+. The proportion of cases with HER2+, stage I-III breast cancer increased with stage (stage I-III: 11.5%-26.9%), but decreased with age (&lt;40 years to 80+ years: 28.8%-9.7%). Māori women were more likely to have HER2+ cancers than NZ European (17.8% versus 14.9%; p=0.02). Among the eligible patients, 605 women received trastuzumab and chemotherapy within 12 months for stage I-III breast cancer, and 275 had chemotherapy without trastuzumab. A small proportion (10.2%, 34/333) of women diagnosed in 2000-2005 received trastuzumab as part of a clinical trial. The proportion of women who received trastuzumab increased to 60.3% in 2006-2009 and to 87.1% in 2010-2013. 46.2% of Māori women were treated with trastuzumab compared to 55.9% of NZ European (p=0.040). The cancer-specific survival estimated with Kaplan-Meier method is shown in Table 1. Women treated with chemotherapy without trastuzumab were 2.7 times (95% CI: 1.9-3.9) more likely to die of breast cancer compared to those treated with trastuzumab and chemotherapy, after adjustment for stage, tumour size and hormone therapy.

Table 1. Breast cancer-specific survival between women with HER2+ stage I-III breast cancer who received trastuzumab as adjuvant therapy versus those who did notTreatmentNumber of patientsMedian follow-up time (months)5-year survival10-year survivalTrastuzumab+chemotherapy6055389.6%84.3%Chemotherapy without trastuzumab27510775.6%69.1%

Conclusions

Trastuzumab improved the breast cancer-specific survival of women with HER2+ stage I-III breast cancer. Māori women were more likely to have HER2+ cancer and less likely to be treated with trastuzumab. Rates of treatment with trastuzumab and the adjusted survival between Māori women and NZ European women were not significantly different.

Citation Format: Lawrenson R, Lao C, Harvey V, Campbell I, Brown C, Seneviratne S, Edwards M, Scott N, Elwood M, Sarfati D, Kuper-Hommel M. Trastuzumab improves outcomes of New Zealand women with HER2+ stage I-III breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2016 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2016 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-21-28.

Perceived impact on clinical practice and logistical issues in clinical management surveys of cancer: Australian experience

BACKGROUND

In September 2004, 28 published and 17 ongoing clinical management surveys (CMS) of cancer in Australia were identified, describing the clinical management of representative series of cancer patients. The present study assessed the perceived influence of these on clinical practice and the logistical issues involved in conducting a CMS.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Questionnaire sent to a key clinical investigator in each survey.

RESULTS

For the 28 published CMS, respondents (response rate 54%) reported that the CMS were influential in half or more of subsequent changes in the development or implementation of standard protocols, increasing specialist involvement in clinical trials, reducing variability in practice, and providing informed choice for patients. The surveys were regarded as influential in a third to half of noted changes in the use of evidence-based treatments, multidisciplinary care, and standardised collection of data. For CMS in progress, respondents (response rate 65%) reported on objectives and logistical issues, with the need for multiple ethical approvals emerging as a major issue.

CONCLUSION

CMS of cancer have played a modest but important role in stimulating and supporting improvements in clinical care in Australia. Many Australian surveys have been large and population-based and with high response rates. The recent introduction of a requirement for patient consent by some (but not all) ethical committees greatly increases the difficulties and costs of such surveys.

Validity of self-reported skin screening histories

Screening by whole-body clinical skin examination may improve early diagnosis of melanoma and reduce mortality, but objective scientific evidence of this is lacking. As part of a randomized controlled trial of population screening for melanoma in Queensland, Australia, the authors assessed the validity of self-reported history of whole-body skin examination and factors associated with accuracy of recall among 2,704 participants in 2001. Approximately half of the participants were known to have undergone whole-body skin examination within the past 3 years at skin screening clinics conducted as part of the randomized trial. All positive and negative self-reports were compared with screening clinic records. Where possible, reports of skin examinations conducted outside the clinics were compared with private medical records. The validity of self-reports of whole-body skin examination in the past 3 years was high: Concordance between self-reports and medical records was 93.7%, sensitivity was 92.0%, and specificity was 96.3%. Concordance was lower (74.3%) for self-reports of examinations conducted in the past 12 months, and there was evidence of "telescoping" in recall for this more recent time frame. In multivariate analysis, women and younger participants more accurately recalled their history of skin examinations. Participants with a history of melanoma did not differ from other participants in their accuracy of recall.

Once is enough--why some women do not continue to participate in a breast cancer screening programme

AIM

To assess the reasons why many women who have been screened once in a breast screening programme decline an invitation for further screening.

