The Pulmonary Metastasectomy in Colorectal Cancer (PulMiCC) burden of care study: Analysis of local treatments for lung metastases and systemic chemotherapy in 220 patients in the PulMiCC cohort

AIM

The aim of this work was to examine the burden of further treatments in patients with colorectal cancer following a decision about lung metastasectomy.

METHOD

Five teams participating in the Pulmonary Metastasectomy in Colorectal Cancer (PulMiCC) study provided details on subsequent local treatments for lung metastases, including the use of chemotherapy. For patients in three groups (no metastasectomy, one metastasectomy or multiple local interventions), baseline factors and selection criteria for additional treatments were examined.

RESULTS

The five teams recruited 220 patients between October 2010 and January 2017. No lung metastasectomy was performed in 51 patients, 114 patients had one metastasectomy and 55 patients had multiple local interventions. Selection for initial metastasectomy was associated with nonelevated carcinoembryonic antigen, fewer metastases and no prior liver metastasectomy. These patients also had better Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group scores and lung function at baseline. Four sites provided information on chemotherapy in 139 patients: 79 (57%) had one to five courses of chemotherapy, to a total of 179 courses. The patterns of survival after one or multiple metastasectomy interventions showed evidence of guarantee-time bias contributing to an impression of benefit over no metastasectomy. After repeated metastasectomy, a significantly higher risk of death was observed, with no apparent reduction in chemotherapy usage.

CONCLUSION

Repeated metastasectomy is associated with a higher risk of death without reducing the use of chemotherapy. Continued monitoring without surgery might reassure patients with indolent disease or allow response assessment during systemic treatment. Overall, the carefully collected information from the PulMICC study provides no indication of an important survival benefit from metastasectomy.

POS0106 BILAG-2004 LDA AND BST LDA ARE VALID TREAT TO TARGET IN SLE

Background:

Low disease activity state has been defined using SLEDAI and used as treatment target in SLE. However, there has not been any such definition using BILAG-2004 index (BILAG-2004).

Objectives:

This study was to determine if low disease activity state according to BILAG-2004 is valid for use as treatment target in SLE. We also assessed disease activity longitudinally using BILAG-2004 systems tally (BST). BST is an alternative way of representing BILAG-2004 scores that combines the flexibility and simplification of numerical scoring of BILAG-2004 with the clinical intuitiveness of BILAG-2004 structure.

Methods:

This was a prospective multi-centre longitudinal study in the UK of an inception cohort of SLE patients (recruited within 12 months of achieving 1997 ACR revised criteria for SLE). Data were collected on disease activity (BILAG-2004 and BILAG2004-Pregnancy Index during pregnancy), SLICC/ACR DI (SDI), cumulative drug exposure and death at every visit. This study ran from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2017. Four low disease activity states (LDA) were defined using BILAG-2004: 1) BILAG-2004 LDA when all 9 systems had scores of C, D or E on assessment (no Grade A or B), 2) BST LDA when there was persistent score of C, D or E in all 9 systems between 2 consecutive visits (equivalent to 2 consecutive visits with BILAG-2004 LDA), 3) BILAG-2004 Remission when all 9 systems had scores of D or E on assessment and 4) Persistent Remission when there was persistent score of D or E in all 9 systems between 2 consecutive visits. Longitudinal analysis using Poisson regression with random effects model was used with development of new damage as the outcome of interest. Gender, cardiovascular risk factors, antiphospholipid syndrome status and most drugs (except hydroxychloroquine, glucocorticoids, mycophenolate and cyclophosphamide) were excluded from the model as they were not associated with development of damage in univariate analysis.

Results:

273 patients were recruited (91.2% female, 59.3% Caucasian, 17.2% African/Caribbean, 17.2% South Asian) with mean age at recruitment of 38.5 years (SD 14.8). 97.8% had no damage at recruitment (2.2% had SDI score of 1). Median follow-up was 73.4 months (range: 1.8, 153.8) with total follow-up of 1767 patient-years. There were 13 deaths and 114 new damage items occurred during follow-up. There were 6674 assessments with disease activity score: 319 assessments with Grade A activity in 95 patients (84.6% had only 1 system with grade A, range: 1 - 4) and 1704 assessments with Grade A or B activity in 239 patients (78.7% had only 1 system with Grade A or B, range: 1 - 5).

BILAG-2004 LDA was achieved in 74.5% of assessments (from 271 patients). BILAG-2004 Remission occurred in 28.2% of assessments (from 234 patients).

6401 observations with BST were available (1 observation derived from change in activity between 2 consecutive assessments) and 63.7% were in BST LDA. There was no observation with Persistent Remission between consecutive visits.

Table 1 summarises multivariate analysis which showed BILAG-2004 LDA to be inversely associated with damage. Similar results were obtained with BILAG-2004 Remission (RR 0.60 with 95% CI 0.38, 0.96) and BST LDA (RR 0.65 with 95% CI 0.43, 0.99). Cumulative drug exposure since recruitment for mycophenolate was protective against new damage (RR 0.99 with 95% CI 0.99, 0.99).

Table 1.VariableRelative Risk (95% CI) for New DamageEthnicityAfro-Caribbean1.22 (0.68, 2.18)South Asian1.81 (0.97, 3.38)Others2.22 (0.63, 7.85)Age at diagnosis1.06 (1.04, 1.08)Prior SDI score0.68 (0.43, 1.06)BILAG-2004 LDA0.60 (0.39, 0.94)Hydroxychloroquine since last visit (per g)0.99 (0.98, 0.99)Steroids since last visit (per 100mg)1.02 (1.01, 1.03)Cyclophosphamide since last visit (per g)1.67 (1.15, 2.41)

Conclusion:

BILAG-2004 LDA and BST LDA are valid treatment targets in SLE. BILAG-2004 Remission and Persistent Remission are uncommon, which make them unrealistic as a treatment target.

References:

[1]Yee C. S., et al. The BILAG-2004 systems tally – a novel way of representing the BILAG-2004 index scores longitudinally. Rheumatology (Oxford) 2012; 51[11]: 2099-2105.

Acknowledgements :

Versus Arthritis, Vifor Pharma

Disclosure of Interests:

Chee-Seng Yee Consultant of: Bristol Myers Squibb, ImmuPharma, Grant/research support from: Vifor Pharma, Caroline Gordon Speakers bureau: UCB, Consultant of: Center for Disease Control, Astra-Zeneca, MGP, Sanofi and UCB, Mohammed Akil: None declared, Peter Lanyon: None declared, Christopher John Edwards Consultant of: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, Grant/research support from: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, David Isenberg: None declared, Anisur Rahman: None declared, Lee-Suan Teh: None declared, Sofia Tosounidou: None declared, Robert Stevens: None declared, Ahtiveer Prabu: None declared, Bridget Griffiths: None declared, Neil McHugh: None declared, Ian N. Bruce: None declared, Yasmeen Ahmad: None declared, Munther Khamashta: None declared, Vernon Farewell: None declared

POS0111 DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGE AND MORTALITY IN AN INCEPTION COHORT OF SLE PATIENTS

Background:

There had been very limited data on the development of damage and mortality in an inception cohort of SLE patients who were recruited very soon after diagnosis.

Objectives:

This study aimed to analyse the development of damage and death in an inception cohort of SLE patients recruited within 1 year of diagnosis with up to 13 years of follow-up.

Methods:

This was a prospective multi-centre longitudinal study in the UK of SLE patients recruited within 12 months of achieving 1997 ACR revised criteria for SLE. Data were collected on BILAG-2004, BILAG2004-Pregnancy Index (during pregnancy), SLICC/ACR DI (SDI), cumulative drug exposure and death at every visit. Information on cardiovascular risk factors and antiphospholipid syndrome status were also collected. This study ran from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2017. Mortality and development of damage were analysed.

Results:

There were 273 patients recruited (91.2% female, 59.3% Caucasian, 17.2% African/Caribbean, 17.2% South Asian) with mean age at recruitment of 38.5 years (SD 14.8). 97.8% had no damage at recruitment (2.2% had SDI score of 1). Median follow-up was 73.4 months (range: 1.8, 153.8) with total follow-up of 1767 patient-years.

There were 13 deaths (4.8%): 76.9% female, 84.6% Caucasian, 15.4% South Asian, mean age 62.6 years (± SD 15.8) and mean disease duration 3 years (± SD 1.8). Causes of death were cancer in 5 (38.5%), infection in 3 (23.1%), ischaemic heart disease in 1 (7.7%) and unknown in 4 (30.8%).

114 new damage items in 83 patients occurred during follow-up. The distribution of damage was musculoskeletal (21, 18.4%), ophthalmic (18, 15.8%), neuropsychiatric (18, 15.8%), renal (14, 12.3%), malignancy (12, 10.5%), cutaneous (7, 6.1%), GIT (7, 6.1%), cardiac (6, 5.3%), pulmonary (4, 3.5%), diabetes mellitus (4, 3.5%) and vascular (3, 2.6%). The rate of development of damage appears to be higher in the first 3 years which subsequently stabilised (Table 1).

Table 1.

Incidence rate of development of damage over period of follow-up at 3 yearly intervals

Period of follow-up (year)Person-years at riskNumber of new items of damageIncidence rate, per 1000 person-years (95% CI)0 – 3753.46079.6 (61.8, 102.6)3 – 6534.03158.1 (40.8, 82.6)6 – 9321.21237.4 (21.2, 35.8)9 – 12152.5532.8 (13.6, 78.7)> 125.90-

Conclusion:

Mortality is uncommon during the first 12 years of follow-up for newly diagnosed SLE patients. However, development of damage appears to be higher in the first 3 years before stabilizing to a lower rate subsequently.

Acknowledgements:

Versus Arthritis, VIfor Pharma

Disclosure of Interests:

Chee-Seng Yee Consultant of: Bristol Myer Squibb, ImmuPharma, Grant/research support from: Vifor Pharma, Vernon Farewell: None declared, Mohammed Akil: None declared, Peter Lanyon: None declared, Christopher John Edwards Consultant of: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, Grant/research support from: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, David Isenberg: None declared, Anisur Rahman: None declared, Lee-Suan Teh: None declared, Sofia Tosounidou: None declared, Robert Stevens: None declared, Ahtiveer Prabu: None declared, Bridget Griffiths: None declared, Neil McHugh: None declared, Ian N. Bruce: None declared, Yasmeen Ahmad: None declared, Munther Khamashta: None declared, Caroline Gordon Speakers bureau: UCB, Consultant of: Center for Disease Control, Astra-Zeneca, MGP, Sanofi and UCB

POS0705 BILAG-2004 INDEX ACTIVE DISEASE PREDICTS DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGE

Background:

BILAG-2004 Index (BILAG-2004) has undergone construct and criterion validity and is used to assess disease activity in SLE. However, its predictive validity has yet to be established.

Objectives:

This study was to determine if disease activity according to BILAG-2004 was predictive of development of damage in an inception cohort.

Methods:

This was a prospective multi-centre longitudinal study in the UK of an inception cohort of SLE patients (recruited within 12 months of achieving 1997 ACR revised criteria for SLE). Data were collected on disease activity (BILAG-2004 and BILAG2004-Pregnancy Index during pregnancy), SLICC/ACR DI (SDI), cumulative drug exposure and death at every visit. Information on cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolaemia and smoking status) and antiphospholipid syndrome status were also collected. This study ran from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2017. Longitudinal analysis using Poisson regression with random effects model was used to determine predictors of development of new damage. Death was not included in the analysis due to small numbers.

Results:

273 patients were recruited (91.2% female, 59.3% Caucasian, 17.2% African/Caribbean, 17.2% South Asian) with mean age at recruitment of 38.5 years (SD 14.8). 97.8% had no damage at recruitment (2.2% had SDI score of 1). Median follow-up was 73.4 months (range: 1.8, 153.8) with total follow-up of 1767 patient-years. Prevalence of risk factors during follow-up were: hypertension 23.1%, hypercholesterolaemia 35.5%, diabetes mellitus 5.5%, smoker or ex-smoker 44% and antiphospholipid syndrome 7%. There were 13 deaths and 114 new damage items occurred during follow-up.

There were 6674 assessments with disease activity score: 293 assessments with Grade A activity in 95 patients (92.4% had only 1 system with grade A, range: 1 - 4) and 1704 assessments with Grade A or B activity in 239 patients (78.7% had only 1 system with Grade A or B, range: 1 - 5).

Univariate analysis showed that gender, cardiovascular risk factors, antiphospholipid syndrome and most drug exposure (except hydroxychloroquine, glucocorticoids, mycophenolate and cyclophosphamide) were not associated with new damage (they were not included in the multivariate analysis).

Table 1 summarises multivariate analysis. Similar results were obtained when the disease activity variable was changed to Number of Systems with Grade A per assessment (RR 2.04 with 95% CI: 1.05, 3.94). Analysis using BILAG-2004 systems tally showed that persistent minimal disease was protective of development of damage (RR 0.74 with 95% CI: 0.57, 0.95). Cumulative drug exposure since recruitment for mycophenolate was protective against new damage (RR 0.99 with 95% CI 0.99, 0.99) but not cumulative drug exposure since last visit.

VariableRisk Ratio (95% CI) for New DamageEthnicity Afro-Caribbean1.21 (0.68, 2.17) South Asian1.81 (0.97, 3.36) Others2.37 (0.68, 8.20)Age at diagnosis1.06 (1.04, 1.08)Prior SDI score0.69 (0.44, 1.08)Constitutional A or Bunreliable estimate due to low numbersMucocutaneous A or B1.80 (1.04, 3.14)Neuropsychiatric A or B4.68 (1.68, 13.05)Musculoskeletal A or B0.76 (0.33, 1.73)Cardiorespiratory A or B0.35 (0.05, 2.59)GIT A or Bunreliable estimate due to low numbersOphthalmic A or Bunreliable estimate due to low numbersRenal A or B2.08 (0.99, 4.40)Haematological A or B4.37 (1.15, 16.65)Hydroxychloroquine since last visit (per g)0.99 (0.98, 0.99)Prednisolone since last visit (per 100mg)1.01 (1.00, 1.02)Cyclophosphamide since last visit (per g)1.42 (0.94, 2.14)

Conclusion:

Active disease (Grade A or B) according to BILAG-2004 index is predictive of development of new damage in SLE patients.

References:

[1]Yee C. S., et al. The BILAG-2004 systems tally – a novel way of representing the BILAG-2004 index scores longitudinally. Rheumatology (Oxford) 2012; 51[11]: 2099-2105.

Acknowledgements:

Versus Arthritis and Vifor Pharma

Disclosure of Interests:

Chee-Seng Yee Consultant of: Bristol Myers Squibb, ImmuPharma, Grant/research support from: Vifor Pharma, Vernon Farewell: None declared, Mohammed Akil: None declared, Peter Lanyon: None declared, Christopher John Edwards Consultant of: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, Grant/research support from: Glaxo Smith Kline, Roche, David Isenberg: None declared, Anisur Rahman: None declared, Lee-Suan Teh: None declared, Sofia Tosounidou: None declared, Robert Stevens: None declared, Ahtiveer Prabu: None declared, Bridget Griffiths: None declared, Neil McHugh: None declared, Ian N. Bruce: None declared, Yasmeen Ahmad: None declared, Munther Khamashta: None declared, Caroline Gordon Speakers bureau: UCB, Consultant of: Center for Disease Control, Astra-Zeneca, MGP, Sanofi and UCB

Pulmonary Metastasectomy in Colorectal Cancer: updated analysis of 93 randomized patients - control survival is much better than previously assumed

AIM

Lung metastases from colorectal cancer are resected in selected patients in the belief that this confers a significant survival advantage. It is generally assumed that the 5-year survival of these patients would be near zero without metastasectomy. We tested the clinical effectiveness of this practice in Pulmonary Metastasectomy in Colorectal Cancer (PulMiCC), a randomized, controlled noninferiority trial.

METHOD

Multidisciplinary teams in 14 hospitals recruited patients with resectable lung metastases into a two-arm trial. Randomization was remote and stratified according to site, with minimization for age, sex, primary cancer stage, interval since primary resection, prior liver involvement, number of metastases and carcinoembryonic antigen level. The trial management group was blind to patient allocation until after intention-to-treat analysis.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2016, 93 participants were randomized. These patients were 35-86 years of age and had between one and six lung metastases at a median of 2.7 years after colorectal cancer resection; 29% had prior liver metastasectomy. The patient groups were well matched and the characteristics of these groups were similar to those of observational studies. The median survival after metastasectomy was 3.5 (95% CI: 3.1-6.6) years compared with 3.8 (95% CI: 3.1-4.6) years for controls. The estimated unadjusted hazard ratio for death within 5 years, comparing the metastasectomy group with the control group, was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.56-1.56). Use of chemotherapy or local ablation was infrequent and similar in each group.

CONCLUSION

Patients in the control group (who did not undergo lung metastasectomy) have better survival than is assumed. Survival in the metastasectomy group is comparable with the many single-arm follow-up studies. The groups were well matched with features similar to those reported in case series.

Pulmonary Metastasectomy versus Continued Active Monitoring in Colorectal Cancer (PulMiCC): a multicentre randomised clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Lung metastasectomy in the treatment of advanced colorectal cancer has been widely adopted without good evidence of survival or palliative benefit. We aimed to test its effectiveness in a randomised controlled trial (RCT).

METHODS

Multidisciplinary teams in 13 hospitals recruited participants with potentially resectable lung metastases to a multicentre, two-arm RCT comparing active monitoring with or without metastasectomy. Other local or systemic treatments were decided by the local team. Randomisation was remote and stratified by site with minimisation for age, sex, primary cancer stage, interval since primary resection, prior liver involvement, the number of metastases, and carcinoembryonic antigen level. The central Trial Management Group were blind to patient allocation until completion of the analysis. Analysis was on intention to treat with a margin for non-inferiority of 10%.

RESULTS

Between December 2010 and December 2016, 65 participants were randomised. Characteristics were well-matched in the two arms and similar to those in reported studies: age 35 to 86 years (interquartile range (IQR) 60 to 74); primary resection IQR 16 to 35 months previously; stage at resection T1, 2 or 3 in 3, 8 and 46; N1 or N2 in 31 and 26; unknown in 8. Lung metastases 1 to 5 (median 2); 16/65 had previous liver metastases; carcinoembryonic antigen normal in 55/65. There were no other interventions in the first 6 months, no crossovers from control to treatment, and no treatment-related deaths or major adverse events. The Hazard ratio for death within 5 years, comparing metastasectomy with control, was 0.82 (95%CI 0.43, 1.56).

CONCLUSIONS

Because of poor and worsening recruitment, the study was stopped. The small number of participants in the trial (N = 65) precludes a conclusive answer to the research question given the large overlap in the confidence intervals in the proportions still alive at all time points. A widely held belief is that the 5-year absolute survival benefit with metastasectomy is about 35%: 40% after metastasectomy compared to < 5% in controls. The estimated survival in this study was 38% (23-62%) for metastasectomy patients and 29% (16-52%) in the well-matched controls. That is the new and important finding of this RCT.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT01106261. Registered on 19 April 2010.

Do drugs offering only PFS maintain quality of life sufficiently from a patient's perspective? Results from AVALPROFS (Assessing the 'VALue' to patients of PROgression Free Survival) study

Purpose

Trials of novel drugs used in advanced disease often show only progression-free survival or modest overall survival benefits. Hypothetical studies suggest that stabilisation of metastatic disease and/or symptom burden are worth treatment-related side effects. We examined this premise contemporaneously using qualitative and quantitative methods.

Methods

Patients with metastatic cancers expected to live > 6 months and prescribed drugs aimed at cancer control were interviewed: at baseline, at 6 weeks, at progression, and if treatment was stopped for toxicity. They also completed Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy (FACT-G) plus Anti-Angiogenesis (AA) subscale questionnaires at baseline then monthly for 6 months.

Results

Ninety out of 120 (75%) eligible patients participated: 41 (45%) remained on study for 6 months, 36 progressed or died, 4 had treatment breaks, and 9 withdrew due to toxicity. By 6 weeks, 66/69 (96%) patients were experiencing side effects which impacted their activities. Low QoL scores at baseline did not predict a higher risk of death or dropout. At 6-week interviews, as the side effect severity increased, patients were significantly less inclined to view the benefit of cancer control as worthwhile (X² = 50.7, P < 0.001). Emotional well-being initially improved from baseline by 10 weeks, then gradually returned to baseline levels.

