Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes.

METHODS

We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort).

FINDINGS

We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4.

INTERPRETATION

The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care.

FUNDING

European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Transforming growth factor beta at clinical onset of Type 1 diabetes mellitus. A pilot study

AIMS

The aims of the study were to determine whether transforming growth factor beta1 TGF-beta1 levels are raised at diagnosis of Type 1 diabetes mellitus and are related to blood glucose.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Fourteen patients (mean age 24.3 +/- 4.9 years) admitted to hospital for onset of Type 1 diabetes were studied. On the first day of hospitalization, before insulin therapy, and at 1, 4 and 16 weeks, fasting blood glucose, HbA(1c), lipid profile and TGF-beta1 levels and TGF-beta1 levels in 24-h urine were determined. The control group included 14 non-diabetic subjects with similar characteristics to those of the diabetic group.

RESULTS

Plasma and urinary TGF-beta1 levels were significantly lower in controls (4.7 (1.6-6.8) ng/ml P < 0.001; 5.7 (1.5-8.5) ng/mg urinary creatinine, P < 0.01) than in patients with Type 1 diabetes mellitus [10.5 (1.8-24.9) ng/ml; 10.1 (4.2-29.8) ng/mg urinary creatinine]. On study completion, HbA(1c) fell from 11.6 +/- 2.0 to 5.4 +/- 0.6% (P < 0.001). Improved metabolic control was not associated with changes in plasma (9.4 (2.6-19.5)/5.9 (1.6-21.5)/7.0 (2.3-30.2)/10.5 (1.8-24.9) ng/ml at baseline, 1, 4 and 16 weeks, respectively) or urinary (12.0 (4.7-29.5)/10.9 (1.5-20.5)/8.7 (4.3-16.9)/10.1 (4.2-29.8) ng/mg urinary creatinine) TGF-beta1 levels. A statistically significant correlation was observed between plasma TGF-beta1 and insulin dosage (U/kg/day) (r = 0.52, P = 0.037).

CONCLUSIONS

The increased TGF-beta1 production observed herein was not modulated by glycaemic reduction and could be a response to immuno-inflammatory activation present at the onset of Type 1 diabetes.

[Coronary risk assessment in subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus. General population-based scores or specific scores?]

Coronary risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus can be calculated using population-based scores or diabetes-specific scores. Our objective was to compare the results with both scores in a group of patients with type 2 diabetes and no history of cardiovascular disease. We analyzed the results for 101 patients aged 40 to 65 years with type 2 diabetes and no prior cardiovascular disease. Two scales were used, one based on the general population (Framingham function adapted from the REGICOR study), and the other based on the population with type 2 diabetes mellitus (UKPDS risk engine). The average 10-year likelihood of coronary events was 5.8 (2.5)% and 15.7 (8.4)% for the REGICOR risk score and the UKPDS risk score, respectively (P<.001), with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.525 (P<.01). Risk was higher in men (19.2 [8.7]% based on the UKPDS score, and 5.6 [2.8]% based on the REGICOR score, P<.001). The figures for women were 11.3 [5.9]% and 5.9 [2.1]% with the UKPDS and REGICOR scores, respectively (P<.001). Our results suggest that substantially different findings are obtained when general population-based scores or specific scores are used to assess cardiovascular risk in subjects with type 2 diabetes.

Consumo de ácido acetilsalicílico en pacientes con diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) has been recommended for primary (PP) and secondary prevention (SP) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in diabetic patients. The consumption of ASA among Catalan diabetic people is described here.

SUBJECTS AND METHOD

We analyzed 1,718 questionnaires administered to members of the Catalonia's Diabetic Association. ASA intake, history of CVD and medical advice about the use of ASA were evaluated.

RESULTS

ASA was taken by 21% subjects (as PP in 14% and as SP in 53%). Medical advice had been received in 23% (15% as PP and 56% as SP).

CONCLUSIONS

ASA intake among diabetic patients is low in both PP and SP. Physicians should recommend its use to improve this situation.