Models with higher effective dimensions tend to produce more uncertain estimates

Mathematical models are getting increasingly detailed to better predict phenomena or gain more accurate insights into the dynamics of a system of interest, even when there are no validation or training data available. Here, we show through ANOVA and statistical theory that this practice promotes fuzzier estimates because it generally increases the model's effective dimensions, i.e., the number of influential parameters and the weight of high-order interactions. By tracking the evolution of the effective dimensions and the output uncertainty at each model upgrade stage, modelers can better ponder whether the addition of detail truly matches the model's purpose and the quality of the data fed into it.

Models with higher effective dimensions tend to produce more uncertain estimates

Mathematical models are getting increasingly detailed to better predict phenomena or gain more accurate insights into the dynamics of a system of interest, even when there are no validation or training data available. Here, we show through ANOVA and statistical theory that this practice promotes fuzzier estimates because it generally increases the model's effective dimensions, i.e., the number of influential parameters and the weight of high-order interactions. By tracking the evolution of the effective dimensions and the output uncertainty at each model upgrade stage, modelers can better ponder whether the addition of detail truly matches the model's purpose and the quality of the data fed into it.

The Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic on Healthcare Provision in Italy to non-COVID Patients: a Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Italy has been one of the countries most affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and the regional healthcare system has had to quickly adapt its organization to meet the needs of infected patients. This has led to a drastic change in the routine management of non-communicable diseases with a potential long-term impact on patient health care. Therefore, we investigated the management of non-COVID-19 patients across all medical specialities in Italy.

METHODS

A PRISMA guideline-based systematic review of the literature was performed using PubMed, Embase, and Scopus, restricting the search to the main outbreak period in Italy (from February 20 to June 25 2020). We selected articles in English or Italian that detailed changes in the Italian hospital care for non-COVID-19 patients due to the pandemic. Our keywords included all medical specialities combined with our geographical focus (Italy) and COVID-19.

RESULTS

Of the 4643 potentially eligible studies identified by the search, 247 were included. A decrease in the management of emergencies in non-COVID patients was found together with an increase in mortality. Similarly, non-deferrable conditions met a tendency toward decreased diagnosis. All specialities have been affected by the re-organization of healthcare provision in the hub-and-spoke system and have benefited from telemedicine.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work highlights the changes in the Italian public healthcare system to tackle the developing health crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of our review may be useful to analyse future directions for the healthcare system in the case of new pandemic scenarios.

Southern Italy: How the Availability of Radiation Therapy, Patient Outcomes, and Risk to Health Care Providers Have Changed During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic

The first actions and provisions in a Southern Italy Department of Radiation Oncology are described at the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic.