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Bergaoui K, Fraj MB, Fragaszy S, Ghanim A, Hamadin O, Al-Karablieh E, Al-Bakri J, Fakih M, Fayad A, Comair F, Yessef M, Mansour HB, Belgrissi H, Arsenault K, Peters-Lidard C, Kumar S, Hazra A, Nie W, Hayes M, Svoboda M, McDonnell R. Development of a composite drought indicator for operational drought monitoring in the MENA region. Sci Rep 2024; 14:5414. [PMID: 38443431 PMCID: PMC10914844 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-55626-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 03/07/2024] Open
Abstract
This paper presents the composite drought indicator (CDI) that Jordanian, Lebanese, Moroccan, and Tunisian government agencies now produce monthly to support operational drought management decision making, and it describes their iterative co-development processes. The CDI is primarily intended to monitor agricultural and ecological drought on a seasonal time scale. It uses remote sensing and modelled data inputs, and it reflects anomalies in precipitation, vegetation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Following quantitative and qualitative validation assessments, engagements with policymakers, and consideration of agencies' technical and institutional capabilities and constraints, we made changes to CDI input data, modelling procedures, and integration to tailor the system for each national context. We summarize validation results, drought modelling challenges and how we overcame them through CDI improvements, and we describe the monthly CDI production process and outputs. Finally, we synthesize procedural and technical aspects of CDI development and reflect on the constraints we faced as well as trade-offs made to optimize the CDI for operational monitoring to support policy decision-making-including aspects of salience, credibility, and legitimacy-within each national context.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karim Bergaoui
- International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Colombo, Sri Lanka.
- Dubai Technology Entrepreneur Campus, ACQUATEC Solutions, Dubai, UAE.
| | - Makram Belhaj Fraj
- International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Colombo, Sri Lanka
- Dubai Technology Entrepreneur Campus, ACQUATEC Solutions, Dubai, UAE
| | - Stephen Fragaszy
- International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Colombo, Sri Lanka.
| | - Ali Ghanim
- Drought Management Unit, Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Amman, Jordan
| | - Omar Hamadin
- Jordanian Meteorological Department, Ministry of Transportation, Amman, Jordan
| | - Emad Al-Karablieh
- Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
| | - Jawad Al-Bakri
- Department of Land, Water and Environment, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
| | - Mona Fakih
- Water Resources, General Directorate of Hydraulic and Electrical Resources, Ministry of Energy and Water, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Abbas Fayad
- Water Resources, General Directorate of Hydraulic and Electrical Resources, Ministry of Energy and Water, Beirut, Lebanon
- Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Canmore, Alberta, T1W 3G1, Canada
| | - Fadi Comair
- Water Resources, General Directorate of Hydraulic and Electrical Resources, Ministry of Energy and Water, Beirut, Lebanon
- Energy, Environment, and Water Research Centre in the Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Mohamed Yessef
- Institut Hassan II of Agronomy and Veterinary Medicine, Rabat, Morocco
| | | | | | - Kristi Arsenault
- Hydrological Science Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Maryland, USA
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Sujay Kumar
- Hydrological Science Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Abheera Hazra
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Maryland, USA
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Maryland, USA
| | - Wanshu Nie
- Hydrological Science Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Applications International Corporation, McLean, VA, USA
| | - Michael Hayes
- School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA
| | - Mark Svoboda
- National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA
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