Conclusion

Maintaining QoL is vital to most patients with advanced cancer so minimising treatment-related side effects is essential. As side effect severity increased, drugs that controlled cancer for short periods were not viewed as worthwhile. Patients need to have the therapeutic aims of further anti-cancer treatment explained honestly and sensitively.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00520-018-4273-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Patterns of peripheral joint involvement in psoriatic arthritis-Symmetric, ray and/or row?

OBJECTIVE

We sought to examine whether joint involvement in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) follows a symmetric, ray, and/or row pattern using longitudinal data.

METHODS

Data on activity and clinical damage of the joints of the hands and feet were obtained from a PsA cohort. For each analysis (symmetry, ray or row) for each outcome (joint damage and activity) expected values for table cells under the null hypothesis that joints progress independently to damage or activity were calculated based on a logistic regression model with patient level random effects for the probability of involvement developing between clinic visits. To determine the consistency of observed with expected values, goodness-of-fit tests were performed.

RESULTS

Data from 704 patients were available. The 511 (552) patients with no hand (foot) damage at clinic entry were used for analyses of hand (foot) damage. When considering joint damage, there was strong evidence against independence of joint involvement based on evident symmetric patterns. There was little suggestion of ray patterns of joint damage. There was considerable evidence for row pattern of involvement of joints. When considering joint activity, symmetric patterns were also evident but, unlike joint damage, there was evidence of ray patterns, most notably in the hands. There was also evidence for row pattern involvement.

CONCLUSION

Patterns of peripheral joint involvement seen over time in PsA patients, demonstrate consistency with expected ray patterns of disease activity, especially in the hands, but there is also considerable evidence for symmetric and row patterns for both joint damage and activity.

Major Greenwood (1880-1949): the biography

Background is provided on the discovery of an unpublished biography of Major Greenwood written by one of his sons. The motivation and preparation for online publication of the biography in Statistics in Medicine are outlined. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Meta-analysis of colorectal cancer follow-up after potentially curative resection

Background

After potentially curative resection of primary colorectal cancer, patients may be monitored by measurement of carcinoembryonic antigen and/or CT to detect asymptomatic metastatic disease earlier.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to find evidence for the clinical effectiveness of monitoring in advancing the diagnosis of recurrence and its effect on survival. MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science and other databases were searched for randomized comparisons of increased intensity monitoring compared with a contemporary standard policy after resection of primary colorectal cancer.

Results

There were 16 randomized comparisons, 11 with published survival data. More intensive monitoring advanced the diagnosis of recurrence by a median of 10 (i.q.r. 5–24) months. In ten of 11 studies the authors reported no demonstrable difference in overall survival. Seven RCTs, published from 1995 to 2016, randomly assigned 3325 patients to a monitoring protocol made more intensive by introducing new methods or increasing the frequency of existing follow-up protocols versus less invasive monitoring. No detectable difference in overall survival was associated with more intensive monitoring protocols (hazard ratio 0·98, 95 per cent c.i. 0·87 to 1·11).

Conclusion

Based on pooled data from randomized trials published from 1995 to 2016, the anticipated survival benefit from surgical treatment resulting from earlier detection of metastases has not been achieved.

Major Greenwood (1880-1949): a biographical and bibliographical study

Major Greenwood was the foremost medical statistician of the first half of the 20th century in the U.K. Trained in both medicine and statistics, his career extended over 45 years during which he published eight books, 23 extensive reports and over 200 papers. His classical education extended to Latin and Greek, and he was fluent in German and French. We provide an overview of his life including family background, training and his career subdivided according to the places where he worked. We describe in particular the key role he played with others in the development of medical statistics within the Medical Research Council, the General Register Office, the Department of Health and the Universities.

Factors associated with damage accrual in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We studied damage accrual and factors determining development and progression of damage in an international cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients.

METHODS

The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort recruited patients within 15 months of developing four or more 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria for SLE; the SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI) was measured annually. We assessed relative rates of transition using maximum likelihood estimation in a multistate model. The Kaplan-Meier method estimated the probabilities for time to first increase in SDI score and Cox regression analysis was used to assess mortality.

RESULTS

We recruited 1722 patients; mean (SD) age 35.0 (13.4) years at cohort entry. Patients with damage at enrolment were more likely to have further worsening of SDI (SDI 0 vs ≥1; p<0.001). Age, USA African race/ethnicity, SLEDAI-2K score, steroid use and hypertension were associated with transition from no damage to damage, and increase(s) in pre-existing damage. Male gender (relative transition rates (95% CI) 1.48 (1.06 to 2.08)) and USA Caucasian race/ethnicity (1.63 (1.08 to 2.47)) were associated with SDI 0 to ≥1 transitions; Asian race/ethnicity patients had lower rates of new damage (0.60 (0.39 to 0.93)). Antimalarial use was associated with lower rates of increases in pre-existing damage (0.63 (0.44 to 0.89)). Damage was associated with future mortality (HR (95% CI) 1.46 (1.18 to 1.81) per SDI point).

CONCLUSIONS

Damage in SLE predicts future damage accrual and mortality. We identified several potentially modifiable risk factors for damage accrual; an integrated strategy to address these may improve long-term outcomes.

Randomised controlled trial of tumour necrosis factor inhibitors against combination intensive therapy with conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in established rheumatoid arthritis: the TACIT trial and associated systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is initially treated with methotrexate and other disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). Active RA patients who fail such treatments can receive tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFis), which are effective but expensive.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed whether or not combination DMARDs (cDMARDs) give equivalent clinical benefits at lower costs in RA patients eligible for TNFis.

DESIGN

An open-label, 12-month, pragmatic, randomised, multicentre, two-arm trial [Tumour necrosis factor inhibitors Against Combination Intensive Therapy (TACIT)] compared these treatment strategies. We then systematically reviewed all comparable published trials.

SETTING

The TACIT trial involved 24 English rheumatology clinics.

PARTICIPANTS

Active RA patients eligible for TNFis.

