Evaluation of the Nallasamy formula: a stacking ensemble machine learning method for refraction prediction in cataract surgery

AIMS

To develop a new intraocular lens power selection method with improved accuracy for general cataract patients receiving Alcon SN60WF lenses.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A total of 5016 patients (6893 eyes) who underwent cataract surgery at University of Michigan's Kellogg Eye Center and received the Alcon SN60WF lens were included in the study. A machine learning-based method was developed using a training dataset of 4013 patients (5890 eyes), and evaluated on a testing dataset of 1003 patients (1003 eyes). The performance of our method was compared with that of Barrett Universal II, Emmetropia Verifying Optical (EVO), Haigis, Hoffer Q, Holladay 1, PearlDGS and SRK/T.

RESULTS

Mean absolute error (MAE) of the Nallasamy formula in the testing dataset was 0.312 Dioptres and the median absolute error (MedAE) was 0.242 D. Performance of existing methods were as follows: Barrett Universal II MAE=0.328 D, MedAE=0.256 D; EVO MAE=0.322 D, MedAE=0.251 D; Haigis MAE=0.363 D, MedAE=0.289 D; Hoffer Q MAE=0.404 D, MedAE=0.331 D; Holladay 1 MAE=0.371 D, MedAE=0.298 D; PearlDGS MAE=0.329 D, MedAE=0.258 D; SRK/T MAE=0.376 D, MedAE=0.300 D. The Nallasamy formula performed significantly better than seven existing methods based on the paired Wilcoxon test with Bonferroni correction (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The Nallasamy formula (available at https://lenscalc.com/) outperformed the seven other formulas studied on overall MAE, MedAE, and percentage of eyes within 0.5 D of prediction. Clinical significance may be primarily at the population level.

Risk factors for structural and functional progression of primary open-angle glaucoma in an African ancestry cohort

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To investigate the rates of structural and functional progression of primary open-angle glaucoma in an African ancestry cohort and identify risk factors for progression.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 1424 eyes from glaucoma cases in the Primary Open-Angle African American Glaucoma Genetics cohort, with ≥2 visits for retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness and mean deviation (MD) measurements over ≥6-month follow-up. The rates of structural progression (change in RNFL thickness/year) and functional progression (change in MD/year) were calculated from linear mixed effects models, accounting for intereye correlation and longitudinal correlation. Eyes were categorised as slow, moderate or fast progressors. Risk factors for progression rates were assessed using univariable and multivariable regression models.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile) rates of progression were -1.60 (-2.05 to -1.15) µm/year for RNFL thickness and -0.40 (-0.44 to -0.34) decibels/year for MD. Eyes were categorised as slow (structural: 19%, functional: 88%), moderate (structural: 54%, functional: 11%) and fast (structural: 27%, functional: 1%) progressors. In multivariable analysis, faster RNFL progression was independently associated with thicker baseline RNFL (p<0.0001), lower baseline MD (p=0.003) and beta peripapillary atrophy (p=0.03). Faster MD progression was independently associated with higher baseline MD (p<0.0001), larger cup-to-disc ratios (p=0.02) and lower body mass index (p=0.0004).

CONCLUSION

The median rates of structural and functional progression in this African ancestry cohort were faster than the rates reported from previously published studies in other ethnic groups. Higher baseline RNFL thickness and MD values were associated with faster progression rates. Results highlight the importance of monitoring structural and functional glaucoma progression to provide timely treatment in early disease.

Prevalence and factors associated with optic disc grey crescent in the Primary Open-Angle African Ancestry Glaucoma Genetics (POAAGG) Study

Aim

To investigate the prevalence and factors associated with optic disc grey crescent (GC) in African Americans with glaucoma.

Methods

Stereo optic disc image features from subjects with glaucoma in the Primary Open-Angle African Ancestry Glaucoma Genetics Study were evaluated independently by non-physician graders and discrepancies adjudicated by an ophthalmologist. Risk factors for GC were evaluated by logistic regression models with intereye correlation accounted for by generalised estimating equations. Adjusted ORs (aORs) were generated.

Results

GC was present in 227 (15%) of 1491 glaucoma cases, with 57 (3.82%) bilateral and 170 (11.4%) unilateral. In multivariable analysis, factors associated with GC were younger age (aOR 1.27, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.43 for every decade younger in age, p=0.001), diabetes (aOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.96, p=0.01), optic disc tilt (aOR 1.84, 95% CI 1.36 to 2.48, p<0.0001), a sloping retinal region adjacent to the outer disc margin (aOR 2.37, 95% CI 1.74 to 3.32, p<0.0001) and beta peripapillary atrophy (aOR 2.32, 95% CI 1.60 to 3.37, p<0.0001). Subjects with GC had a lower mean (SD) value of the ancestral component q0 than those without GC (0.22 (0.15) vs 0.27 (0.20), p=0.001), consistent with higher degrees of African ancestry.

Conclusions

More than 1 in 10 glaucoma cases with African ancestry have GC, occurring more frequently in younger subjects, higher degrees of African ancestry and diabetes. GC was associated with several ocular features, including optic disc tilt and beta peripapillary atrophy. These associations should be considered when evaluating black patients with primary open-angle glaucoma.