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Welch H, Savoca MS, Brodie S, Jacox MG, Muhling BA, Clay TA, Cimino MA, Benson SR, Block BA, Conners MG, Costa DP, Jordan FD, Leising AW, Mikles CS, Palacios DM, Shaffer SA, Thorne LH, Watson JT, Holser RR, Dewitt L, Bograd SJ, Hazen EL. Impacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable. Nat Commun 2023; 14:5188. [PMID: 37669922 PMCID: PMC10480173 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40849-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2023] [Accepted: 08/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Marine heatwaves cause widespread environmental, biological, and socio-economic impacts, placing them at the forefront of 21st-century management challenges. However, heatwaves vary in intensity and evolution, and a paucity of information on how this variability impacts marine species limits our ability to proactively manage for these extreme events. Here, we model the effects of four recent heatwaves (2014, 2015, 2019, 2020) in the Northeastern Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predator species of ecological, cultural, and commercial importance. Predicted responses were highly variable across species and heatwaves, ranging from near total loss of habitat to a two-fold increase. Heatwaves rapidly altered political bio-geographies, with up to 10% of predicted habitat across all species shifting jurisdictions during individual heatwaves. The variability in predicted responses across species and heatwaves portends the need for novel management solutions that can rapidly respond to extreme climate events. As proof-of-concept, we developed an operational dynamic ocean management tool that predicts predator distributions and responses to extreme conditions in near real-time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather Welch
- NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, USA.
- Institute of Marine Science, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
| | - Matthew S Savoca
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA
| | - Stephanie Brodie
- NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, USA
- Institute of Marine Science, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
| | - Michael G Jacox
- NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, USA
- Institute of Marine Science, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
- NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Barbara A Muhling
- Institute of Marine Science, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
- NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Fisheries Resources Division, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Thomas A Clay
- NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, USA
- Institute of Marine Science, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
- People and Nature, Environmental Defense Fund, Monterey, CA, USA
| | - Megan A Cimino
- NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, USA
- Institute of Marine Science, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
| | - Scott R Benson
- NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Moss Landing, CA, USA
- Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, San Jose State University, Moss Landing, CA, USA
| | - Barbara A Block
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA
| | - Melinda G Conners
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA
| | - Daniel P Costa
- Institute of Marine Science, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
| | - Fredrick D Jordan
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA
| | - Andrew W Leising
- NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, USA
| | - Chloe S Mikles
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA
| | - Daniel M Palacios
- Marine Mammal Institute, Oregon State University, Newport, OR, USA
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University, Newport, OR, USA
| | - Scott A Shaffer
- Department of Biological Sciences, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA
| | - Lesley H Thorne
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA
| | - Jordan T Watson
- NOAA, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Auke Bay Laboratory, Juneau, AK, USA
- Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System, University of Hawai'i Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
| | - Rachel R Holser
- Institute of Marine Science, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
| | - Lynn Dewitt
- NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, USA
| | - Steven J Bograd
- NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, USA
- Institute of Marine Science, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
| | - Elliott L Hazen
- NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, USA
- Institute of Marine Science, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA
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