An Immune-Related Gene Prognostic Prediction Risk Model for Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Rectal Cancer Using Artificial Intelligence.
Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys 2023;
117:e350. [PMID:
37785213 DOI:
10.1016/j.ijrobp.2023.06.2422]
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Abstract
PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)
To develop and validate an immune-related gene prognostic model (IRGPM) that can predict disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) who received neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and to clarify the immune characteristics of patients with different prognostic risks.
MATERIALS/METHODS
In this study, we obtained transcriptomic and clinical data from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database and rectal cancer database of West China Hospital. Genes in the RNA immune-oncology panel were extracted. Elastic net was used to identify the immune-related genes that significantly affected the DFS of patients. A prognostic risk model (IRGPM) for rectal cancer was constructed with the random forest method. The prognostic risk score was calculated by the model, and the patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups according to the median risk score. Immune characteristics were analyzed and compared between the high- and low-risk groups.
RESULTS
A total of 407 LARC samples were used in this study. A 20-gene signature was identified by elastic net and was found to be significantly correlated with DFS. The IRGPM was constructed on the basis of the 20 immune-related genes. Kaplan‒Meier survival analysis showed poorer 5-year DFS in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve suggested good model prediction (areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.87, 0.94, 0.95 at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively). The model was validated in the GSE190826 cohort (AUCs of 0.79, 0.64, and 0.63 at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively) and the cohort from our institution (AUCs of 0.64, 0.66, and 0. 64 at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively). The differentially expressed genes between the high- and low-risk groups were enriched in cytokine‒cytokine receptor interactions. The patients in the low-risk group had higher immune scores than the patients in the high-risk group. Subsequently, we found that activated B cells, activated CD8 T cells, central memory CD8 T cells, macrophages, T follicular helper cells and type 2 helper cells were more abundant in the low-risk group. Moreover, we compared the expression of immune checkpoints and found that the low-risk group had a higher PDCD1 expression level.
CONCLUSION
The IRGPM, which was constructed based on the random forest and elastic net methods, is a promising method to distinguish DFS in LARC patients treated with a standard strategy. The low-risk group identified by IRGPM was characterized by the activation of adaptive immunity in tumor microenvironment.
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