COVID-19 forecasting and intervention planning using gated recurrent unit and evolutionary algorithm

The rapid spread of COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has had and continues to pose a significant threat to global health. We propose a predictive model based on the gated recurrent unit (GRU) that investigates the influence of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the progression of COVID-19. The proposed model is validated by case studies for multiple states in the United States. It should be noted that the proposed model can be generalized to other regions of interest. The results show that the predictive model can achieve accurate forecasts across the US. The forecast is then utilized to identify the optimal mitigation policies. The goal is to identify the best stringency level for each policy that can minimize the total number of new COVID-19 cases while minimizing the mitigation costs. A meta-heuristics method, named multi-population evolutionary algorithm with differential evolution (MPEA-DE), has been developed to identify optimal mitigation strategies that minimize COVID-19 infection cases while reducing economic and other negative implications. We compared the optimal mitigation strategies identified by the MPEA-DE model with three baseline search strategies. The results show that MPEA-DE performs better than other baseline models based on prescription dominance.

Optimization of state-of-the-art fuzzy-metaheuristic ANFIS-based machine learning models for flood susceptibility prediction mapping in the Middle Ganga Plain, India

This study is an attempt to quantitatively test and compare novel advanced-machine learning algorithms in terms of their performance in achieving the goal of predicting flood susceptible areas in a low altitudinal range, sub-tropical floodplain environmental setting, like that prevailing in the Middle Ganga Plain (MGP), India. This part of the Ganga floodplain region, which under the influence of undergoing active tectonic regime related subsidence, is the hotbed of annual flood disaster. This makes the region one of the best natural laboratories to test the flood susceptibility models for establishing a universalization of such models in low relief highly flood prone areas. Based on highly sophisticated flood inventory archived for this region, and 12 flood conditioning factors viz. annual rainfall, soil type, stream density, distance from stream, distance from road, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), altitude, slope aspect, slope, curvature, land use/land cover, and geomorphology, an advanced novel hybrid model Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and three metaheuristic models-based ensembles with ANFIS namely ANFIS-GA (Genetic Algorithm), ANFIS-DE (Differential Evolution), and ANFIS-PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization), have been applied for zonation of the flood susceptible areas. The flood inventory dataset, prepared by collected flood samples, were apportioned into 70:30 classes to prepare training and validation datasets. One independent validation method, the Area-Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) Curve, and other 11 cut-off-dependent model evaluation metrices have helped to conclude that the ANIFS-GA has outperformed other three models with highest success rate AUC = 0.922 and prediction rate AUC = 0.924. The accuracy was also found to be highest for ANFIS-GA during training (0.886) & validation (0.883). Better performance of ANIFS-GA than the individual models as well as some ensemble models suggests and warrants further study in this topoclimatic environment using other classes of susceptibility models. This will further help establishing a benchmark model with capability of highest accuracy and sensitivity performance in the similar topographic and climatic setting taking assumption of the quality of input parameters as constant.

Modelling energy performance using a new hybrid DE/MARS-based approach for fossil-fuel thermal power stations

Despite their environmental impact, fossil-fuel power plants are still commonly used due to their high capacity and relatively low cost compared to renewable energy sources. The aim of this paper is to assess the performance of such energy systems as a key element within a fossil-fuel energy supply network. The methodology relies on fossil-fuel power plant modelling to define an optimal energy management level. However, it can be difficult to model the energy management of thermal power stations (TPS). Therefore, this paper shows an energy efficiency model found on a new hybrid algorithm that is a combination of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and differential evolution (DE) to estimate net annual electricity generation (NAEG) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions (CDE) from economic and performance variables in thermal power plants. This technique requires the DE optimisation of the MARS hyperparameters during the development of the training process. In addition to successfully forecast net annual electricity generation (NAEG) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions (CDE) (coefficients of determination with a value of 0.9803 and 0.9895, respectively), the mathematical model used in this work can determine the importance of each economic and energy parameter to characterize the behaviour of thermal power stations.

