Spreading processes with mutations over multilayer networks

A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not consider the role of mutations and heterogeneity in the type of contact events. However, pathogens have the capacity to mutate in response to changing environments, especially caused by the increase in population immunity to existing strains, and the emergence of new pathogen strains poses a continued threat to public health. Further, in the light of differing transmission risks in different congregate settings (e.g., schools and offices), different mitigation strategies may need to be adopted to control the spread of infection. We analyze a multilayer multistrain model by simultaneously accounting for i) pathways for mutations in the pathogen leading to the emergence of new pathogen strains, and ii) differing transmission risks in different settings, modeled as network layers. Assuming complete cross-immunity among strains, namely, recovery from any infection prevents infection with any other (an assumption that will need to be relaxed to deal with COVID-19 or influenza), we derive the key epidemiological parameters for the multilayer multistrain framework. We demonstrate that reductions to existing models that discount heterogeneity in either the strain or the network layers may lead to incorrect predictions. Our results highlight that the impact of imposing/lifting mitigation measures concerning different contact network layers (e.g., school closures or work-from-home policies) should be evaluated in connection with their effect on the likelihood of the emergence of new strains.

Phylogeny-Aware Analysis of Metagenome Community Ecology Based on Matched Reference Genomes while Bypassing Taxonomy

We introduce the operational genomic unit (OGU) method, a metagenome analysis strategy that directly exploits sequence alignment hits to individual reference genomes as the minimum unit for assessing the diversity of microbial communities and their relevance to environmental factors. This approach is independent of taxonomic classification, granting the possibility of maximal resolution of community composition, and organizes features into an accurate hierarchy using a phylogenomic tree. The outputs are suitable for contemporary analytical protocols for community ecology, differential abundance, and supervised learning while supporting phylogenetic methods, such as UniFrac and phylofactorization, that are seldom applied to shotgun metagenomics despite being prevalent in 16S rRNA gene amplicon studies. As demonstrated in two real-world case studies, the OGU method produces biologically meaningful patterns from microbiome data sets. Such patterns further remain detectable at very low metagenomic sequencing depths. Compared with taxonomic unit-based analyses implemented in currently adopted metagenomics tools, and the analysis of 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequence variants, this method shows superiority in informing biologically relevant insights, including stronger correlation with body environment and host sex on the Human Microbiome Project data set and more accurate prediction of human age by the gut microbiomes of Finnish individuals included in the FINRISK 2002 cohort. We provide Woltka, a bioinformatics tool to implement this method, with full integration with the QIIME 2 package and the Qiita web platform, to facilitate adoption of the OGU method in future metagenomics studies. IMPORTANCE Shotgun metagenomics is a powerful, yet computationally challenging, technique compared to 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing for decoding the composition and structure of microbial communities. Current analyses of metagenomic data are primarily based on taxonomic classification, which is limited in feature resolution. To solve these challenges, we introduce operational genomic units (OGUs), which are the individual reference genomes derived from sequence alignment results, without further assigning them taxonomy. The OGU method advances current read-based metagenomics in two dimensions: (i) providing maximal resolution of community composition and (ii) permitting use of phylogeny-aware tools. Our analysis of real-world data sets shows that it is advantageous over currently adopted metagenomic analysis methods and the finest-grained 16S rRNA analysis methods in predicting biological traits. We thus propose the adoption of OGUs as an effective practice in metagenomic studies.

Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) Reveals Composite Patterns and Resolves Visualization Artifacts in Microbiome Data

Microbiome data are sparse and high dimensional, so effective visualization of these data requires dimensionality reduction. To date, the most commonly used method for dimensionality reduction in the microbiome is calculation of between-sample microbial differences (beta diversity), followed by principal-coordinate analysis (PCoA). Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) is an alternative method that can reduce the dimensionality of beta diversity distance matrices. Here, we demonstrate the benefits and limitations of using UMAP for dimensionality reduction on microbiome data. Using real data, we demonstrate that UMAP can improve the representation of clusters, especially when the clusters are composed of multiple subgroups. Additionally, we show that UMAP provides improved correlation of biological variation along a gradient with a reduced number of coordinates of the resulting embedding. Finally, we provide parameter recommendations that emphasize the preservation of global geometry. We therefore conclude that UMAP should be routinely used as a complementary visualization method for microbiome beta diversity studies. IMPORTANCE UMAP provides an additional method to visualize microbiome data. The method is extensible to any beta diversity metric used with PCoA, and our results demonstrate that UMAP can indeed improve visualization quality and correspondence with biological and technical variables of interest. The software to perform this analysis is available under an open-source license and can be obtained at https://github.com/knightlab-analyses/umap-microbiome-benchmarking; additionally, we have provided a QIIME 2 plugin for UMAP at https://github.com/biocore/q2-umap.