Quantifying the Human Health Benefits of Using Satellite Information to Detect Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms and Manage Recreational Advisories in U.S. Lakes

Significant recent advances in satellite remote sensing allow environmental managers to detect and monitor cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB), and these capabilities are being used more frequently in water quality management. A quantitative estimate of the socioeconomic benefits generated from these new capabilities, known as an impact assessment, was missing from the growing literature on cyanoHABs and remote sensing. In this paper, we present an impact assessment framework to characterize the socioeconomic benefits of satellite remote sensing for detecting cyanoHABs and managing recreational advisories at freshwater lakes. We then apply this framework to estimate the socioeconomic benefits of satellite data that were used to manage a 2017 cyanoHAB event in Utah Lake. CyanoHAB events on Utah Lake can pose health risks to people who interact with the blooms through recreation. We find that the availability of satellite data yielded socioeconomic benefits by improving human health outcomes valued at approximately $370,000, though a sensitivity analysis reveals that this central estimate can vary significantly ($55,000-$1,057,000 in benefits) as a result of different assumptions regarding the time delay in posting a recreational advisory, the number of people exposed to the cyanoHAB, the number of people who experience gastrointestinal symptoms, and the cost per case of illness.

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986-2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust-attributable all-cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust-attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate-driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34-47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986-2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national-scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust-related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature-related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.

Emergency Department Visits and Ambient Temperature: Evaluating the Connection and Projecting Future Outcomes

The U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program has identified climate change as a growing public health threat. We investigated the potential effects of changes in ambient daily maximum temperature on hyperthermia and cardiovascular emergency department (ED) visits using records for patients age 64 and younger from a private insurance database for the May-September period for 2005-2012. We found a strong positive relationship between daily maximum temperatures and ED visits for hyperthermia but not for cardiovascular conditions. Using the fitted relationship from 136 metropolitan areas, we calculated the number and rate of hyperthermia ED visits for climates representative of year 1995 (baseline period), as well as years 2050 and 2090 (future periods), for two climate change scenarios based on outcomes from five global climate models. Without considering potential adaptation or population growth and movement, we calculate that climate change alone will result in an additional 21,000-28,000 hyperthermia ED visits for May to September, with associated treatment costs between $6 million and $52 million (2015 U.S. dollars) by 2050; this increases to approximately 28,000-65,000 additional hyperthermia ED visits with treatment costs between $9 million and $118 million (2015 U.S. dollars) by 2090. The range in projected additional hyperthermia visits reflects the difference between alternative climate scenarios, and the additional range in valuation reflects different assumptions about per-case valuation.