Beyond high-risk: analysis of the outcomes of extreme-risk patients in the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit

Patients who require emergency laparotomy are defined as high risk if their 30-day predicted risk of mortality is ≥ 5%. Despite a large difference in the characteristics of patients with a mortality risk score of between 5% and 50%, these outcomes are aggregated by the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA). Our aim was to describe the outcomes of the cohort of patients at extreme risk of death, which we defined as having a NELA-predicted 30-day mortality of ≥ 50%. All patients enrolled in the NELA database between December 2012 and 2020 were included. We compared patient characteristics; length of hospital stay; rates of unplanned return to the operating theatre; and 90-day survival in extreme-risk groups (predicted ≥ 50%) and high-risk patients (predicted 5-49%). Of 161,337 patients, 5193 (3.2%) had a predicted mortality of ≥ 50%. When patients were further subdivided, 2437 (47%) had predicted mortality of 50-59% (group 50-59); 1484 (29%) predicted mortality of 60-69% (group 60-69); 840 (16%) predicted mortality of 70-79% (group 70-79); and 423 (8%) predicted mortality of ≥ 80% (group 80+). Extreme-risk patients were significantly more likely to have been admitted electively than high-risk patients (p < 0.001). Length of stay increased from a median (IQR [range]) of 26 (16-43 [0-271]) days in group 50-59 to 35 (21-56 [0-368]) days in group 80+, compared with 17 (10-30 [0-1136]) days for high-risk patients. Rates of unplanned return to the operating theatre were higher in extreme-risk groups compared with high-risk patients (11% vs. 8%). The 90-day survival was 43% in group 50-59, 34% in group 60-69, 27% in group 70-79 and 17% in group 80+. These data underscore the need for a differentiated approach when discussing risk with patients at extreme risk of mortality following an emergency laparotomy. Clinicians should focus on patient priorities on quantity and quality of life during informed consent discussions before surgery. Future work should extend beyond the immediate postoperative period to encompass the longer-term outcomes (survival and function) of patients who have emergency laparotomies.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for death 30 days after adult emergency laparotomy

The probability of death after emergency laparotomy varies greatly between patients. Accurate pre-operative risk prediction is fundamental to planning care and improving outcomes. We aimed to develop a model limited to a few pre-operative factors that performed well irrespective of surgical indication: obstruction; sepsis; ischaemia; bleeding; and other. We derived a model with data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit for patients who had emergency laparotomy between December 2016 and November 2018. We tested the model on patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between December 2018 and November 2019. There were 4077/40,816 (10%) deaths 30 days after surgery in the derivation cohort. The final model had 13 pre-operative variables: surgical indication; age; blood pressure; heart rate; respiratory history; urgency; biochemical markers; anticipated malignancy; anticipated peritoneal soiling; and ASA physical status. The predicted mortality probability deciles ranged from 0.1% to 47%. There were 1888/11,187 deaths in the test cohort. The scaled Brier score, integrated calibration index and concordance for the model were 20%, 0.006 and 0.86, respectively. Model metrics were similar for the five surgical indications. In conclusion, we think that this prognostic model is suitable to support decision-making before emergency laparotomy as well as for risk adjustment for comparing organisations.

Quantitative futility in emergency laparotomy: an exploration of early-postoperative death in the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit

BACKGROUND

Quantitative futility is an appraisal of the risk of failure of a treatment. For those who do not survive, a laparotomy has provided negligible therapeutic benefit and may represent a missed opportunity for palliation. The aim of this study was to define a timeframe for quantitative futility in emergency laparotomy and investigate predictors of futility using the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) database.

METHODS

A two-stage methodology was used; stage one defined a timeframe for futility using an online survey and steering group discussion; stage two applied this definition to patients enrolled in NELA December 2013-December 2020 for analysis. Futility was defined as all-cause mortality within 3 days of emergency laparotomy. Baseline characteristics of this group were compared to all others. Multilevel logistic regression was carried out with potentially clinically important predictors defined a priori.

RESULTS

Quantitative futility occurred in 4% of patients (7442/180,987). Median age was 74 years (range 65-81 years). Median NELA risk score was 32.4% vs. 3.8% in the surviving cohort (p < 0.001). Early mortality patients more frequently presented with sepsis (p < 0.001). Significant predictors of futility included age, arterial lactate and cardiorespiratory co-morbidity. Frailty was associated with a 38% increased risk of early mortality (95% CI 1.22-1.55). Surgery for intestinal ischaemia was associated with a two times greater chance of futile surgery (OR 2.67; 95% CI 2.50-2.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Quantitative futility after emergency laparotomy is associated with quantifiable risk factors available to decision-makers preoperatively. These findings should be incorporated qualitatively by the multidisciplinary team into shared decision-making discussions with extremely high-risk patients.

