Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer: Prospective External and Temporal Validation of the HAL and HOMER Models

BACKGROUND

Two models, the Help with the Assessment of Adenopathy in Lung cancer (HAL) and Help with Oncologic Mediastinal Evaluation for Radiation (HOMER), were recently developed to estimate the probability of nodal disease in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) as determined by endobronchial ultrasound-transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA). The objective of this study was to prospectively externally validate both models at multiple centers.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Are the HAL and HOMER models valid across multiple centers?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This multicenter prospective observational cohort study enrolled consecutive patients with PET-CT clinical-radiographic stages T1-3, N0-3, M0 NSCLC undergoing EBUS-TBNA staging. HOMER was used to predict the probability of N0 vs N1 vs N2 or N3 (N2|3) disease, and HAL was used to predict the probability of N2|3 (vs N0 or N1) disease. Model discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC), and calibration was assessed using the Brier score, calibration plots, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

Thirteen centers enrolled 1,799 patients. HAL and HOMER demonstrated good discrimination: HAL ROC-AUC = 0.873 (95%CI, 0.856-0.891) and HOMER ROC-AUC = 0.837 (95%CI, 0.814-0.859) for predicting N1 disease or higher (N1|2|3) and 0.876 (95%CI, 0.855-0.897) for predicting N2|3 disease. Brier scores were 0.117 and 0.349, respectively. Calibration plots demonstrated good calibration for both models. For HAL, the difference between forecast and observed probability of N2|3 disease was +0.012; for HOMER, the difference for N1|2|3 was -0.018 and for N2|3 was +0.002. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was significant for both models (P = .034 and .002), indicating a small but statistically significant calibration error.

INTERPRETATION

HAL and HOMER demonstrated good discrimination and calibration in multiple centers. Although calibration error was present, the magnitude of the error is small, such that the models are informative.

Screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography: a systematic review to update the US Preventive services task force recommendation

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States. Because early-stage lung cancer is associated with lower mortality than late-stage disease, early detection and treatment may be beneficial.

PURPOSE

To update the 2004 review of screening for lung cancer for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, focusing on screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT).

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE (2000 to 31 May 2013), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (through the fourth quarter of 2012), Scopus, and reference lists.

STUDY SELECTION

English-language randomized, controlled trials or cohort studies that evaluated LDCT screening for lung cancer.

DATA EXTRACTION

One reviewer extracted study data about participants, design, analysis, follow-up, and results, and a second reviewer checked extractions. Two reviewers rated study quality using established criteria.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Four trials reported results of LDCT screening among patients with smoking exposure. One large good-quality trial reported that screening was associated with significant reductions in lung cancer (20%) and all-cause (6.7%) mortality. Three small European trials showed no benefit of screening. Harms included radiation exposure, overdiagnosis, and a high rate of false-positive findings that typically were resolved with further imaging. Smoking cessation was not affected. Incidental findings were common.

LIMITATIONS

Three trials were underpowered and of insufficient duration to evaluate screening effectiveness. Overdiagnosis, an important harm of screening, is of uncertain magnitude. No studies reported results in women or minority populations.

CONCLUSION

Strong evidence shows that LDCT screening can reduce lung cancer and all-cause mortality. The harms associated with screening must be balanced with the benefits.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Improvement in mood, physical symptoms, and function with nortriptyline for depression in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Although recent epidemiologic studies have established that patients with chronic medical illness and depressed mood are more disabled than euthymic patients, detailed data on the benefits and risks of antidepressant treatment in medically high-risk patients have been slow to accumulate. The authors have examined multiple outcome indicators in patients with disabling chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and comorbid depression. Thirty patients completed a 12-week, randomized controlled trial of nortriptyline. Nortriptyline was clearly superior to placebo for treatment of depression. Nortriptyline treatment was accompanied by marked improvements in anxiety, certain respiratory symptoms, overall physical comfort, and day-to-day function; placebo effects were negligible. Physiological measures reflecting pulmonary insufficiency were generally unaffected by treatment. These data provide impetus for renewed efforts to improve recognition and treatment of mood disorders in even severely disabled medical patients.

Bronchial circulation in pulmonary artery occlusion and reperfusion

Obstruction of pulmonary arterial blood flow results in minimal biochemical and/or morphological changes in the involved lung. If the lung is reperfused, a syndrome of leukopenia and lung edema occurs. We used the radiolabeled microsphere technique to measure the response of the bronchial circulation in rabbits to acute pulmonary artery occlusion (PAO) and to pulmonary artery reperfusion. We found that the bronchial blood flow (Qbr) decreased from a base line of 0.37 +/- 0.10 to 0.09 +/- 0.04 (SE) ml.min-1.g dry lung-1 (P less than or equal to 0.05) after 4 h of PAO. In a separate group of animals, Qbr 24 h after PAO remained low (0.20 +/- 0.07 ml.min-1.g dry lung-1, P = 0.06). Qbr during PAO was inversely correlated with the wet-to-dry ratio after reperfusion (r = -0.68, P = 0.06). Qbr did not change during 4 h of reperfusion. We speculate that a critical level of Qbr may be necessary during PAO to prevent ischemia/reperfusion injury from occurring.