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Dhomse SS, Feng W, Montzka SA, Hossaini R, Keeble J, Pyle JA, Daniel JS, Chipperfield MP. Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions. Nat Commun 2019; 10:5781. [PMID: 31857594 PMCID: PMC6923372 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13717-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2019] [Accepted: 11/20/2019] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of ~ 13 Gg yr-1 may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr-1 would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade.
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Affiliation(s)
- S S Dhomse
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
- National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - W Feng
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - S A Montzka
- Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, USA
| | - R Hossaini
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - J Keeble
- Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1EW, UK
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1EW, UK
| | - J A Pyle
- Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1EW, UK
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1EW, UK
| | - J S Daniel
- Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, USA
| | - M P Chipperfield
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
- National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
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Hossaini R, Chipperfield MP, Saiz‐Lopez A, Harrison JJ, von Glasow R, Sommariva R, Atlas E, Navarro M, Montzka SA, Feng W, Dhomse S, Harth C, Mühle J, Lunder C, O'Doherty S, Young D, Reimann S, Vollmer MK, Krummel PB, Bernath PF. Growth in stratospheric chlorine from short-lived chemicals not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. Geophys Res Lett 2015; 42:4573-4580. [PMID: 27570318 PMCID: PMC4981078 DOI: 10.1002/2015gl063783] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2015] [Revised: 04/27/2015] [Accepted: 05/04/2015] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
We have developed a chemical mechanism describing the tropospheric degradation of chlorine containing very short-lived substances (VSLS). The scheme was included in a global atmospheric model and used to quantify the stratospheric injection of chlorine from anthropogenic VSLS ( ClyVSLS) between 2005 and 2013. By constraining the model with surface measurements of chloroform (CHCl3), dichloromethane (CH2Cl2), tetrachloroethene (C2Cl4), trichloroethene (C2HCl3), and 1,2-dichloroethane (CH2ClCH2Cl), we infer a 2013 ClyVSLS mixing ratio of 123 parts per trillion (ppt). Stratospheric injection of source gases dominates this supply, accounting for ∼83% of the total. The remainder comes from VSLS-derived organic products, phosgene (COCl2, 7%) and formyl chloride (CHClO, 2%), and also hydrogen chloride (HCl, 8%). Stratospheric ClyVSLS increased by ∼52% between 2005 and 2013, with a mean growth rate of 3.7 ppt Cl/yr. This increase is due to recent and ongoing growth in anthropogenic CH2Cl2-the most abundant chlorinated VSLS not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.
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Affiliation(s)
- R. Hossaini
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | | | - A. Saiz‐Lopez
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate GroupInstitute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSICMadridSpain
| | - J. J. Harrison
- National Centre for Earth Observation, Department of Physics and AstronomyUniversity of LeicesterLeicesterUK
| | - R. von Glasow
- Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of East AngliaNorwichUK
| | - R. Sommariva
- Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of East AngliaNorwichUK
- Now at Department of ChemistryUniversity of LeicesterLeicesterUK
| | - E. Atlas
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of MiamiMiamiFloridaUSA
| | - M. Navarro
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of MiamiMiamiFloridaUSA
| | - S. A. Montzka
- National Ocean and Atmospheric AdministrationBoulderColoradoUSA
| | - W. Feng
- National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - S. Dhomse
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - C. Harth
- Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of CaliforniaSan DiegoCaliforniaUSA
| | - J. Mühle
- Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of CaliforniaSan DiegoCaliforniaUSA
| | - C. Lunder
- Monitoring and Information Technology DepartmentNorwegian Institute for Air ResearchKjellerNorway
| | - S. O'Doherty
- Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group, School of ChemistryUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - D. Young
- Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group, School of ChemistryUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - S. Reimann
- Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and TechnologyDübendorfSwitzerland
| | - M. K. Vollmer
- Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and TechnologyDübendorfSwitzerland
| | - P. B. Krummel
- Oceans and Atmosphere FlagshipCSIRO AspendaleVictoriaAustralia
| | - P. F. Bernath
- Department of Chemistry and BiochemistryOld Dominion UniversityNorfolkVirginiaUSA
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Dhomse SS, Chipperfield MP, Feng W, Hossaini R, Mann GW, Santee ML. Revisiting the hemispheric asymmetry in midlatitude ozone changes following the Mount Pinatubo eruption: A 3-D model study. Geophys Res Lett 2015; 42:3038-3047. [PMID: 27867234 PMCID: PMC5102144 DOI: 10.1002/2015gl063052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2015] [Revised: 03/05/2015] [Accepted: 03/13/2015] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, satellite and in situ measurements showed a large enhancement in stratospheric aerosol in both hemispheres, but significant midlatitude column O3 depletion was observed only in the north. We use a three-dimensional chemical transport model to determine the mechanisms behind this hemispheric asymmetry. The model, forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalyses and updated aerosol surface area density, successfully simulates observed large column NO2 decreases and the different extents of ozone depletion in the two hemispheres. The chemical ozone loss is similar in the Northern (NH) and Southern Hemispheres (SH), but the contrasting role of dynamics increases the depletion in the NH and decreases it in the SH. The relevant SH dynamics are not captured as well by earlier ERA-40 reanalyses. Overall, the smaller SH column O3 depletion can be attributed to dynamical variability and smaller SH background lower stratosphere O3 concentrations.
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Affiliation(s)
- S. S. Dhomse
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
- National Centre for Earth ObservationUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - M. P. Chipperfield
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
- National Centre for Earth ObservationUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - W. Feng
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
- National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - R. Hossaini
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - G. W. Mann
- School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
- National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - M. L. Santee
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCaliforniaUSA
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Mahieu E, Chipperfield MP, Notholt J, Reddmann T, Anderson J, Bernath PF, Blumenstock T, Coffey MT, Dhomse SS, Feng W, Franco B, Froidevaux L, Griffith DWT, Hannigan JW, Hase F, Hossaini R, Jones NB, Morino I, Murata I, Nakajima H, Palm M, Paton-Walsh C, III JMR, Schneider M, Servais C, Smale D, Walker KA. Recent Northern Hemisphere stratospheric HCl increase due to atmospheric circulation changes. Nature 2014; 515:104-7. [DOI: 10.1038/nature13857] [Citation(s) in RCA: 88] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2014] [Accepted: 09/10/2014] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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