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Niva V, Horton A, Virkki V, Heino M, Kosonen M, Kallio M, Kinnunen P, Abel GJ, Muttarak R, Taka M, Varis O, Kummu M. World's human migration patterns in 2000-2019 unveiled by high-resolution data. Nat Hum Behav 2023; 7:2023-2037. [PMID: 37679443 PMCID: PMC10663150 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01689-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2022] [Accepted: 08/01/2023] [Indexed: 09/09/2023]
Abstract
Despite being a topical issue in public debate and on the political agenda for many countries, a global-scale, high-resolution quantification of migration and its major drivers for the recent decades remained missing. We created a global dataset of annual net migration between 2000 and 2019 (~10 km grid, covering the areas of 216 countries or sovereign states), based on reported and downscaled subnational birth (2,555 administrative units) and death (2,067 administrative units) rates. We show that, globally, around 50% of the world's urban population lived in areas where migration accelerated urban population growth, while a third of the global population lived in provinces where rural areas experienced positive net migration. Finally, we show that, globally, socioeconomic factors are more strongly associated with migration patterns than climatic factors. While our method is dependent on census data, incurring notable uncertainties in regions where census data coverage or quality is low, we were able to capture migration patterns not only between but also within countries, as well as by socioeconomic and geophysical zonings. Our results highlight the importance of subnational analysis of migration-a necessity for policy design, international cooperation and shared responsibility for managing internal and international migration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Venla Niva
- Water and Environmental Engineering Research Group, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland.
| | - Alexander Horton
- Water and Environmental Engineering Research Group, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Vili Virkki
- Water and Environmental Engineering Research Group, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Matias Heino
- Water and Environmental Engineering Research Group, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Maria Kosonen
- Water and Environmental Engineering Research Group, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Marko Kallio
- Water and Environmental Engineering Research Group, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
- Geoinformatics Research Group, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Pekka Kinnunen
- Water and Environmental Engineering Research Group, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Guy J Abel
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China
- Faculty of Social Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
| | - Raya Muttarak
- Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Maija Taka
- Water and Environmental Engineering Research Group, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Olli Varis
- Water and Environmental Engineering Research Group, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Matti Kummu
- Water and Environmental Engineering Research Group, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland.
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2
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Richardson K, Steffen W, Lucht W, Bendtsen J, Cornell SE, Donges JF, Drüke M, Fetzer I, Bala G, von Bloh W, Feulner G, Fiedler S, Gerten D, Gleeson T, Hofmann M, Huiskamp W, Kummu M, Mohan C, Nogués-Bravo D, Petri S, Porkka M, Rahmstorf S, Schaphoff S, Thonicke K, Tobian A, Virkki V, Wang-Erlandsson L, Weber L, Rockström J. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries. Sci Adv 2023; 9:eadh2458. [PMID: 37703365 PMCID: PMC10499318 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adh2458] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 54.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2023] [Accepted: 07/12/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Abstract
This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine Richardson
- Globe Institute, Faculty of Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Will Steffen
- Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - Wolfgang Lucht
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Jørgen Bendtsen
- Globe Institute, Faculty of Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Sarah E. Cornell
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jonathan F. Donges
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Markus Drüke
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Ingo Fetzer
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Govindasamy Bala
- Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka – 560012, India
| | - Werner von Bloh
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Georg Feulner
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Stephanie Fiedler
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and Faculty for Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, Kiel, Germany
| | - Dieter Gerten
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Tom Gleeson
- Department of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
- School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Matthias Hofmann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Willem Huiskamp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Matti Kummu
- Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Chinchu Mohan
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and Faculty for Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, Kiel, Germany
- Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
- Waterplan (YC S21), San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - David Nogués-Bravo
- Globe Institute, Faculty of Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Stefan Petri
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Miina Porkka
- Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Stefan Rahmstorf
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Sibyll Schaphoff
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Kirsten Thonicke
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Arne Tobian
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Vili Virkki
- Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Lan Wang-Erlandsson
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Lisa Weber
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and Faculty for Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, Kiel, Germany
| | - Johan Rockström
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Institute for Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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Sandström V, Chrysafi A, Lamminen M, Troell M, Jalava M, Piipponen J, Siebert S, van Hal O, Virkki V, Kummu M. Food system by-products upcycled in livestock and aquaculture feeds can increase global food supply. Nat Food 2022; 3:729-740. [PMID: 37118146 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-022-00589-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2021] [Accepted: 08/10/2022] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Abstract
Many livestock and aquaculture feeds compete for resources with food production. Increasing the use of food system by-products and residues as feed could reduce this competition. We gathered data on global food system material flows for crop, livestock and aquaculture production, focusing on feed use and the availability of by-products and residues. We then analysed the potential of replacing food-competing feedstuff-here cereals, whole fish, vegetable oils and pulses that account for 15% of total feed use-with food system by-products and residues. Considering the nutritional requirements of food-producing animals, including farmed aquatic species, this replacement could increase the current global food supply by up to 13% (10-16%) in terms of kcal and 15% (12-19%) in terms of protein content. Increasing the use of food system by-products as feed has considerable potential, particularly when combined with other measures, in the much-needed transition towards circular food systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vilma Sandström
- Water & Development Research Group, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland.