Defining core patient descriptors for perforated peptic ulcer research: international Delphi

BACKGROUND

Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) remains a common condition globally with significant morbidity and mortality. Previous work has demonstrated variation in reporting of patient characteristics in PPU studies, making comparison of studies and outcomes difficult. The aim of this study was to standardize the reporting of patient characteristics, by creating a core descriptor set (CDS) of important descriptors that should be consistently reported in PPU research.

METHODS

Candidate descriptors were identified through systematic review and stakeholder proposals. An international Delphi exercise involving three survey rounds was undertaken to obtain consensus on key patient characteristics for future research. Participants rated items on a scale of 1-9 with respect to their importance. Items meeting a predetermined threshold (rated 7-9 by over 70 per cent of stakeholders) were included in the final set and ratified at a consensus meeting. Feedback was provided between rounds to allow refinement of ratings.

RESULTS

Some 116 clinicians were recruited from 29 countries. A total of 63 descriptors were longlisted from the literature, and 27 were proposed by stakeholders. After three survey rounds and a consensus meeting, 27 descriptors were included in the CDS. These covered demographic variables and co-morbidities, risk factors for PPU, presentation and pathway factors, need for organ support, biochemical parameters, prognostic tools, perforation details, and surgical history.

CONCLUSION

This study defines the core descriptive items for PPU research, which will allow more robust synthesis of studies.

Clinical risk prediction model for 30-day all-cause re-hospitalisation or mortality in patients hospitalised with heart failure

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model (AUS-HF model) for 30-day all-cause re-hospitalisation or death among patients admitted with acute heart failure (HF) to inform follow-up after hospitalisation. The model uses routinely collected measures at point of care.

METHODS

We analyzed pooled individual-level data from two cohort studies on acute HF patients followed for 30-days after discharge in 17 hospitals in Victoria, Australia (2014-2017). A set of 58 candidate predictors, commonly recorded in electronic medical records (EMR) including demographic, medical and social measures were considered. We used backward stepwise selection and LASSO for model development, bootstrap for internal validation, C-statistic for discrimination, and calibration slopes and plots for model calibration.

RESULTS

The analysis included 1380 patients, 42.1% female, median age 78.7 years (interquartile range = 16.2), 60.0% experienced previous hospitalisation for HF and 333 (24.1%) were re-hospitalised or died within 30 days post-discharge. The final risk model included 10 variables (admission: eGFR, and prescription of anticoagulants and thiazide diuretics; discharge: length of stay>3 days, systolic BP, heart rate, sodium level (<135 mmol/L), >10 prescribed medications, prescription of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers, and anticoagulants prescription. The discrimination of the model was moderate (C-statistic = 0.684, 95%CI 0.653, 0.716; optimism estimate = 0.062) with good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The AUS-HF model incorporating routinely collected point-of-care data from EMRs enables real-time risk estimation and can be easily implemented by clinicians. It can predict with moderate accuracy risk of 30-day hospitalisation or mortality and inform decisions around the intensity of follow-up after hospital discharge.

Failure to rescue patients after emergency laparotomy for large bowel perforation: analysis of the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA)

Background

Past studies have highlighted variation in in-hospital mortality rates among hospitals performing emergency laparotomy for large bowel perforation. The aim of this study was to investigate whether failure to rescue (FTR) contributes to this variability.

Methods

Patients aged 18 years or over requiring surgery for large bowel perforation between 2013 and 2016 were extracted from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) database. Information on complications were identified using linked Hospital Episode Statistics data and in-hospital deaths from the Office for National Statistics. The FTR rate was defined as the proportion of patients dying in hospital with a recorded complication, and was examined in hospitals grouped as having low, medium or high overall postoperative mortality.