INTERVENTIONS

The TACIT trial compared cDMARDs with TNFis plus methotrexate or another DMARD; 6-month non-responders received (a) TNFis if in the cDMARD group; and (b) a second TNFi if in the TNFi group.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The Heath Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) was the primary outcome measure. The European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D), joint damage, Disease Activity Score for 28 Joints (DAS28), withdrawals and adverse effects were secondary outcome measures. Economic evaluation linked costs, HAQ changes and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS

In total, 432 patients were screened; 104 started on cDMARDs and 101 started on TNFis. The initial demographic and disease assessments were similar between the groups. In total, 16 patients were lost to follow-up (nine in the cDMARD group, seven in the TNFi group) and 42 discontinued their intervention but were followed up (23 in the cDMARD group and 19 in the TNFi group). Intention-to-treat analysis with multiple imputation methods used for missing data showed greater 12-month HAQ score reductions with initial cDMARDs than with initial TNFis [adjusted linear regression coefficient 0.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.003 to 0.31; p = 0.046]. Increases in 12-month EQ-5D scores were greater with initial cDMARDs (adjusted linear regression coefficient -0.11, 95% CI -0.18 to -0.03; p = 0.009) whereas 6-month changes in HAQ and EQ-5D scores and 6- and 12-month changes in joint damage were similar between the initial cDMARD group and the initial TNFi group. Longitudinal analyses (adjusted general estimating equations) showed that the DAS28 was lower in the initial TNFi group in the first 6 months (coefficient -0.63, 95% CI -0.93 to -0.34; p < 0.001) but there were no differences between the groups in months 6-12. In total, 36 patients in the initial cDMARD group and 44 in the initial TNFi group achieved DAS28 remission. The onset of remission did not differ between groups (p = 0.085 on log-rank test). In total, 10 patients in the initial cDMARD group and 18 in the initial TNFi group experienced serious adverse events; stopping therapy because of toxicity occurred in 10 and six patients respectively. Economic evaluation showed that the cDMARD group had similar or better QALY outcomes than TNFi with significantly lower costs at 6 and 12 months. In the systematic reviews we identified 32 trials (including 20-1049 patients) on early RA and 19 trials (including 40-982 patients) on established RA that compared (1) cDMARDs with DMARD monotherapy; (2) TNFis/methotrexate with methotrexate monotherapy; and (3) cDMARDs with TNFis/methotrexate. They showed that cDMARDs and TNFis had similar efficacies and toxicities.

CONCLUSIONS

Active RA patients who have failed methotrexate and another DMARD achieve equivalent clinical benefits at a lower cost from starting cDMARDs or from starting TNFis (reserving TNFis for non-responders). Only a minority of patients achieve sustained remission with cDMARDs or TNFis; new strategies are needed to maximise the frequency of remission.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Control Trials ISRCTN37438295.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 18, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Tumour necrosis factor inhibitors versus combination intensive therapy with conventional disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs in established rheumatoid arthritis: TACIT non-inferiority randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether intensive combinations of synthetic disease modifying drugs can achieve similar clinical benefits at lower costs to high cost biologics such as tumour necrosis factor inhibitors in patients with active rheumatoid arthritis resistant to initial methotrexate and other synthetic disease modifying drugs.

DESIGN

Open label pragmatic randomised multicentre two arm non-inferiority trial over 12 months.

SETTING

24 rheumatology clinics in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with rheumatoid arthritis who were eligible for treatment with tumour necrosis factor inhibitors according to current English guidance were randomised to either the tumour necrosis factor inhibitor strategy or the combined disease modifying drug strategy.

INTERVENTIONS

Biologic strategy: start tumour necrosis factor inhibitor; second biologic in six month for non-responders. Alternative strategy: start combination of disease modifying drugs; start tumour necrosis factor inhibitors after six months in non-responders.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

reduction in disability at 12 months measured with patient recorded heath assessment questionnaire (range 0.00-3.00) with a 0.22 non-inferiority margin for combination treatment versus the biologic strategy.

SECONDARY OUTCOMES

quality of life, joint damage, disease activity, adverse events, and costs. Intention to treat analysis used multiple imputation methods for missing data.

RESULTS

432 patients were screened: 107 were randomised to tumour necrosis factor inhibitors and 101 started taking; 107 were randomised to the combined drug strategy and 104 started taking the drugs. Initial assessments were similar; 16 patients were lost to follow-up (seven with the tumour necrosis factor inhibitor strategy, nine with the combined drug strategy); 42 discontinued the intervention but were followed-up (19 and 23, respectively). The primary outcome showed mean falls in scores on the health assessment questionnaire of -0.30 with the tumour necrosis factor inhibitor strategy and -0.45 with the alternative combined drug strategy. The difference between groups in unadjusted linear regression analysis favoured the alternative strategy of combined drugs. The mean difference was -0.14, and the 95% confidence interval (-0.29 to 0.01) was below the prespecified non-inferiority boundary of 0.22. Improvements at 12 months in secondary outcomes, including quality of life and erosive progression, were similar with both strategies. Initial reductions in disease activity were greater with the biologic strategy, but these differences did not persist beyond six months. Remission was seen in 72 patients (44 with biologic strategy; 36 with alternative strategy); 28 patients had serious adverse events (18 and 10, respectively); six and 10 patients, respectively, stopped treatment because of toxicity. The alternative strategy reduced health and social care costs per patient by £3615 (€4930, $5585) for months 0-6 and £1930 for months 6-12.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with active rheumatoid arthritis who meet English criteria for biologics an alternative strategy with combinations of intensive synthetic disease modifying drugs gives non-inferior outcomes to treatment with tumour necrosis factor inhibitors. Costs are reduced substantially.Trial Registration ISRCTN 37438295.

The functional MICA-129 polymorphism is associated with skin but not joint manifestations of psoriatic disease independently of HLA-B and HLA-C

A methionine/valine polymorphism at amino acid 129 of the major histocompatibility complex class I chain-related gene A (MICA-129) categorizes alleles into strong and weak binders of the natural killer (NK) and T-cell receptor NKG2D. We investigated whether MICA-129 is differentially associated with skin and joint manifestations of psoriatic disease (PsD) independently of human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-C and HLA-B in patients and controls from Toronto and St. John's. The MICA-129 methionine (Met) allele, particularly Met/Met homozygosity, was strongly associated with both cutaneous psoriasis (PsC) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) independently of HLA-B and HLA-C in Toronto patients, and was also associated with PsA in St. John's patients, but with no additional effect of Met/Met homozygosity. No association remained after adjustment for HLA alleles in St. John's patients. MICA-129 was not associated with PsA when compared with PsC. We conclude that MICA-129 is a marker of skin manifestations of PsD that is independent of HLA class I in Toronto patients.

Drivers and barriers to patient participation in RCTs

BACKGROUND

Recruitment of patients into randomised clinical trials (RCTs) is essential for treatment evaluation. Appreciation of the barriers and drivers towards participation is important for trial design, communication and information provision.

METHOD

As part of an intervention to facilitate effective multidisciplinary team communication about RCTs, cancer patients completed two study-specific questionnaires following trial discussions. One questionnaire examined reasons why patients accepted or declined trial entry, the other perceptions about their health-care professionals' (HCPs) information giving.