| | - Anna Chrysafi
- Water & Development Research Group, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Marjukka Lamminen
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Max Troell
- Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Mika Jalava
- Water & Development Research Group, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | | | - Stefan Siebert
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Ollie van Hal
- Louis Bolk Institute, Bunnik, the Netherlands
- Animal Production Systems group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Vili Virkki
- Water & Development Research Group, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Matti Kummu
- Water & Development Research Group, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland.
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Horton AJ, Virkki V, Lounela A, Miettinen J, Alibakhshi S, Kummu M. Identifying Key Drivers of Peatland Fires Across Kalimantan's Ex-Mega Rice Project Using Machine Learning. Earth Space Sci 2021; 8:e2021EA001873. [PMID: 35864915 PMCID: PMC9286596 DOI: 10.1029/2021ea001873] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2021] [Revised: 10/29/2021] [Accepted: 11/02/2021] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Throughout Indonesia ecological degradation, agricultural expansion, and the digging of drainage canals has compromised the integrity and functioning of peatland forests. Fragmented landscapes of scrubland, cultivation, degraded forest, and newly established plantations are then susceptible to extensive fires that recur each year. However, a comprehensive understanding of all the drivers of fire distribution and the conditions of initiation is still absent. Here we show the first analysis in the region that encompasses a wide range of driving factors within a single model that captures the inter-annual variation, as well as the spatial distribution of peatland fires. We developed a fire susceptibility model using machine learning (XGBoost random forest) that characterizes the relationships between key predictor variables and the distribution of historic fire locations. We then determined the relative importance of each predictor variable in controlling the initiation and spread of fires. The model included land-cover classifications, a forest clearance index, vegetation indices, drought indices, distances to infrastructure, topography, and peat depth, as well as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). The model performance consistently scores highly in both accuracy and precision across all years (>75% and >67.5% respectively), though recall metrics are much lower (>25%). Our results confirm the anthropogenic dependence of extreme fires in the region, with distance to settlements and distance to canals consistently weighted the most important driving factors within the model structure. Our results may help target the root causes of fire initiation and propagation to better construct regulation and rehabilitation efforts to mitigate future fires.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Vili Virkki
- Department of Built EnvironmentAalto UniversityEspooFinland
| | - Anu Lounela
- Development Studies, Social and Cultural AnthropologyUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
| | | | - Sara Alibakhshi
- Department of Geosciences and GeographyUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
| | - Matti Kummu
- Department of Built EnvironmentAalto UniversityEspooFinland
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5
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Munia HA, Guillaume JHA, Wada Y, Veldkamp T, Virkki V, Kummu M. Future Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change: A Global Study. Earths Future 2020; 8:e2019EF001321. [PMID: 32728594 PMCID: PMC7380305 DOI: 10.1029/2019ef001321] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2019] [Revised: 05/12/2020] [Accepted: 05/14/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Various transboundary river basins are facing increased pressure on water resources in near future. However, little is known ab out the future drivers globally, namely, changes in natural local runoff and natural inflows from upstream parts of a basin, as well as local and upstream water consumption. Here we use an ensemble of four global hydrological models forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration (RCP) and socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios to assess the impact of these drivers on transboundary water stress in the past and future. Our results show that population under water stress is expected to increase by 50% under a low population growth and emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and double under a high population growth and emission scenario (SSP3-RCP6.0), compared to the year 2010. As changes in water availability have a smaller effect when water is not yet scarce, changes in water stress globally are dominated by local water consumption-managing local demand is thus necessary in order to avoid future stress. Focusing then on the role of upstream changes, we identified upstream availability (i.e., less natural runoff or increased water consumption) as the dominant driver of changes in net water availability in most downstream areas. Moreover, an increased number of people will be living in areas dependent on upstream originating water in 2050. International water treaties and management will therefore have an increasingly crucial role in these hot spot regions to ensure fair management of transboundary water resources.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Joseph H. A. Guillaume
- Water and Development Research GroupAalto UniversityEspooFinland
- The Fenner School of Environment & SocietyThe Australian National UniversityCanberraAustralian Capital TerritoryAustralia
| | - Yoshihide Wada
- International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria
- Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of GeosciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - Ted Veldkamp
- International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Vili Virkki
- Water and Development Research GroupAalto UniversityEspooFinland
| | - Matti Kummu
- Water and Development Research GroupAalto UniversityEspooFinland
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