Results

Overall, 6413 patients were included with 1029 (16.0 per cent) in-hospital deaths. Some 3533 patients (55.1 per cent) had at least one complication: 1023 surgical (16.0 per cent) and 3332 medical (52.0 per cent) complications. There were 22 in-hospital deaths following a surgical complication alone, 685 deaths following a medical complication alone, 150 deaths following both a surgical and medical complication, and 172 deaths with no recorded complication. The risk of in-hospital death was high among patients who suffered either type of complication (857 deaths in 3533 patients; FTR rate 24.3 per cent): 172 deaths followed a surgical complication (FTR-surgical rate 16.8 per cent) and 835 deaths followed a medical complication (FTR-medical rate of 25.1 per cent). After adjustment for patient characteristics and hospital factors, hospitals grouped as having low, medium or high overall postoperative mortality did not have different FTR rates (P = 0.770).

Conclusion

Among patients having emergency laparotomy for large bowel perforation, efforts to reduce the risk of in-hospital death should focus on reducing avoidable complications. There was no evidence of variation in FTR rates across National Health Service hospitals in England.

Delay in Source Control in Perforated Peptic Ulcer Leads to 6% Increased Risk of Death Per Hour: A Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Delay to theatre for patients with intra-abdominal sepsis is cited as a particular risk factor for death. Our aim was to evaluate the potential relationship between hourly delay from admission to surgery and post-operative mortality in patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU).

METHODS

All patients entered in the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit who had an emergency laparotomy for PPU within 24 h of admission from December 2013 to November 2017 were included. Time to theatre from admission was modelled as a continuous variable in hours. Outcome was 90-day mortality. Logistic regression adjusting for confounding factors was performed.

RESULTS

3809 patients were included, and 90-day mortality rate was 10.61%. Median time to theatre was 7.5 h (IQR 5-11.6 h). The odds of death increased with time to operation once adjustment for confounding variables was performed (per hour after admission adjusted OR 1.04 95% CI 1.02-1.07). In patients who were physiologically shocked (N = 334), there was an increase of 6% in risk-adjusted odds of mortality for every hour Em Lap was delayed after admission (OR 1.06 95% CI 1.01-1.11).

CONCLUSION

Hourly delay to theatre in patients with PPU is independently associated with risk of death by 90 days. Therefore, we suggest that surgical source control should occur as soon as possible after admission regardless of time of day.

Trainee-led emergency laparotomy operating

Background

To achieve completion of training in general surgery, trainees are required to demonstrate competency in common procedures performed at emergency laparotomy. The aim of this study was to describe the patterns of trainee-led emergency laparotomy operating and the association between postoperative outcomes.

Methods

Data on all patients who had an emergency laparotomy between December 2013 and November 2017 were extracted from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit database. Patients were grouped by grade of operating surgeon: trainee (specialty registrar) or consultant (including post-Certificate of Completion of Training fellows). Trends in trainee operating by deanery, hospital size and time of day of surgery were investigated. Univariable and adjusted regression analyses were performed for the outcomes 90-day mortality and return to theatre, with analysis of patients in operative subgroups segmental colectomy, Hartmann's procedure, adhesiolysis and repair of perforated peptic ulcer disease.

Results

The study cohort included 87 367 patients. The 90-day mortality rate was 15·1 per cent in the consultant group compared with 11·0 per cent in the trainee group. There were no increased odds of death by 90 days or of return to theatre across any of the operative groups when the operation was performed with a trainee listed as the most senior surgeon in theatre. Trainees were more likely to operate independently in high-volume centres (highest- versus lowest-volume centres: odds ratio (OR) 2·11, 95 per cent c.i. 1·91 to 2·33) and at night (00.00 to 07.59 versus 08.00 to 11.59 hours; OR 3·20, 2·95 to 3·48).

Conclusion

There is significant variation in trainee-led operating in emergency laparotomy by geographical area, hospital size and by time of day. However, this does not appear to influence mortality or return to theatre.

A review of surgical and peri-operative factors to consider in emergency laparotomy care

Patients undergoing emergency laparotomy are a heterogeneous group with regard to comorbidity, pre-operative physiological state and surgical pathology. There are many factors to consider in the peri-operative period for these patients. Surgical duration should be as short as possible for adequate completion of the procedure. This is of particular importance in the elderly and comorbid population. To date, there are limited data addressing the role of damage control surgery in emergency general surgery. Dual consultant-led care in all stages of emergency laparotomy care is increasing, with increased presence out of hours and also for high-risk patients. The role of the stoma care team should be actively encouraged in all patients who may require a stoma. Due to the emergent and unpredictable nature of surgical emergencies, healthcare teams may need to employ novel strategies to ensure early input from the stoma care team. It is important for all members of the medical teams to ensure that patients have given consent for both anaesthesia and surgery before emergency laparotomy. Small studies suggest that patients and their families are not aware of the high risk of morbidity and mortality following emergency laparotomy before operative intervention. Elderly patients should have early involvement from geriatric specialists and careful attention paid to assessment of frailty due to its association with mortality and morbidity. Additionally, the use of enhanced recovery programmes in emergency general surgery has been shown to have some impact in reducing length of stay in emergency surgical patients. However, the emergent nature of this surgery has been shown to be a detrimental factor in full implementation of enhanced recovery programmes. The use of a national database to collect data on patients undergoing emergency laparotomy and their processes of care has led to reduced mortality and length of stay in the UK. However, internationally, fewer data are available to draw conclusions.