RESULTS

Questionnaires were completed by 74% (358/486) of patients approached; of these 81% (291/358) had joined an RCT, 16% (56/358) had declined and 3% (11/358) were undecided. Trial participation status of the 128 patients not returning questionnaires is unknown. Trial acceptance was not dependent on disease stage, tumour type, sex or age. Satisfaction with trial information and HCPs' communication was generally very good, irrespective of participation decisions. The primary reason given for trial acceptance was altruism (40%; 110/275), and for declining, trust in the doctor (28%; 12/43). Decliners preferred doctors to choose their treatment rather than be randomised (54% vs 39%; P<0.027). Acceptors were more likely to perceive doctors as wanting them to join trials (54% vs 30%; P<0.001). Trial type, that is, standard treatment vs novel or different durations of treatment, also influenced acceptance rates.

CONCLUSION

The drivers and barriers to trial participation are partly related to trial design. Unease about randomisation and impact of duration on treatment efficacy are barriers for some. Altruism and HCPs' perceived attitudes are powerful influencing factors.

Hilda Mary Woods MBE, DSc, LRAM, FSS (1892-1971): reflections on a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society

We have previously described the content of a text by Woods and Russell, An Introduction to Medical Statistics, compared it with Principles of Medical Statistics by Hill and set both volumes against the background of vital statistics up until 1937. The two books mark a watershed in the history of medical statistics. Very little has been recorded about the life and career of the first author of the earlier textbook, who was a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society for at least 25 years, an omission which we can now rectify with this paper. We describe her education, entry into medical statistics, relationship with Major Greenwood and her subsequent career and life in Ceylon, Kenya, Australia, England and South Africa.

Autoantibodies as biomarkers for the prediction of neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

Neuropsychiatric events occur unpredictably in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and most biomarker associations remain to be prospectively validated. This study examined a disease inception cohort of 1047 SLE patients to determine which autoantibodies at enrolment predicted subsequent neuropsychiatric events.

METHODS

Patients with a recent SLE diagnosis were assessed prospectively for up to 10 years for neuropsychiatric events using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions. Decision rules of graded stringency determined whether neuropsychiatric events were attributable to SLE. Associations between the first neuropsychiatric event and baseline autoantibodies (lupus anticoagulant (LA), anticardiolipin, anti-β(2) glycoprotein-I, anti-ribosomal P and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor) were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Disease duration at enrolment was 5.4 ± 4.2 months, follow-up was 3.6 ± 2.6 years. Patients were 89.1% female with mean (±SD) age 35.2 ± 13.7 years. 495/1047 (47.3%) developed one or more neuropsychiatric event (total 917 events). Neuropsychiatric events attributed to SLE were 15.4% (model A) and 28.2% (model B). At enrolment 21.9% of patients had LA, 13.4% anticardiolipin, 15.1% anti-β(2) glycoprotein-I, 9.2% anti-ribosomal P and 13.7% anti-NR2 antibodies. LA at baseline was associated with subsequent intracranial thrombosis (total n=22) attributed to SLE (model B) (HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.94). Anti-ribosomal P antibody was associated with subsequent psychosis (total n=14) attributed to SLE (model B) (HR 3.92, 95% CI 1.23 to 12.5, p=0.02). Other autoantibodies did not predict neuropsychiatric events.

CONCLUSION

In a prospective study of 1047 recently diagnosed SLE patients, LA and anti-ribosomal P antibodies are associated with an increased future risk of intracranial thrombosis and lupus psychosis, respectively.

Pulmonary metastasectomy in colorectal cancer: the PulMiCC trial

PulMiCC (Pulmonary Metastasectomy in Colorectal Cancer) is a randomised controlled trial funded by Cancer Research UK. Patients with a history of resected colorectal cancer who are found to have pulmonary metastases are first registered for evaluation and, if subsequently eligible for the trial, they are invited to be randomly allocated to 'active monitoring' or 'active monitoring with pulmonary metastasectomy'. The clinical outcomes are overall survival, relapse-free survival, lung function and patient-reported quality of life.

Clinicians' attitudes towards clinical trials of cancer therapy

Background:

Patient accrual into cancer clinical trials remains at low levels. This survey elicited attitudes and practices of cancer clinicians towards clinical trials.

Method:

The 43-item Clinicians Attitudes to Clinical Trials Questionnaire was completed by participants in an intervention study aimed at improving multi-disciplinary involvement in randomised trials. Responses from 13 items were summed to form a research-orientation score.

Results:

Eighty-seven clinicians (78%) returned questionnaires. Physicians, more often than surgeons, chose to prioritise prolonging a patient's life, recruited ⩾50% of patients into trials and attended more research-focussed conferences. Clinicians at specialist centres were more positive about trials with no-treatment arms than those at district general hospitals, more likely to believe clinician, rather than patient reluctance to participate was the greater obstacle to trial accrual, and preferred national and international to local recognition. Clinicians belonging to breast and colorectal teams were less disappointed about not enrolling patients in trials and more accepting of no-treatment arm trials. Research orientation was higher in physicians than surgeons and higher in specialist centres than district hospitals.

Conclusions:

This study provides greater understanding of clinicians’ attitudes to trials. Results have been used to inform training interventions for clinicians targeting the problem of low and selective accrual.

SF-36 summary and subscale scores are reliable outcomes of neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To examine change in health-related quality of life in association with clinical outcomes of neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

An international study evaluated newly diagnosed SLE patients for neuropsychiatric events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes. The outcome of events was determined by a physician-completed seven-point scale and compared with patient-completed Short Form 36 (SF-36) health survey questionnaires. Statistical analysis used linear mixed-effects regression models with patient-specific random effects.

RESULTS

274 patients (92% female; 68% Caucasian), from a cohort of 1400, had one or more neuropsychiatric event in which the interval between assessments was 12.3 ± 2 months. The overall difference in change between visits in mental component summary (MCS) scores of the SF-36 was significant (p<0.0001) following adjustments for gender, ethnicity, centre and previous score. A consistent improvement in neuropsychiatric status (N=295) was associated with an increase in the mean (SD) adjusted MCS score of 3.66 (0.89) in SF-36 scores. Between paired visits when the neuropsychiatric status consistently deteriorated (N=30), the adjusted MCS score decreased by 4.00 (1.96). For the physical component summary scores the corresponding changes were +1.73 (0.71) and -0.62 (1.58) (p<0.05), respectively. Changes in SF-36 subscales were in the same direction (p<0.05; with the exception of role physical). Sensitivity analyses confirmed these findings. Adjustment for age, education, medications, SLE disease activity, organ damage, disease duration, attribution and characteristics of neuropsychiatric events did not substantially alter the results.

CONCLUSION

Changes in SF-36 summary and subscale scores, in particular those related to mental health, are strongly associated with the clinical outcome of neuropsychiatric events in SLE patients.

