The multi-institutional myeloma group clinico-genomic risk stratification system: A blinded validation

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Background: Several clinical and molecular prognostic factors (e.g, International Staging System [ISS] stage, plasma cell labeling index, genomic models) exist for multiple myeloma (MM). We hypothesized that exploiting gene signatures representative of oncogenic pathway deregulation (i.e., Ras, Myc, etc.), would improve MM prognostication and also aid with the identification of novel therapeutic targets. Methods: Using a discovery cohort (n=47) of patients with MM and corresponding gene expression data, we built upon current molecular risk-stratification and devised a Bayesian genomic (“metagene”) model for prognosis. We validated that model in an independent patient cohort (n=207). Finally, we incorporated ISS staging and clinical variables to construct a combined Clinico-Genomic Risk Stratification System. We further validated the combined model in a separate cohort (n=72), in a blinded manner. Results: Using gene signatures predictive of oncogenic pathway activation in the discovery cohort, we identified specific patterns (metagenes) of signaling pathway activation with prognostic relevance. In an independent validation cohort, this metagene-based model accurately predicted event free survival (EFS) independently of ISS (multivariate hazard ratio [HR] 3.4 for ISS stage, and 5.4 for the metagene model, p=0.002). Using multivariate risk modeling, we incorporated ISS staging and the metagene model into a Clinico-Genomic System and successfully stratified the validation cohort into three groups (low, intermediate, and high risk) with markedly different EFS (HR 4.2 for intermediate risk and 14.0 for high risk vs. the low risk cohort, p<0.0001). In an additional blinded validation, the Clinico-Genomic System again accurately predicted median overall survival (68.7 [low risk] vs 24.7 [intermediate risk] vs 18.7 months [high risk], p<0.0001); more accurately than either ISS or other reported genomic models. Conclusions: A combined Clinico-Genomic Risk Stratification System, building on patterns of oncogenic pathway activation and ISS staging system, improves upon current prognostic models in MM and identifies novel pathway targets for future therapeutic consideration.

No significant financial relationships to disclose.