The importance of interpreting machine learning models for blood glucose prediction in diabetes: an analysis using SHAP

Machine learning has become a popular tool for learning models of complex dynamics from biomedical data. In Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) management, these models are increasingly been integrated in decision support systems (DSS) to forecast glucose levels and provide preventive therapeutic suggestions, like corrective insulin boluses (CIB), accordingly. Typically, models are chosen based on their prediction accuracy. However, since patient safety is a concern in this application, the algorithm should also be physiologically sound and its outcome should be explainable. This paper aims to discuss the importance of using tools to interpret the output of black-box models in T1D management by presenting a case-of-study on the selection of the best prediction algorithm to integrate in a DSS for CIB suggestion. By retrospectively "replaying" real patient data, we show that two long-short term memory neural networks (LSTM) (named p-LSTM and np-LSTM) with similar prediction accuracy could lead to different therapeutic decisions. An analysis with SHAP-a tool for explaining black-box models' output-unambiguously shows that only p-LSTM learnt the physiological relationship between inputs and glucose prediction, and should therefore be preferred. This is verified by showing that, when embedded in the DSS, only p-LSTM can improve patients' glycemic control.

Skeletal muscle overexpression of sAnk1.5 in transgenic mice does not predispose to type 2 diabetes

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and cis-expression quantitative trait locus (cis-eQTL) analyses indicated an association of the rs508419 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) with type 2 diabetes (T2D). rs508419 is localized in the muscle-specific internal promoter (P2) of the ANK1 gene, which drives the expression of the sAnk1.5 isoform. Functional studies showed that the rs508419 C/C variant results in increased transcriptional activity of the P2 promoter, leading to higher levels of sAnk1.5 mRNA and protein in skeletal muscle biopsies of individuals carrying the C/C genotype. To investigate whether sAnk1.5 overexpression in skeletal muscle might predispose to T2D development, we generated transgenic mice (TgsAnk1.5/+) in which the sAnk1.5 coding sequence was selectively overexpressed in skeletal muscle tissue. TgsAnk1.5/+ mice expressed up to 50% as much sAnk1.5 protein as wild-type (WT) muscles, mirroring the difference reported between individuals with the C/C or T/T genotype at rs508419. However, fasting glucose levels, glucose tolerance, insulin levels and insulin response in TgsAnk1.5/+ mice did not differ from those of age-matched WT mice monitored over a 12-month period. Even when fed a high-fat diet, TgsAnk1.5/+ mice only presented increased caloric intake, but glucose disposal, insulin tolerance and weight gain were comparable to those of WT mice fed a similar diet. Altogether, these data indicate that sAnk1.5 overexpression in skeletal muscle does not predispose mice to T2D susceptibility.