A comparison of two mathematical models of the impact of mass drug administration on the transmission and control of schistosomiasis

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This paper compares two mathematical models describing the transmission dynamics of schistosome infection and the impact of mass drug administration.

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The models differ structurally in a number of ways, including the dynamics of the intermediate snail host and the treatment of adult worms within the human host.

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The models are validated against data taken from a mass-drug administration trial in Mozambique.

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The differences between the model predictions and the data are discussed in the context of the structural differences between the models.

The predictions of two mathematical models describing the transmission dynamics of schistosome infection and the impact of mass drug administration are compared. The models differ in their description of the dynamics of the parasites within the host population and in their representation of the stages of the parasite lifecycle outside of the host. Key parameters are estimated from data collected in northern Mozambique from 2011 to 2015. This type of data set is valuable for model validation as treatment prior to the study was minimal. Predictions from both models are compared with each other and with epidemiological observations. Both models have difficulty matching both the intensity and prevalence of disease in the datasets and are only partially successful at predicting the impact of treatment. The models also differ from each other in their predictions, both quantitatively and qualitatively, of the long-term impact of 10 years’ school-based mass drug administration. We trace the dynamical differences back to basic assumptions about worm aggregation, force of infection and the dynamics of the parasite in the snail population in the two models and suggest data which could discriminate between them. We also discuss limitations with the datasets used and ways in which data collection could be improved.

Soil-Transmitted Helminths: Mathematical Models of Transmission, the Impact of Mass Drug Administration and Transmission Elimination Criteria

Infections caused by soil-transmitted helminthias (STHs) affect over a billion people worldwide, causing anaemia and having a large social and economic impact through poor educational outcomes. They are identified in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases as a target for renewed effort to ameliorate their global public health burden through mass drug administration (MDA) and water and hygiene improvement. In this chapter, we review the underlying biology and epidemiology of the three causative intestinal nematode species that are mostly considered under the STH umbrella term. We review efforts to model the transmission cycle of these helminths in populations and the effects of preventative chemotherapy on their control and elimination. Recent modelling shows that the different epidemiological characteristics of the parasitic nematode species that make up the STH group can lead to quite distinct responses to any given form of MDA. When connected with models of treatment cost-effectiveness, these models are potentially a powerful tool for informing public policy. A number of shortcomings are identified; lack of critical types of data and poor understanding of diagnostic sensitivities hamper efforts to test and hence improve models.

Studies of the Transmission Dynamics, Mathematical Model Development and the Control of Schistosome Parasites by Mass Drug Administration in Human Communities

Schistosomiasis is global in extent within developing countries, but more than 90% of the at-risk population lives in sub-Saharan Africa. In total, 261 million people are estimated to require preventive treatment. However, with increasing drug availability through donation, the World Health Organization has set a goal of increasing coverage to 75% of at-risk children in endemic countries and elimination in some regions. In this chapter, we discuss key biological and epidemiological processes involved in the schistosome transmission cycle and review the history of modelling schistosomiasis and the impact of mass drug administration, including both deterministic and stochastic approaches. In particular, we look at the potential impact of the WHO 2020 schistosomiasis treatment goals.

What is required in terms of mass drug administration to interrupt the transmission of schistosome parasites in regions of endemic infection?

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis is endemic in 54 countries, but has one of the lowest coverages by mass drug administration of all helminth diseases. However, with increasing drug availability through donation, the World Health Organisation has set a goal of increasing coverage to 75 % of at-risk children in endemic countries and elimination in some regions. In this paper, we assess the impact on schistosomiasis of the WHO goals in terms of control and elimination.

METHODS

We use an age-structured deterministic model of schistosome transmission in a human community and the effect of mass drug administration. The model is fitted to baseline data from a longitudinal re-infection study in Kenya and validated against the subsequent re-infection data. We examine the impact on host worm burden of the current treatment trend, extrapolated to meet the WHO goals, and its sensitivity to uncertainty in important parameters. We assess the feasibility of achieving elimination.

RESULTS

Model results show that the current treatment trend, extrapolated to the WHO goals, is able to greatly reduce host worm burdens. If coverage is continued at the same level beyond 2020, elimination is possible for low to moderate transmission settings, where transmission intensity is defined by the basic reproduction number, R0. Low levels of adult coverage have a significant impact on worm burden in all settings. Model validation against the re-infection survey demonstrates that the age-structured model is able to match post-treatment data well in terms of egg output, but that some details of re-infection among school children and young adults are not currently well represented.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work suggests that the current WHO treatment goals should be successful in bringing about a major reduction in schistosome infection in treated communities. If continued over a 15 year period, they are likely to result in elimination, at least in areas with lower transmission.