Designing a Bayesian adaptive clinical trial to evaluate novel mechanical ventilation strategies in acute respiratory failure using integrated nested Laplace approximations

BACKGROUND

Adaptive trials usually require simulations to determine values for design parameters, demonstrate error rates, and establish the sample size. We designed a Bayesian adaptive trial comparing ventilation strategies for patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure using simulations. The complexity of the analysis would usually require computationally expensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods but this barrier to simulation was overcome using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) algorithm to provide fast, approximate Bayesian inference.

METHODS

We simulated two-arm Bayesian adaptive trials with equal randomization that stratified participants into two disease severity states. The analysis used a proportional odds model, fit using INLA. Trials were stopped based on pre-specified posterior probability thresholds for superiority or futility, separately for each state. We calculated the type I error and power across 64 scenarios that varied the probability thresholds and the initial minimum sample size before commencing adaptive analyses. Two designs that maintained a type I error below 5%, a power above 80%, and a feasible mean sample size were evaluated further to determine the optimal design.

RESULTS

Power generally increased as the initial sample size and the futility threshold increased. The chosen design had an initial recruitment of 500 and a superiority threshold of 0.9925, and futility threshold of 0.95. It maintained high power and was likely to reach a conclusion before exceeding a feasible sample size.

CONCLUSIONS

We designed a Bayesian adaptive trial to evaluate novel strategies for ventilation using the INLA algorithm to efficiently evaluate a wide range of designs through simulation.

An Update on Management of Adult Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: An Official American Thoracic Society Clinical Practice Guideline

Background: This document updates previously published Clinical Practice Guidelines for the management of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), incorporating new evidence addressing the use of corticosteroids, venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, neuromuscular blocking agents, and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP). Methods: We summarized evidence addressing four "PICO questions" (patient, intervention, comparison, and outcome). A multidisciplinary panel with expertise in ARDS used the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation framework to develop clinical recommendations. Results: We suggest the use of: 1) corticosteroids for patients with ARDS (conditional recommendation, moderate certainty of evidence), 2) venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in selected patients with severe ARDS (conditional recommendation, low certainty of evidence), 3) neuromuscular blockers in patients with early severe ARDS (conditional recommendation, low certainty of evidence), and 4) higher PEEP without lung recruitment maneuvers as opposed to lower PEEP in patients with moderate to severe ARDS (conditional recommendation, low to moderate certainty), and 5) we recommend against using prolonged lung recruitment maneuvers in patients with moderate to severe ARDS (strong recommendation, moderate certainty). Conclusions: We provide updated evidence-based recommendations for the management of ARDS. Individual patient and illness characteristics should be factored into clinical decision making and implementation of these recommendations while additional evidence is generated from much-needed clinical trials.

Association of PEEP and Lung Recruitment Selection Strategies with Mortality in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

RATIONALE

The most beneficial positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) selection strategy in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is unknown and current practice is variable.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the relative effects of different PEEP selection strategies on mortality in adults with moderate to severe ARDS.

METHODS

We conducted a network meta-analysis using a Bayesian framework. Certainty of evidence was evaluated using GRADE methodology.

RESULTS

We included 18 randomized trials (4646 participants). In comparison to a lower PEEP strategy, the posterior probability of mortality benefit from a higher PEEP without lung recruitment maneuver (LRM) strategy was 99% (RR 0.77, 95% Crl 0.60-0.96, high certainty), the posterior probability of benefit of the Pes-guided strategy was 87% (RR 0.77, 95% CrI 0.48-1.22, moderate certainty), the posterior probability of benefit of a higher PEEP with brief LRM strategy was 96% (RR 0.83, 95% CrI 0.67-1.02, moderate certainty), and the posterior probability of increased mortality from a higher PEEP with prolonged LRM strategy was 77% (RR 1.06, 95% Crl 0.89-1.22, low certainty). In comparison to a higher PEEP without LRM strategy, the posterior probability of increased mortality from a higher PEEP with prolonged LRM strategy was 99% (RR 1.37, 95% CrI 1.04-1.81, moderate certainty).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In patients with moderate to severe ARDS, higher PEEP without LRM is associated with a lower risk of death as compared to lower PEEP. A higher PEEP with prolonged LRM strategy is associated with increased risk of death when compared to higher PEEP without LRM.

Quality of Heart Failure Care in the Intensive Care Unit

Patients with heart failure (HF) who are seen in an intensive care unit (ICU) manifest the highest-risk, most complex and most resource-intensive disease states. These patients account for a large relative proportion of days spent in an ICU. The paradigms by which critical care is provided to patients with HF are being reconsidered, including consideration of various multidisciplinary ICU staffing models and the development of acute-response teams. Traditional HF quality initiatives have centered on the peri- and postdischarge period in attempts to improve adherence to guideline-directed therapies and reduce readmissions. There is a compelling rationale for expanding high-quality efforts in treating patients with HF who are receiving critical care so we can improve outcomes, reduce preventable harm, improve teamwork and resource use, and achieve high health-system performance. Our goal is to answer the following question: For a patient with HF in the ICU, what is required for the provision of high-quality care? Herein, we first review the epidemiology of HF syndromes in the ICU and identify relevant critical care and quality stakeholders in HF. We next discuss the tenets of high-quality care for patients with HF in the ICU that will optimize critical care outcomes, such as ICU staffing models and evidence-based management of cardiac and noncardiac disease. We discuss strategies to mitigate preventable harm, improve ICU culture and conduct outcomes review, and we conclude with our summative vision of high-quality of ICU care for patients with HF; our vision includes clinical excellence, teamwork and ICU culture.

