Generating a Precision Endoxifen Prediction Algorithm to Advance Personalized Tamoxifen Treatment in Patients with Breast Cancer

Tamoxifen is an endocrine treatment for hormone receptor positive breast cancer. The effectiveness of tamoxifen may be compromised in patients with metabolic resistance, who have insufficient metabolic generation of the active metabolites endoxifen and 4-hydroxy-tamoxifen. This has been challenging to validate due to the lack of measured metabolite concentrations in tamoxifen clinical trials. CYP2D6 activity is the primary determinant of endoxifen concentration. Inconclusive results from studies investigating whether CYP2D6 genotype is associated with tamoxifen efficacy may be due to the imprecision in using CYP2D6 genotype as a surrogate of endoxifen concentration without incorporating the influence of other genetic and clinical variables. This review summarizes the evidence that active metabolite concentrations determine tamoxifen efficacy. We then introduce a novel approach to validate this relationship by generating a precision endoxifen prediction algorithm and comprehensively review the factors that must be incorporated into the algorithm, including genetics of CYP2D6 and other pharmacogenes. A precision endoxifen algorithm could be used to validate metabolic resistance in existing tamoxifen clinical trial cohorts and could then be used to select personalized tamoxifen doses to ensure all patients achieve adequate endoxifen concentrations and maximum benefit from tamoxifen treatment.

Low Z-4OHtam concentrations are associated with adverse clinical outcome among early stage premenopausal breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant tamoxifen

Low steady-state levels of active tamoxifen metabolites have been associated with inferior treatment outcomes. In this retrospective analysis of 406 estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer (BC) patients receiving adjuvant tamoxifen as initial treatment, we have associated our previously reported thresholds for the two active metabolites, Z-endoxifen and Z-4-hydroxy-tamoxifen (Z-4OHtam), with treatment outcomes in an independent cohort of BC patients. Among all patients, metabolite levels did not affect survival. However, in the premenopausal subgroup receiving tamoxifen alone (n = 191) we confirmed an inferior BC -specific survival in patients with the previously described serum concentration threshold of Z-4OHtam ≤ 3.26 nm (HR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.02-5.48, P = 0.039). The 'dose-response' survival trend in patients categorized to ordinal concentration cut-points of Z-4OHtamoxifen (≤ 3.26, 3.27-8.13, > 8.13 nm) was also replicated (P-trend log-rank = 0.048). Z-endoxifen was not associated with outcome. This is the first study to confirm the association between a published active tamoxifen metabolite threshold and BC outcome in an independent patient cohort. Premenopausal patients receiving 5-year of tamoxifen alone may benefit from therapeutic drug monitoring to ensure tamoxifen effectiveness.

Serum concentrations of active tamoxifen metabolites predict long-term survival in adjuvantly treated breast cancer patients

Background

Controversies exist as to whether the genetic polymorphisms of the enzymes responsible for the metabolism of tamoxifen can predict breast cancer outcome in patients using adjuvant tamoxifen. Direct measurement of concentrations of active tamoxifen metabolites in serum may be a more biological plausible and robust approach. We have investigated the association between CYP2D6 genotypes, serum concentrations of active tamoxifen metabolites, and long-term outcome in tamoxifen treated breast cancer patients.

Methods

From an original observational study comprising 817 breast cancer patients, 99 women with operable breast cancer were retrospectively included in the present study. This cohort of patients were adjuvantly treated with tamoxifen, had provided serum samples suitable for measuring tamoxifen metabolites, and were relapse-free at 3 years after the primary treatment commenced. The median follow-up time from this entry point to breast cancer death was 13.9 years. Patients were CYP2D6 genotyped and grouped into four CYP2D6 phenotype groups (Ultra rapid, extensive, intermediate, and poor metabolizers). Tamoxifen and nine metabolites were quantified in serum (n = 86) and compared with CYP2D6 phenotype groups and outcome.

Results

Breast cancer patients with low concentrations of Z-4-hydroxy-tamoxifen (Z-4OHtam; ≤ 3.26 nM) had a breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) of 60% compared to 84% in patients with Z-4OHtam concentrations > 3.26 nM (p = 0.020, log-rank hazard ratio (HR) = 3.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.14–11.07). For patients with Z-4-hydroxy-N-desmethyl-tamoxifen (Z-endoxifen) levels ≤ 9.00 nM BCSS was 57% compared to 84% for patients with concentrations > 9.00 nM (p = 0.029, HR = 3.73, 95% CI = 1.05–13.22). Low concentrations of Z-4OHtam and Z-endoxifen were associated with poorer survival also after adjusting for clinically relevant variables (HR = 4.27, 95% CI = 1.35–13.58, and HR = 3.70, 95% CI = 1.03–13.25, respectively). Overall survival analysis showed similar survival differences for both active metabolites. The Antiestrogen Activity Score showed comparable effects, but did not improve the prognostic information.

Conclusions

Patients with Z-4OHtam and Z-endoxifen concentrations lower than 3.26 nM or 9.00 nM, respectively, showed an adverse outcome. Our results suggest that direct measurement of active tamoxifen metabolite concentrations could be of clinical value. Validation in larger study cohorts is warranted.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13058-017-0916-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.