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Pepin KM, Spackman E, Brown JD, Pabilonia KL, Garber LP, Weaver JT, Kennedy DA, Patyk KA, Huyvaert KP, Miller RS, Franklin AB, Pedersen K, Bogich TL, Rohani P, Shriner SA, Webb CT, Riley S. Using quantitative disease dynamics as a tool for guiding response to avian influenza in poultry in the United States of America. Prev Vet Med 2013; 113:376-97. [PMID: 24462191 PMCID: PMC3945821 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.11.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2013] [Revised: 11/22/2013] [Accepted: 11/24/2013] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
Wild birds are the primary source of genetic diversity for influenza A viruses that eventually emerge in poultry and humans. Much progress has been made in the descriptive ecology of avian influenza viruses (AIVs), but contributions are less evident from quantitative studies (e.g., those including disease dynamic models). Transmission between host species, individuals and flocks has not been measured with sufficient accuracy to allow robust quantitative evaluation of alternate control protocols. We focused on the United States of America (USA) as a case study for determining the state of our quantitative knowledge of potential AIV emergence processes from wild hosts to poultry. We identified priorities for quantitative research that would build on existing tools for responding to AIV in poultry and concluded that the following knowledge gaps can be addressed with current empirical data: (1) quantification of the spatio-temporal relationships between AIV prevalence in wild hosts and poultry populations, (2) understanding how the structure of different poultry sectors impacts within-flock transmission, (3) determining mechanisms and rates of between-farm spread, and (4) validating current policy-decision tools with data. The modeling studies we recommend will improve our mechanistic understanding of potential AIV transmission patterns in USA poultry, leading to improved measures of accuracy and reduced uncertainty when evaluating alternative control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- K M Pepin
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
| | - E Spackman
- Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Athens, GA, USA.
| | - J D Brown
- Department of Population Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
| | - K L Pabilonia
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - L P Garber
- Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - J T Weaver
- Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - D A Kennedy
- Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA.
| | - K A Patyk
- Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - K P Huyvaert
- Warner College of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - R S Miller
- Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - A B Franklin
- National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - K Pedersen
- National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - T L Bogich
- Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
| | - P Rohani
- Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
| | - S A Shriner
- National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - C T Webb
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
| | - S Riley
- Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Disease Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, UK.
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