Modeling Population Growth under Climate Stressors Using Age-structured Matrix Models

Climate resilience, a focus of many recent studies, has been examined from ecological, physiological, and evolutionary perspectives. However, sampling biases towards adults, males, and certain species have made establishing the link between environmental change and population-level change problematic. Here we used data from four laboratory studies, in which we administered pre- and post-natal stressors, such as suboptimal incubation temperature, heat stress, and food restriction, to zebra finches and quantified hatching success, post-hatch survival, and reproductive success, to parameterize age-structured population dynamics models with the goal of estimating the effect of the stressors on relative population growth rates. Using the same model structure, we tested the hypothesis that early life stages influence population growth rate more than later life stages. Our models suggested that stressful events during embryonic development, such as suboptimal incubation temperatures and reduced gas exchange for the embryos, have a greater total impact on population growth than post-hatch stressors, such as heat stress and food restriction. However, among life history traits, differences in hatching success and sex ratio of offspring in response to stressors changed population growth rates more than differences in any other demographic rate estimates. These results suggest that when predicting population resilience against climate change, it is critical to account for effects of climate change on all life stages, including early stages of life, and to incorporate individuals' physiology and stress tolerance that likely influence future stress responses, reproduction, and survival.

Detrimental or beneficial? Untangling the literature on developmental stress studies in birds

Developing animals display a tremendous ability to change the course of their developmental path in response to the environment they experience, a concept referred to as developmental plasticity. This change in behavior, physiology or cellular processes is primarily thought to allow animals to better accommodate themselves to the surrounding environment. However, existing data on developmental stress and whether it brings about beneficial or detrimental outcomes show conflicting results. There are several well-referred hypotheses related to developmental stress in the current literature, such as the environmental matching, silver spoon and thrifty phenotype hypotheses. These hypotheses speculate that the early-life environment defines the capacity of the physiological functions and behavioral tendencies and that this change is permanent and impacts the fitness of the individual. These hypotheses also postulate there is a trade-off among organ systems and physiological functions when resources are insufficient. Published data on avian taxa show that some effects of developmental nutritional and thermal stressors are long lasting, such as the effects on body mass and birdsong. Although hypotheses on developmental stress are based on fitness components, data on reproduction and survival are scarce, making it difficult to determine which hypothesis these data support. Furthermore, most physiological and performance measures are collected only once; thus, the physiological mechanisms remain undertested. Here, we offer potential avenues of research to identify reasons behind the contrasting results in developmental stress research and possible ways to determine whether developmental programming due to stressors is beneficial or detrimental, including quantifying reproduction and survival in multiple environments, measuring temporal changes in physiological variables and testing for stress resistance later in life.