Association between surgeon special interest and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background

Approximately 30 000 emergency laparotomies are performed each year in England and Wales. Patients with pathology of the gastrointestinal tract requiring emergency laparotomy are managed by general surgeons with an elective special interest focused on either the upper or lower gastrointestinal tract. This study investigated the impact of special interest on mortality after emergency laparotomy.

Methods

Adult patients having emergency laparotomy with either colorectal or gastroduodenal pathology were identified from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit database and grouped according to operative procedure. Outcomes included all-cause 30-day mortality, length of hospital stay and return to theatre. Logistic and Poisson regression were used to analyse the association between consultant special interest and the three outcomes.

Results

A total of 33 819 patients (28 546 colorectal, 5273 upper gastrointestinal (UGI)) were included. Patients who had colorectal procedures performed by a consultant without a special interest in colorectal surgery had an increased adjusted 30-day mortality risk (odds ratio (OR) 1·23, 95 per cent c.i. 1·13 to 1·33). Return to theatre also increased in this group (OR 1·13, 1·05 to 1·20). UGI procedures performed by non-UGI special interest surgeons carried an increased adjusted risk of 30-day mortality (OR 1·24, 1·02 to 1·53). The risk of return to theatre was not increased (OR 0·89, 0·70 to 1·12).

Conclusion

Emergency laparotomy performed by a surgeon whose special interest is not in the area of the pathology carries an increased risk of death at 30 days. This finding potentially has significant implications for emergency service configuration, training and workforce provision, and should stimulate discussion among all stakeholders.

An investigation into the inhibitory function of serotonin in diffuse noxious inhibitory controls in the neuropathic rat

BACKGROUND

Following neuropathy α2-adrenoceptor-mediated diffuse noxious inhibitory controls (DNIC), whereby a noxious conditioning stimulus inhibits the activity of spinal wide dynamic range (WDR) neurons, are abolished, and spinal 5-HT7 receptor densities are increased. Here, we manipulate spinal 5-HT content in spinal nerve ligated (SNL) animals and investigate which 5-HT receptor mediated actions predominate.

METHODS

Using in vivo electrophysiology we recorded WDR neuronal responses to von frey filaments applied to the hind paw before, and concurrent to, a noxious ear pinch (the conditioning stimulus) in isoflurane-anaesthetised rats. The expression of DNIC was quantified as a reduction in WDR neuronal firing in the presence of conditioning stimulus and was investigated in SNL rats following spinal application of (1) selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) citalopram or fluoxetine, or dual application of (2) SSRI plus 5-HT7 receptor antagonist SB269970, or (3) SSRI plus α2 adrenoceptor antagonist atipamezole.

RESULTS

DNIC were revealed in SNL animals following spinal application of SSRI, but this effect was abolished upon joint application of SSRI plus SB269970 or atipamezole.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose that in SNL animals the inhibitory actions (quantified as the presence of DNIC) of excess spinal 5-HT (presumed present following application of SSRI) were mediated via 5-HT7 receptors. The anti-nociception depends upon an underlying tonic noradrenergic inhibitory tone via the α2-adrenoceptor.

SIGNIFICANCE

Following neuropathy enhanced spinal serotonin availability switches the predominant spinal 5-HT receptor-mediated actions but also alters noradrenergic signalling. We highlight the therapeutic complexity of SSRIs and monoamine modulators for the treatment of neuropathic pain.

Topological features in cancer gene expression data

We present a new method for exploring cancer gene expression data based on tools from algebraic topology. Our method selects a small relevant subset from tens of thousands of genes while simultaneously identifying nontrivial higher order topological features, i.e., holes, in the data. We first circumvent the problem of high dimensionality by dualizing the data, i.e., by studying genes as points in the sample space. Then we select a small subset of the genes as landmarks to construct topological structures that capture persistent, i.e., topologically significant, features of the data set in its first homology group. Furthermore, we demonstrate that many members of these loops have been implicated for cancer biogenesis in scientific literature. We illustrate our method on five different data sets belonging to brain, breast, leukemia, and ovarian cancers.