Extraction of fetal ECG signal by an improved method using extended Kalman smoother framework from single channel abdominal ECG signal

This paper proposes a five-stage based methodology to extract the fetal electrocardiogram (FECG) from the single channel abdominal ECG using differential evolution (DE) algorithm, extended Kalman smoother (EKS) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) framework. The heart rate of the fetus can easily be detected after estimation of the fetal ECG signal. The abdominal ECG signal contains fetal ECG signal, maternal ECG component, and noise. To estimate the fetal ECG signal from the abdominal ECG signal, removal of the noise and the maternal ECG component presented in it is necessary. The pre-processing stage is used to remove the noise from the abdominal ECG signal. The EKS framework is used to estimate the maternal ECG signal from the abdominal ECG signal. The optimized parameters of the maternal ECG components are required to develop the state and measurement equation of the EKS framework. These optimized maternal ECG parameters are selected by the differential evolution algorithm. The relationship between the maternal ECG signal and the available maternal ECG component in the abdominal ECG signal is nonlinear. To estimate the actual maternal ECG component present in the abdominal ECG signal and also to recognize this nonlinear relationship the ANFIS is used. Inputs to the ANFIS framework are the output of EKS and the pre-processed abdominal ECG signal. The fetal ECG signal is computed by subtracting the output of ANFIS from the pre-processed abdominal ECG signal. Non-invasive fetal ECG database and set A of 2013 physionet/computing in cardiology challenge database (PCDB) are used for validation of the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology shows a sensitivity of 94.21%, accuracy of 90.66%, and positive predictive value of 96.05% from the non-invasive fetal ECG database. The proposed methodology also shows a sensitivity of 91.47%, accuracy of 84.89%, and positive predictive value of 92.18% from the set A of PCDB.

A novel hybrid model for air quality index forecasting based on two-phase decomposition technique and modified extreme learning machine

The randomness, non-stationarity and irregularity of air quality index (AQI) series bring the difficulty of AQI forecasting. To enhance forecast accuracy, a novel hybrid forecasting model combining two-phase decomposition technique and extreme learning machine (ELM) optimized by differential evolution (DE) algorithm is developed for AQI forecasting in this paper. In phase I, the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) is utilized to decompose the AQI series into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different frequencies; in phase II, in order to further handle the high frequency IMFs which will increase the forecast difficulty, variational mode decomposition (VMD) is employed to decompose the high frequency IMFs into a number of variational modes (VMs). Then, the ELM model optimized by DE algorithm is applied to forecast all the IMFs and VMs. Finally, the forecast value of each high frequency IMF is obtained through adding up the forecast results of all corresponding VMs, and the forecast series of AQI is obtained by aggregating the forecast results of all IMFs. To verify and validate the proposed model, two daily AQI series from July 1, 2014 to June 30, 2016 collected from Beijing and Shanghai located in China are taken as the test cases to conduct the empirical study. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model based on two-phase decomposition technique is remarkably superior to all other considered models for its higher forecast accuracy.

Extended Kalman smoother with differential evolution technique for denoising of ECG signal

Electrocardiogram (ECG) signal gives a lot of information on the physiology of heart. In reality, noise from various sources interfere with the ECG signal. To get the correct information on physiology of the heart, noise cancellation of the ECG signal is required. In this paper, the effectiveness of extended Kalman smoother (EKS) with the differential evolution (DE) technique for noise cancellation of the ECG signal is investigated. DE is used as an automatic parameter selection method for the selection of ten optimized components of the ECG signal, and those are used to create the ECG signal according to the real ECG signal. These parameters are used by the EKS for the development of the state equation and also for initialization of the parameters of EKS. EKS framework is used for denoising the ECG signal from the single channel. The effectiveness of proposed noise cancellation technique has been evaluated by adding white, colored Gaussian noise and real muscle artifact noise at different SNR to some visually clean ECG signals from the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. The proposed noise cancellation technique of ECG signal shows better signal to noise ratio (SNR) improvement, lesser mean square error (MSE) and percent of distortion (PRD) compared to other well-known methods.

A novel algorithm with differential evolution and coral reef optimization for extreme learning machine training

Extreme learning machine (ELM) is a novel and fast learning method to train single layer feed-forward networks. However due to the demand for larger number of hidden neurons, the prediction speed of ELM is not fast enough. An evolutionary based ELM with differential evolution (DE) has been proposed to reduce the prediction time of original ELM. But it may still get stuck at local optima. In this paper, a novel algorithm hybridizing DE and metaheuristic coral reef optimization (CRO), which is called differential evolution coral reef optimization (DECRO), is proposed to balance the explorative power and exploitive power to reach better performance. The thought and the implement of DECRO algorithm are discussed in this article with detail. DE, CRO and DECRO are applied to ELM training respectively. Experimental results show that DECRO-ELM can reduce the prediction time of original ELM, and obtain better performance for training ELM than both DE and CRO.