Will the substitution of capital for labor increase the use of chemical fertilizer in agriculture? Analysis based on provincial panel data in China

Major changes have taken place in the agricultural factor input structure in China, which will inevitably affect fertilizer input in agriculture. However, there is no consistent conclusion about the impact of capital and labor input on chemical fertilizer input. This paper employed directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to clarify the influence of capital-labor input structure on the use of chemical fertilizer. Using inter-provincial panel data, the dynamic panel system GMM method was adopted to examine the mechanism of factor substitution elasticity in determining the impact of agricultural capital-labor input on chemical fertilizer input. The results showed that agricultural labor and capital input are positively correlated with chemical fertilizer input. In the process of capital and labor input affecting fertilizer input, the elasticity of factor substitution plays a negative moderating role. From 1996 to 2018, the trend of capital replacing labor was evident, and the increase ratio of capital input was greater than the decrease ratio of labor input. Therefore, an increase in capital input and its substitution for labor is the main driver of the increase in fertilizer input. At the same time, the elasticity of fertilizer-capital substitution declined during the period 1996-2018, thereby reinforcing the increase in fertilizer input caused by the increase in capital input. In order to reduce agricultural pollution caused by the increase in chemical fertilizer input, it is crucial to reverse the declining trend in the elasticity of fertilizer capital substitution.

Long-term trends in yield variance of temperate managed grassland

The management of climate-resilient grassland systems is important for stable livestock fodder production. In the face of climate change, maintaining productivity while minimizing yield variance of grassland systems is increasingly challenging. To achieve climate-resilient and stable productivity of grasslands, a better understanding of the climatic drivers of long-term trends in yield variance and its dependence on agronomic inputs is required. Based on the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted (UK), we report for the first time the long-term trends in yield variance of grassland (1965-2018) in plots given different fertilizer and lime applications, with contrasting productivity and plant species diversity. We implemented a statistical model that allowed yield variance to be determined independently of yield level. Environmental abiotic covariates were included in a novel criss-cross regression approach to determine climatic drivers of yield variance and its dependence on agronomic management. Our findings highlight that sufficient liming and moderate fertilization can reduce yield variance while maintaining productivity and limiting loss of plant species diversity. Plots receiving the highest rate of nitrogen fertilizer or farmyard manure had the highest yield but were also more responsive to environmental variability and had less plant species diversity. We identified the days of water stress from March to October and temperature from July to August as the two main climatic drivers, explaining approximately one-third of the observed yield variance. These drivers helped explain consistent unimodal trends in yield variance-with a peak in approximately 1995, after which variance declined. Here, for the first time, we provide a novel statistical framework and a unique long-term dataset for understanding the trends in yield variance of managed grassland. The application of the criss-cross regression approach in other long-term agro-ecological trials could help identify climatic drivers of production risk and to derive agronomic strategies for improving the climate resilience of cropping systems.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-023-00885-w.

Impacts of the components of conservation agriculture on soil organic carbon and total nitrogen storage: A global meta-analysis

Conservation agriculture (CA) can be an important strategy for improving soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN). Numerous studies have examined SOC and TN dynamics in different cropping systems. However, there is some uncertainty regarding the relative impacts of some CA practices, and it is not always clear how other agricultural management, particularly nitrogen addition, interacts with these practices to influence SOC and TN sequestration. Thus, we conducted a global meta-analysis of 752 comparisons from 97 papers to analyze the impacts of nitrogen fertilizers and CA practices (namely crop diversification, minimal soil disturbance (no-tillage) and permanent soil cover), on SOC and TN content worldwide. Overall, our study showed the most significant increase of SOC [21.39 % (CI = 15.16 to 28.64)] and TN [54.34 % (CI = 26.19 to 96.69)] stock with CA practices compared to conventional practices in the 0-15 cm soil depth. It also showed a significant increase in SOC and TN stock with all the individual components of CA compared to conventional practices in the 0-15 cm soil depth. However, the impact of CA on SOC and TN is reduced in 0-60 cm depths compared to surface soil depths due to the limited input of crop residue deeper in the soil profile. Manure and manure mixed with mineral-N led to greater SOC sequestration [20.67 % (CI = 15.23 to 27.10) and 41.67 % (CI = 31.03 to 52.79), respectively] than mineral-N alone [9.08 % (CI = 6.44 to 11.83)]. Cropping systems that included legume residue decreased the C/N ratio. This highlights that adequate mineral-N fertilizer addition may also be required in conjunction with residue retention practices to improve SOC and TN content. Overall, these results show that CA systems that include legume residue and manure mixed with mineral-N have great potential to increase SOC and TN, particularly at 0-15 cm and 0-30 cm soil depth.