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Weiss A, Zapardiel-Gonzalo J, Voss F, Jolink M, Stock J, Haupt F, Kick K, Welzhofer T, Heublein A, Winkler C, Achenbach P, Ziegler AG, Bonifacio E. Progression likelihood score identifies substages of presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in childhood public health screening. Diabetologia 2022; 65:2121-2131. [PMID: 36028774 PMCID: PMC9630406 DOI: 10.1007/s00125-022-05780-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2022] [Accepted: 07/07/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS The aim of this study was to develop strategies that identify children from the general population who have late-stage presymptomatic type 1 diabetes and may, therefore, benefit from immune intervention. METHODS We tested children from Bavaria, Germany, aged 1.75-10 years, enrolled in the Fr1da public health screening programme for islet autoantibodies (n=154,462). OGTT and HbA1c were assessed in children with multiple islet autoantibodies for diagnosis of presymptomatic stage 1 (normoglycaemia) or stage 2 (dysglycaemia) type 1 diabetes. Cox proportional hazards and penalised logistic regression of autoantibody, genetic, metabolic and demographic information were used to develop a progression likelihood score to identify children with stage 1 type 1 diabetes who progressed to stage 3 (clinical) type 1 diabetes within 2 years. RESULTS Of 447 children with multiple islet autoantibodies, 364 (81.4%) were staged. Undiagnosed stage 3 type 1 diabetes, presymptomatic stage 2, and stage 1 type 1 diabetes were detected in 41 (0.027% of screened children), 30 (0.019%) and 293 (0.19%) children, respectively. The 2 year risk for progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes was 48% (95% CI 34, 58) in children with stage 2 type 1 diabetes (annualised risk, 28%). HbA1c, islet antigen-2 autoantibody positivity and titre, and the 90 min OGTT value were predictors of progression in children with stage 1 type 1 diabetes. The derived progression likelihood score identified substages corresponding to ≤90th centile (stage 1a, n=258) and >90th centile (stage 1b, n=29; 0.019%) of stage 1 children with a 4.1% (95% CI 1.4, 6.7) and 46% (95% CI 21, 63) 2 year risk of progressing to stage 3 type 1 diabetes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION Public health screening for islet autoantibodies found 0.027% of children to have undiagnosed clinical type 1 diabetes and 0.038% to have undiagnosed presymptomatic stage 2 or stage 1b type 1 diabetes, with 50% risk to develop clinical type 1 diabetes within 2 years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Weiss
- Institute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Munich, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munich, Germany
| | - Jose Zapardiel-Gonzalo
- Institute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Munich, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munich, Germany
| | - Franziska Voss
- Institute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Munich, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich, Germany
| | - Manja Jolink
- Institute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Munich, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich, Germany
| | - Joanna Stock
- Institute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Munich, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich, Germany
| | - Florian Haupt
- Institute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Munich, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munich, Germany
- Forschergruppe Diabetes e.V. at Helmholtz Zentrum München, Munich, Germany
| | - Kerstin Kick
- Technical University Munich, School of Medicine, Forschergruppe Diabetes at Klinikum rechts der Isar, Munich, Germany
| | - Tiziana Welzhofer
- Technical University Munich, School of Medicine, Forschergruppe Diabetes at Klinikum rechts der Isar, Munich, Germany
| | - Anja Heublein
- Institute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Munich, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich, Germany
| | - Christiane Winkler
- Institute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Munich, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munich, Germany
- Forschergruppe Diabetes e.V. at Helmholtz Zentrum München, Munich, Germany
| | - Peter Achenbach
- Institute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Munich, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munich, Germany
- Forschergruppe Diabetes e.V. at Helmholtz Zentrum München, Munich, Germany
- Technical University Munich, School of Medicine, Forschergruppe Diabetes at Klinikum rechts der Isar, Munich, Germany
| | - Anette-Gabriele Ziegler
- Institute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Munich, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich, Germany.
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munich, Germany.
- Forschergruppe Diabetes e.V. at Helmholtz Zentrum München, Munich, Germany.
- Technical University Munich, School of Medicine, Forschergruppe Diabetes at Klinikum rechts der Isar, Munich, Germany.
| | - Ezio Bonifacio
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munich, Germany
- Center for Regenerative Therapies Dresden, Faculty of Medicine, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
- Paul Langerhans Institute Dresden of Helmholtz Centre Munich at University Clinic Carl Gustav Carus of TU Dresden, Faculty of Medicine, Dresden, Germany
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