Assessing the susceptibility of schools to flood events in Iran

Catastrophic floods cause deaths, injuries, and property damages in communities around the world. The losses can be worse among those who are more vulnerable to exposure and this can be enhanced by communities’ vulnerabilities. People in undeveloped and developing countries, like Iran, are more vulnerable and may be more exposed to flood hazards. In this study we investigate the vulnerabilities of 1622 schools to flood hazard in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, Iran. We used four machine learning models to produce flood susceptibility maps. The analytic hierarchy process method was enhanced with distance from schools to create a school-focused flood-risk map. The results indicate that 492 rural schools and 147 urban schools are in very high-risk locations. Furthermore, 54% of rural students and 8% of urban students study schools in locations of very high flood risk. The situation should be examined very closely and mitigating actions are urgently needed.

Using machine learning algorithms to map the groundwater recharge potential zones

Groundwater recharge is indispensable for the sustainable management of freshwater resources, especially in the arid regions. Here we address some of the important aspects of groundwater recharge through machine learning algorithms (MLAs). Three MLAs including, SVM, MARS, and RF were validated for higher prediction accuracies in generating groundwater recharge potential maps (GRPMs). Accordingly, soil permeability samples were prepared and are arbitrarily grouped into training (70%) and validation (30%) samples. The GRPMs are generated using sixteen effective factors, such as elevation (denoted using a digital elevation model; DEM), aspect, slope angle, TWI (topographic wetness index), fault density, MRVBF (multiresolution index of valley bottom flatness), rainfall, lithology, land use, drainage density, distance from rivers, distance from faults, annual ETP (evapo-transpiration), minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and rainfall 24-hr. Subsequently, the VI (variables importance) is assessed based on the LASSO algorithm. The GRPMs of three MLAs were validated using the ROC-AUC (receiver operating characteristic-area under curve) and various techniques including true positive rate (TPR), false positive rate (FPR), F-measures, fallout, sensitivity, specificity, true skill statistics (TSS), and corrected classified instances (CCI). Based on the validation, the RF algorithm performed better (AUC = 0.987) than the SVM (AUC = 0.963) and the MARS algorithm (AUC = 0.962). Furthermore, the accuracy of these MLAs are included in excellent class, based on the ROC curve threshold. Our case study shows that the GRPMs are potential guidelines for decision-makers in drafting policies related to the sustainable management of the groundwater resources.