METHODS

Telephone interview survey of a sample of such women; for questions relating to their experience of previous mammography, comparison to data on a representative sample of first screen attendees. The subjects were women who had attended the first round of the Otago-Southland breast cancer screening programme in 1991-1994, who were eligible for re-screening but had been rescreened; age range 50-62.

RESULTS

From programme records, 86% of women who were eligible for a second screen accepted it. Of the women not recorded as having had a second screen, some had attended for a second screen; some had not been invited until they had become age ineligible and some had received no invitation for re-screening. Of women who had received and declined an invitation for re-screening (n = 81), the major reason (46%) was their previous mammogram being painful. Other factors contributing were illness in themselves or their spouse, practical difficulties arranging time and negative experiences with staff in the previous mammography, although these related to relatively few women. A few women thought mammography would be of no benefit, and a few thought re-screening was unnecessary because their first mammography had been normal, or because they practise self-examination.

CONCLUSIONS

Ensuring that all women eligible for further screening do get invited could substantially increase the re-screening rate. Even women who have declined previous invitations should be offered further invitations, as a substantial proportion with to be screened. Flexible and convenient appointment times are the main modifiable logistic issue. The major factor influencing non-participation with further screening is a painful experience of mammography. Innovative approaches, either to reduce the pain or to reduce the impact of the pain on the woman's attitude to re-screening, should be trialed.

The general practitioner's role in breast cancer screening: a survey in Otago-Southland

AIMS

To study the experience of general practitioners in Otago and Southland with the existing breast cancer screening programme and the reviews on future programmes.

METHODS

A questionnaire was sent to all 210 general practitioners in Otago and Southland in June 1996.

RESULTS

The response rate was 71%. All the 141 respondents except one encouraged eligible women to take part in the programme; this was done mainly during individual doctor-patient consultations, by pamphlets and posters, and in the work of the practice nurse. Ten percent of practitioners had a practice-based recall system for breast cancer screening. Seventy-five percent of general practitioners currently provide a list of eligible women to the programme, and of these, 52% check the list to exclude ineligible women. Only 24% of practitioners supplying a patient list to the programme reported that a patient had ever requested that their name be excluded from the list. Twenty-five percent of general practitioners providing lists had a notice in the waiting room stating that. Of those who did not provide lists, concerns about logistics, ethical issues and cost were raised, although 40% of these general practitioners intended to provide lists in the future. In a future programme, 57% of general practitioners felt they should be paid for supplying lists defined by age only and 82% felt they should be paid for supplying a list of women eligible by both age and medical history. Most general practitioners felt that general practitioner lists were the preferred source for invitations to the breast screening programme and that general practitioners had an important part in any future programme. Screening at the ages 50-64 (as currently proposed) is supported by 95% of general practitioners; in addition, 64% supported screening at ages 65-69. Only a minority of general practitioners supported screening at ages 40-49 or ages 70-74. Most general practitioners would offer screening to women under age 50 with either a strong or a weak family history, or even with a past history of a fibroadenoma.

CONCLUSIONS

These results show that almost all general practitioners support breast cancer screening programmes and feel that they have an important role in future programmes. The majority support extension of the programme to ages 65-69, but not to ages 40-49. The majority support screening women with individual risk factors at ages under 50, although their responses show that better information on the importance of different risk factors is required.

A community survey of sun exposure, sunburn and sun protection

AIM

To describe outdoor activities, sun protection behaviours and the experience of sunburn in a sample of New Zealanders during summer weekends of 1994.

METHODS

1243 respondents to a telephone survey provided information regarding their outdoor activities for the 5 hour period around midday of the previous Saturday and Sunday. The sample was drawn from those aged 15 to 65 years in the five centres of Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin. Respondents provided information on sun exposure, sunburn, sun protection and beliefs about tanning, as well as background demographic information, skin type and previous experience of sunburn.

RESULTS

12% of the sample (or 17% of all those outdoors) reported being sunburned on the preceding weekend, and those sunburned tended to be men, and to be under age 35 years. The face, neck and limbs were the areas most frequently reported as burned. Sporting activities and beach or water activities were associated with the highest number of episodes of burning. Overall 38% of those outside reported wearing a hat and 32% reported the use of a sunscreen. Positive attitudes to tanning were quite common and probably present the main target for change in the community.

CONCLUSION

On any sunny weekend in summer about three-quarters of adult New Zealanders will be out in the sun for relatively long periods of time, and many will get sunburned. The reduction of such harmful sun exposures remains an important public health goal.

