Panarchy theory for convergence

Coping with surprise and uncertainty resulting from the emergence of undesired and unexpected novelty or the sudden reorganization of systems at multiple spatiotemporal scales requires both a scientific process that can incorporate diverse expertise and viewpoints, and a scientific framework that can account for the structure and dynamics of interacting social-ecological systems (SES) and the inherent uncertainty of what might emerge in the future. We argue that combining a convergence scientific process with a panarchy framework provides a pathway for improving our understanding of, and response to, emergence. Emergent phenomena are often unexpected (e.g., pandemics, regime shifts) and can be highly disruptive, so can pose a significant challenge to the development of sustainable and resilient SES. Convergence science is a new approach promoted by the U.S. National Science Foundation for tackling complex problems confronting humanity through the integration of multiple perspectives, expertise, methods, tools, and analytical approaches. Panarchy theory is a framework useful for studying emergence, because it characterizes complex systems of people and nature as dynamically organized and structured within and across scales of space and time. It accounts for the fundamental tenets of complex systems and explicitly grapples with emergence, including the emergence of novelty, and the emergent property of social-ecological resilience. We provide an overview of panarchy, convergence science, and emergence. We discuss the significant data and methodological challenges of using panarchy in a convergence approach to address emergent phenomena, as well as state-of-the-art methods for overcoming them. We present two examples that would benefit from such an approach: climate change and its impacts on social-ecological systems, and the relationships between infectious disease and social-ecological systems.

Principles of convergence in nature and society and their application: from nanoscale, digits, and logic steps to global progress

Knowledge, technology, and society as well as natural systems are increasingly coherent and complex, and new systems are continuously formed at their interfaces. Convergence is a problem-solving strategy to holistically understand, create, and transform a system for reaching a common goal, such as advancing an emerging technology in society. The systems may be either in natural, scientific, technological, economic, or societal settings. Convergence offers a unifying strategy applicable to all systems that can be modeled as evolving neural-like networks. The paper presents an overview of the convergence science including underlying theories, principles, and methods and illustrates its implementation in key areas of application. The convergence approach begins with deep integration of previously separated fields, communities, and modes of thinking, to form and improve a new system, from where solutions divergence to previously unattainable applications and outcomes. The worldwide science and technology (S&T) landscape is changing at the beginning of the twenty-first century because of convergence. First, there is the affirmation of three transdisciplinary general-purpose technologies-nanotechnology, digital technology, and artificial intelligence (AI). A second main characteristics is the deep integration of five foundational science and technology fields (NBICA: nanoscale, modern biology, information, cognition, and artificial intelligence) from their basic elements-atoms, genes, bits, neurons, and logic steps and their collective action-to address global challenges and opportunities. The affirmation of nanotechnology at the confluence of disciplines toward systematic control of matter at the nanoscale has been an enabling inspiration and foundation for other S&T fields, emerging industries, and convergence solutions in society. Several future opportunities for implementation of convergence principles are the global S&T system, realizing sustainable society, advancing human capabilities, and conflict resolution.