Assessment of joint symmetry in arthritis

We evaluate three methods for the assessment of symmetry in the joints affected by an arthritic disease. The first two methods, based on published methodology, are limited by their assumptions. We introduce a third method that enables a more comprehensive investigation. In common with previous methods, this method examines tabulations of observed data for evidence of symmetry. Expected values for the table cells are simulated under an assumption of independent joint disease, whilst allowing for differences between patients, and joint locations, in terms of their susceptibility to disease symptoms. Departures of observed from expected values are assessed via a Pearson-type goodness-of-fit test and are examined for consistency with symmetry. We illustrate the three methods using data on the damage accrued in the hand joints of patients registered at the University of Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis clinic.

Woods and Russell, Hill, and the emergence of medical statistics

In 1937, Austin Bradford Hill wrote Principles of Medical Statistics (Lancet: London, 1937) that became renowned throughout the world and is widely associated with the birth of modern medical statistics. Some 6 years earlier Hilda Mary Woods and William Thomas Russell, colleagues of Hill at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, wrote a similar book An Introduction to Medical Statistics (PS King and Son: London, 1931) that is little known today. We trace the origins of these two books from the foundations of early demography and vital statistics, and make a detailed examination of some of their chapters. It is clear that these texts mark a watershed in the history of medical statistics that demarcates the vital statistics of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries from the modern discipline. Moreover, we consider that the book by Woods and Russell is of some importance in the development of medical statistics and we describe and acknowledge their place in the history of this discipline.

Prospective study of neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To prospectively examine neuropsychiatric (NP) events and their association with health related quality of life (HRQOL) over time in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

In an observational cohort study from a single academic center, NP events and their attribution were identified at enrollment and at annual assessments for up to 7 years. NP events were characterized using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions; other variables were global SLE disease activity and cumulative organ damage. The outcomes of NP events were recorded and self-report HRQOL was measured with the mental (MCS) and physical (PCS) component summary scores of the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36.

RESULTS

There were 209 patients, 88% female and 92% Caucasian, with a mean (standard deviation) age of 43.7 (13.8) years. Followup was available in 175/209 (84%) patients. There were 299 NP events in 132/209 (63%) patients over a mean followup of 3.6 (2.5) years. Thirty-one percent of NP events in 54 patients were attributed to SLE. Multivariate analysis indicated lower MCS scores in patients with NP events compared to those without events (p < 0.001) regardless of attribution. The group means for PCS scores were significantly lower in patients with NP events (p < 0.001) regardless of attribution. There was no association between HRQOL and cumulative organ damage, nor between NP events and the progression of organ damage.

CONCLUSION

The association of lower HRQOL with NP events over time, which is independent of progression in cumulative organ damage, emphasizes the persistent negative effect of NP events in the lives of patients with SLE.

Prospective analysis of neuropsychiatric events in an international disease inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVES

To determine the frequency, accrual, attribution and outcome of neuropsychiatric (NP) events and impact on quality of life over 3 years in a large inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

The study was conducted by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics. Patients were enrolled within 15 months of SLE diagnosis. NP events were identified using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions, and decision rules were derived to determine the proportion of NP disease attributable to SLE. The outcome of NP events was recorded and patient-perceived impact determined by the SF-36.

RESULTS

1206 patients (89.6% female) with a mean (+/-SD) age of 34.5+/-13.2 years were included in the study. The mean disease duration at enrollment was 5.4+/-4.2 months. Over a mean follow-up of 1.9+/-1.2 years, 486/1206 (40.3%) patients had > or =1 NP events, which were attributed to SLE in 13.0-23.6% of patients using two a priori decision rules. The frequency of individual NP events varied from 47.1% (headache) to 0% (myasthenia gravis). The outcome was significantly better for those NP events attributed to SLE, especially if they occurred within 1.5 years of the diagnosis of SLE. Patients with NP events, regardless of attribution, had significantly lower summary scores for both mental and physical health over the study.

CONCLUSIONS

NP events in patients with SLE are of variable frequency, most commonly present early in the disease course and adversely impact patients' quality of life over time. Events attributed to non-SLE causes are more common than those due to SLE, although the latter have a more favourable outcome.

Pulmonary metastasectomy in colorectal cancer: time for a trial

Pulmonary metastasectomy is undertaken for a range of cancers. The questions we raise here are specifically related to colorectal cancer, the commonest tumour for which pulmonary metastasectomy is undertaken. The primary objective of metastasectomy is to increase survival. There are no randomised trials in support of this practice nor are there any other forms of controlled studies. We present a critical look at the assumption of efficacy for this surgery and propose that a trial is needed and suggest a trial design.

Short-term outcome of neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus upon enrollment into an international inception cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the short-term outcome of neuropsychiatric (NP) events upon enrollment into an international inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

The study was performed by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics. Patients were enrolled within 15 months of SLE diagnosis and NP events were characterized using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions. Decision rules were derived to identify NP events attributable to SLE. Physician outcome scores of NP events and patient-derived mental component summary (MCS) and physical component summary (PCS) scores of the Short Form 36 were recorded.

RESULTS

There were 890 patients (88.7% female) with a mean +/- SD age of 33.8 +/- 13.4 years and mean disease duration of 5.3 +/- 4.2 months. Within the enrollment window, 271 (33.5%) of 890 patients had at least 1 NP event encompassing 15 NP syndromes. NP events attributed to SLE varied from 16.5% to 33.9% using alternate attribution models and occurred in 6.0-11.5% of patients. Outcome scores for NP events attributed to SLE were significantly better than for NP events due to non-SLE causes. Higher global disease activity was associated with worse outcomes. MCS scores were lower in patients with NP events, regardless of attribution, and were also lower in patients with diffuse and central NP events. There was a significant association between physician outcome scores and patient MCS scores only for NP events attributed to SLE.

CONCLUSION

In SLE patients, the short-term outcome of NP events is determined by both the characteristics and attribution of the events.

Factorial randomised controlled trial of glucocorticoids and combination disease modifying drugs in early rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE

Treating early active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) monotherapy achieves incomplete outcomes and intensive treatment seems preferable. As the relative benefits of combining two DMARDs, one DMARD with glucocorticoids and two DMARDs with glucocorticoids are uncertain we defined them in a factorial trial.

METHODS

A 2-year randomised double-blind factorial trial in patients with RA within 2 years of diagnosis treated with methotrexate studied the benefits of added ciclosporin, 9 months intensive prednisolone or both (triple therapy). The primary outcome was the number of patients with new erosions. Secondary outcomes included Larsen's x-ray scores, disability, quality of life and adverse events.

FINDINGS

1391 patients were screened and 467 randomised. Over 2 years 132 (28%) changed therapy and 88 (19%) were lost to follow-up. The number of patients with new erosions was reduced by nearly half by adding ciclosporin or prednisolone (p = 0.01 and 0.03); both treatments reduced increases in Larsen's x-ray scores by over 2 units (p = 0.008 and 0.003). A further reduction in erosive damage was seen with combined use of both treatments. Their effects on erosive damage appeared independent. Triple therapy reduced disability and improved quality of life compared with methotrexate; ciclosporin and prednisolone acted synergistically. More patients withdrew because of adverse events with triple therapy, without an increase in serious adverse effects.