Risk factors for pleural effusion recurrence in patients with malignancy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The main purpose of treatment in patients with malignant pleural effusion (MPE) is symptom palliation. Currently, patients undergo repeat thoracenteses prior to receiving a definitive procedure as clinicians are not aware of the risk factors associated with fluid recurrence. The primary objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with recurrent symptomatic MPE.

METHODS

Retrospective multicentre cohort study of patients who underwent first thoracentesis was performed. The primary outcome was time to fluid recurrence requiring intervention in patients with evidence of metastatic disease. We used a cause-specific hazard model to identify risk factors associated with fluid recurrence. We also developed a predictive model, utilizing Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model, and externally validated the model.

RESULTS

A total of 988 patients with diagnosed metastatic disease were included. Cumulative incidence of recurrence was high with 30% of patients recurring by day 15. On multivariate analysis, size of the effusion on chest X-ray (up to the top of the cardiac silhouette (hazard ratio (HR): 1.84, 95% CI: 1.21-2.80, P = 0.004) and above the cardiac silhouette (HR: 2.22, 95% CI: 1.43-3.46, P = 0.0004)), larger amount of pleural fluid drained (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04-1.07, P < 0.0001) and higher pleural fluid LDH (HR: 1.008, 95% CI: 1.004-1.011, P < 0.0001) were associated with increased hazard of recurrence. Negative cytology (HR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.43-0.64, P < 0.0001) was associated with decreased hazard of recurrence. The model had low prediction accuracy.

CONCLUSION

Pleural effusion size, amount of pleural fluid drained, LDH and pleural fluid cytology were found to be risk factors for recurrence.

Comparison of Blood Viscoelasticity in Pediatric and Adult Cardiac Patients

Evidence is accumulating that blood flow patterns in the cardiovascular system and in cardiovascular devices do, in some instances, depend on blood viscoelasticity. Thus, to better understand the challenges to providing circulatory support and surgical therapies for pediatric and adult patients, viscous and elastic components of complex blood viscoelasticity of 31 pediatric patients were compared to those of 29 adult patients with a Vilastic-3 rheometer. A random effects model with categorical age covariates found statistically significant differences between pediatric and adult patients for log viscosity (p = 0.005). Log strain (p < 0.0001) and hematocrit (p < 0.0001) effects were also significant, as were the hematocrit-by-log-strain (p = 0.0006) and age-by-log strain (p = 0.001) interactions. The hematocrit-by-age interaction was not significant. For log elasticity, age differences were insignificant (p = 0.39). The model for log elasticity had significant log strain (p < 0.0001), log strain squared (p < 0.0001) and hematocrit (p < 0.0001) effects, as well as hematocrit-by-log-strain and hematocrit-by-log-strain-squared interactions (p = 0.014). A model for log viscosity with continuous age was also fit to the data, which can be used to refine cardiovascular device design and operation to the age of the patient. We conclude that there are distinct differences between pediatric and adult blood viscosity, as well as substantial variation within the pediatric population, that may impact the performance of devices and procedures.

Long-Term Mechanical Ventilation

Although precise numbers are difficult to obtain, the population of patients receiving long-term ventilation has increased over the last 20 years, and includes patients with chronic lung diseases, neuromuscular diseases, spinal cord injury, and children with complex disorders. This article reviews the equipment and logistics involved with ventilation outside of the hospital. Discussed are common locations for long-term ventilation, airway and secretion management, and many of the potential challenges faced by individuals on long-term ventilation.

In vitro characterization and performance testing of the ension pediatric cardiopulmonary assist system

In the last 40 years, mechanical circulatory support devices have become an effective option for the treatment of end-stage heart failure in adults. Few possibilities, however, are available for pediatric cardiopulmonary support. Ension Inc. (Pittsburgh, PA) is developing a pediatric cardiopulmonary assist system (pCAS) intended to address the limitations of existing devices used for this patient population. The pCAS device is an integrated unit containing an oxygenator and pump within a single casing, significantly reducing the size and blood-contacting surface area in comparison to current devices. Prototype pCAS devices produce appropriate flows and pressures while minimizing priming volume and preparation time. The pCAS was tested on a mock circulation designed to approximate the hemodynamic parameters of a small infant using a 10-Fr. extracorporeal membrane oxygenation inflow cannula and an 8-Fr. extracorporeal membrane oxygenation outflow cannula. Revision 4 of the device provided a flow rate of 0.42 L/min at 6,500 RPM. Revision 5, featuring improved impeller and diffuser designs, provided a flow rate of 0.57 L/min at 5,000 RPM. The performance tests indicate that for this cannulae combination, the pCAS pump is capable of delivering sufficient flows for patients <5 kg.