Participation in breast cancer screening: randomised controlled trials of doctors' letters and of telephone reminders

The study used a randomised controlled trial to find out whether supporting letters from general practitioners accompanying the invitations from a screening centre affected participation in a population-based breast cancer screening program for women aged 50 to 64. A further randomised controlled trial compared the effect of postal reminders with telephone reminders for women who did not respond to an initial invitation to participate in the program. There were 482 women in the first trial and 641 in the second. Excluding women who were ineligible or could not be contacted, participation in screening was 71 per cent in the group which received letters from their general practitioners compared with 62 per cent in the group which did not receive letters (P = 0.059). In the group that received letters, 56 per cent were screened without a reminder compared with 43 per cent of the group that did not receive letters (P = 0.01). Fewer women who received letters from their general practitioners declined the invitation to be screened (P = 0.048). In the second trial, there was no difference in participation between the group receiving telephone reminders and the group receiving postal reminders. As in breast cancer screening programs in other countries, general practitioner endorsement of invitations increased participation in breast cancer screening. Postal reminders were as effective as telephone reminders in encouraging women who did not respond to an initial invitation to participate in screening.

The recognition and management of melanoma and other skin lesions by general practitioners in New Zealand

AIM

To assess current levels of knowledge and management practices with respect to melanoma and other skin cancers, in a representative sample of New Zealand general practitioners.

METHODS

A self-administered questionnaire was sent to a random sample of 900 general practitioners. The questionnaire included 12 cases with coloured photographs of skin lesions and a brief presenting history. Responders were asked to assess probable diagnosis, need for biopsy and management of the lesion. Other attitudinal and relevant background information was also gathered. The questionnaire was sent to a comparison sample of 35 dermatologists.

RESULTS

The overall response rate was 66% among the general practitioners and 68% among the dermatologists. The sample responding was representative of the larger population of doctors practising in New Zealand. Correct decisions whether or not to biopsy lesions (mean score of 10.1 out of 12) were significantly higher than the number of correct diagnoses (mean 8.4). Correct identification and recognition of the need to biopsy melanomas was high. Diagnostic skills and recognition of the need for biopsy were somewhat lower among general practitioners aged 50 years and over than among younger doctors. Doctors who had experience of a patient with melanoma had higher diagnostic skills and made more correct biopsy decisions. The general practitioners' scores for correct biopsy decisions were similar to those of the dermatologists sampled, although their diagnostic skills were somewhat lower, particularly with respect to nonmelanoma skin cancers.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicate a high level of expertise in terms of diagnosis of skin lesions and identification of need to biopsy suspicious lesions among general practitioners in this country.

Who comes to skin checks?

AIM

To examine the characteristics of persons attending skin checks carried out by the Cancer Society of New Zealand.

METHODS

Persons aged 20 years or over attending three skin checks open to the public in the Taranaki region in the summer of 1991-2 were surveyed regarding the presence of risk factors for melanoma and reasons for attending the skin check.

RESULTS

Overall, more women (n = 159) than men (n = 120) attended the clinics. Questionnaire results were available for 197 of those attending (110 women and 87 men). The average age of the sample was 49.4 years; 99% were from a European background. Forty percent of the sample had two or more of the following risk factors for melanoma: sun-sensitive skin, history of severe burning, red or fair hair, being treated for a skin cancer, and a family history of skin cancer. Fifty-one percent reported at least one change in a mole over the last 12 months, and 42% gave the presence of a worrying mark on their skin as a reason for coming.

CONCLUSION

Those who attended the skin checks were likely to be at increased risk of skin cancer compared to the general population, and more often came because of a specific skin lesion than for a general skin check.

Depression and the development of cancer: a meta-analysis

There is considerable support among members of the public and health professionals for the view that depression is an aetiological factor in the development of cancer. We review evidence for this hypothesis based upon prospective longitudinal studies measuring depression at time 1 and subsequent incidence of cancer over the intervening period to time 2. A meta-analysis of available studies indicates a small, but marginally statistically significant association between depression and the later development of cancer. However, the practical significance of this association for the prevention of cancer is negligible.

The difficulties and costs of ethical assessment of a national research project

In 1990 we applied to the 14 area health board ethical committees for approval of a national study of childhood cancer. All the committees approved the study, but the process was time consuming and costly. The times taken for the committees to grant approval, ranged from two to 36 weeks. The committees had differing requirements. We recommend that a single ethical committee should take responsibility for dealing with each multicentre study in New Zealand. This would ensure uniformity of approach, and minimise delays and costs.

Early detection of colorectal cancer: second feasibility study

The second study undertaken to test the feasibility of wide-scale controlled trial of Hemoccult® as a useful means of early detection of colorectal cancer is described. Of eight physicians recruited for this study, five completed it; 260 patients were enrolled, and randomized to obtain 152 in the study group and 108 in the control group. Of patients in the study group, 71% complied with the protocol. A third feasibility study will have to be mounted to reassess physician compliance and also to reassess the predicted rate of patient enrollment to the study.