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirms the existence of a "window of opportunity" in early RA, when intensive combination therapy produces sustained benefits on damage and disability. Although methotrexate-prednisolone combinations reduce erosive damage, the synergistic effect of two DMARDs is needed to improve quality of life.

Autoantibodies and neuropsychiatric events at the time of systemic lupus erythematosus diagnosis: results from an international inception cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To examine, in an inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients, the association between neuropsychiatric (NP) events and anti-ribosomal P (anti-P), antiphospholipid (lupus anticoagulant [LAC], anticardiolipin), anti-beta2-glycoprotein I, and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor antibodies.

METHODS

NP events were identified using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions and clustered into central/peripheral and diffuse/focal events. Attribution of NP events to SLE was determined using decision rules of differing stringency. Autoantibodies were measured without knowledge of NP events or their attribution.

RESULTS

Four hundred twelve patients were studied (87.4% female; mean +/- SD age 34.9 +/- 13.5 years, mean +/- SD disease duration 5.0 +/- 4.2 months). There were 214 NP events in 133 patients (32.3%). The proportion of NP events attributed to SLE varied from 15% to 36%. There was no association between autoantibodies and NP events overall. However, the frequency of anti-P antibodies in patients with central NP events attributed to SLE was 4 of 20 (20%), versus 3 of 107 (2.8%) in patients with other NP events and 24 of 279 (8.6%) in those with no NP events (P = 0.04). Among patients with diffuse NP events, 3 of 11 had anti-P antibodies (27%), compared with 4 of 111 patients with other NP events (3.6%) and 24 of 279 of those with no NP events (8.6%) (P = 0.02). Specific clinical-serologic associations were found between anti-P and psychosis attributed to SLE (P = 0.02) and between LAC and cerebrovascular disease attributed to SLE (P = 0.038). There was no significant association between other autoantibodies and NP events.

CONCLUSION

Clinically distinct NP events attributed to SLE and occurring around the time of diagnosis were found to be associated with anti-P antibodies and LAC. This suggests that there are different autoimmune pathogenetic mechanisms, although low sensitivity limits the clinical application of testing for these antibodies.

‘A memorandum on the Present Position and Prospects of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology’ by Major Greenwood

We present an unpublished, possibly unsent, memorandum written by Major Greenwood in 1928 that is of historical importance. It raises three issues, namely, the profile of medical statistics in 1928, the development of mathematical statistics in the U.K., and the staffing of his own department. Some of these issues are still relevant today. We discuss each of them against the historical background of the first quarter of the 20th century. Some additional biographical details relevant to the understanding of the memorandum are provided in an Appendix.

Neuropsychiatric events at the time of diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus: An international inception cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the prevalence, characteristics, attribution, and clinical significance of neuropsychiatric (NP) events in an international inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients.

METHODS

The study was conducted by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC). Patients were enrolled within 15 months of fulfilling the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria. All NP events within a predefined enrollment window were identified using the ACR case definitions of 19 NP syndromes. Decision rules were derived to determine the proportion of NP disease attributable to SLE. Clinical significance was determined using the Short Form 36 (SF-36) Health Survey and the SLICC/ACR Damage Index (SDI).

RESULTS

A total of 572 patients (88% female) were recruited, with a mean +/- SD age of 35 +/- 14 years. The mean +/- SD disease duration was 5.2 +/- 4.2 months. Within the enrollment window, 158 of 572 patients (28%) had at least 1 NP event. In total, there were 242 NP events that encompassed 15 of 19 NP syndromes. The proportion of NP events attributed to SLE varied from 19% to 38% using alternate attribution models and occurred in 6.1-11.7% of patients. Those with NP events, regardless of attribution, had lower scores on the SF-36 and higher SDI scores compared with patients with no NP events.

CONCLUSION

Twenty-eight percent of SLE patients experienced at least 1 NP event around the time of diagnosis of SLE, of which only a minority were attributed to SLE. Regardless of attribution, the occurrence of NP events was associated with reduced quality of life and increased organ damage.

TNFalpha polymorphisms and risk of psoriatic arthritis

BACKGROUND

Tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) is a cytokine of critical importance in psoriatic arthritis.

OBJECTIVES

(1) To examine the association between TNFalpha promoter gene polymorphisms and psoriatic arthritis in two well characterised Canadian populations with the disease; (2) to carry out a meta-analysis of all TNFalpha association studies in white psoriatic arthritis populations.

METHODS

DNA samples were genotyped for five TNF variants by time of flight mass spectrometry using the Sequenom platform. All five single nucleotide polymorphisms were in the 5' flanking region of TNFalpha gene at the following positions: -1031 (T-->C), -863 (C-->A), -857 (C-->T), -308 (G-->A), and -238 (G-->A). Primary analyses were based on logistic regression. Summary estimates of disease/genotype relations from several studies were derived from random effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

237 psoriatic arthritis subjects and 103 controls from Newfoundland and 203 psoriatic arthritis subjects and 101 controls from Toronto were studied. A combined analysis of data from both populations, showed a significant association between disease status and the -238(A) variant (p=0.01). The meta-analysis estimate for the -238(A) TNFalpha variant in eight psoriatic arthritis populations was also significant (odds ratio=2.29 (95% confidence interval, 1.48 to 3.55)).

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of TNFalpha variants in psoriatic arthritis populations shows that the -238 (A) variant is a significant risk factor for this disease.

BILAG 2004. Development and initial validation of an updated version of the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group's disease activity index for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To devise a more discriminating version of the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG) disease activity index and to show that it is reliable.

METHODS

A nominal consensus approach was undertaken by members of BILAG to update and improve the BILAG lupus disease activity index. The index has been revised following intense consultations over a 1-yr period. It has been assessed in two real-patient exercises. These involved patients with diverse clinical features of SLE, including gastrointestinal, hepatic and ophthalmic problems, which the earlier versions of the index did not fully take into account. Reliability in terms of the ability to differentiate patients was assessed by calculating intraclass correlation coefficients. The level of agreement between physicians was determined by calculating the ratio of estimates of the standard error (SE) attributable to the physicians to the SE attributable to the patients.

RESULTS

Good reliability and high levels of physician agreement were observed in one or both exercises in the constitutional, mucocutaneous, neurological, cardiorespiratory, renal, ophthalmic and haematological systems. In contrast, the musculoskeletal system did not score as well, although providing more clear-cut glossary definitions should greatly improve the situation.

CONCLUSIONS

Some significant changes in the BILAG disease activity index to assess patients with SLE are proposed. The process of demonstrating validity and reliability has started with these two exercises assessing real patients. Further validation studies are under way. BILAG 2004 is likely to be valuable in clinical trials assessing new therapies for the treatment of SLE, as it provides a more comprehensive system-based disease activity measure than has been available previously.