The SADRA Lotus Valve System: a fully repositionable, retrievable prosthesis

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has become the preferred treatment option for patients with severe aortic stenosis at extreme surgical risk and an acceptable alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement in patients at high risk. Despite a growing amount of evidence in support of TAVI there remain important limitations and recognized complications. The SADRA Lotus Valve System is a novel TAVI device capable of allowing full repositionability and retrievability, which may address some of the first generation limitations.

Role for the left atrial appendage occlusion device in managing thromboembolic risk in atrial fibrillation

Only 50% of patients who would benefit from warfarin therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF) receive treatment because of clinical concerns regarding chronic anti-coagulation. Percutaneous strategies to treat AF, including pulmonary vein isolation with a curative intent or atrioventricular nodal ablation and implantation of a permanent pacemaker for palliative rate control, have not eliminated the need to manage thromboembolic risk. With the development of a percutaneous left atrial appendage (LAA) occlusion device (the WATCHMAN percutaneous left atrial appendage occluder - Atritech Inc., Plymouth, MN, USA) for thromboembolic protection in non-valvular AF a significant therapeutic option for select patients may be available. We present the first case performed in Australia (24 November 2009) and explore this new methodology.

An alternative approach to the management dilemma of the mildly dyskaryotic smear based on audit of outcome

We describe a study which takes an alternative approach to the management dilemma of the mildly dyskaryotic cervical smear. Two hundred and fifty women with a smear showing mild dyskaryosis were studied by auditing the clinical outcome as well as the cost. The cost of providing the colposcopy services during the index year was approximately pounds sterling 70000 for an average size district general Hospital. The proportion of women managed by the current guidelines and avoiding colposcopy after a first mildly dyskaryotic smear was only 30%. The majority of patients will eventually have colposcopy despite a policy of cytological surveillance. The alternative approach, to offer colposcopy immediately after the first mildly dyskaryotic smear, would result in a small increase in cost for our unit, equivalent to one extra colposcopy patient per week.

Review and Comparison of Wetland Impacts and Mitigation Requirements Between New Jersey, USA, Freshwater Wetlands Protection Act and Section 404 of the Clean Water Act

A review of wetland impacts authorized under the New Jersey Freshwater Wetlands Protection Act (FWPA) was conducted based on permitting data compiled for the period 1 July 1988 to 31 December 1993. Data regarding the acreage of wetlands impacted, location of impacts by drainage basin and watershed, and mitigation were analyzed. Wetland impacts authorized and mitigation under New Jersey's program were evaluated and compared with Section 404 information available for New Jersey and other regions of the United States.Under the FWPA, 3003 permits were issued authorizing impacts to 234.76 ha (602.27 acres) of wetlands and waters. Compensatory mitigation requirements for impacts associated with individual permits required the creation of 69.20 ha.(171.00 acres), and restoration of 16.49 ha (40.75 acres) of wetlands. Cumulative impacts by watershed were directly related to levels of development and population growth.The FWPA has resulted in an estimated 67% reduction [44.32 ha (109.47 acres) vs 136.26 ha (336.56 acres)] in annual wetland and water impacts when compared with Section 404 data for New Jersey. For mitigation, the slight increase in wetland acreage over acreage impacted is largely consistent with Section 404 data.Based on this evaluation, the FWPA has succeeded in reducing the level of wetland impacts in New Jersey. However, despite stringent regulation of activities in and around wetlands, New Jersey continues to experience approximately 32 ha (79 acres) of unmitigated wetland impacts annually. Our results suggest that additional efforts focusing on minimizing wetland impacts and increasing wetlands creation are needed to attain a goal of no net loss of freshwater wetlands.KEY WORDS: Wetlands; Clean Water Act; Freshwater Wetland Protection Act; Nationwide permits; Mitigation; New Jersey

Lack of evidence for patient-to-patient transmission of HIV in a dental practice

This report reviews data pertaining to the hypothesis that transmission of HIV to five patients of a Florida dentist with AIDS resulted from the patient-to-patient transfer of infectious materials through the reuse of contaminated instruments. Findings strongly suggest that patient-to-patient transmission of HIV through contaminated handpieces, prophylaxis angles or anesthetic needles or cartridges did not occur in this practice.