Cognitive and clinical predictors of a long-term course in obsessive compulsive disorder: A machine learning approach in a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) is a disabling illness with a chronic course, yet data on long-term outcomes are scarce. This study aimed to examine the long-term course of OCD in patients treated with different approaches (drugs, psychotherapy, and psychosurgery) and to identify predictors of clinical outcome by machine learning.

METHOD

We included outpatients with OCD treated at our referral unit. Demographic and neuropsychological data were collected at baseline using standardized instruments. Clinical data were collected at baseline, 12 weeks after starting pharmacological treatment prescribed at study inclusion, and after follow-up.

RESULTS

Of the 60 outpatients included, with follow-up data available for 5-17 years (mean = 10.6 years), 40 (67.7 %) were considered non-responders to adequate treatment at the end of the study. The best machine learning model achieved a correlation of 0.63 for predicting the long-term Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) score by adding clinical response (to the first pharmacological treatment) to the baseline clinical and neuropsychological characteristics.

LIMITATIONS

Our main limitations were the sample size, modest in the context of traditional ML studies, and the sample composition, more representative of rather severe OCD cases than of patients from the general community.

CONCLUSIONS

Many patients with OCD showed persistent and disabling symptoms at the end of follow-up despite comprehensive treatment that could include medication, psychotherapy, and psychosurgery. Machine learning algorithms can predict the long-term course of OCD using clinical and cognitive information to optimize treatment options.

Physical health, primary care utilization and long-term quality of life in borderline personality disorder: A 10-year follow-up study in a Spanish sample

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to study physical health and primary care utilization in the long-term course of borderline personality disorder (BPD) and their impact on quality of life (QOL) in a Spanish clinical sample.

METHODS

This study is part of a longitudinal study following a clinical cohort with BPD. A total of 41 participants were re-evaluated at 10-year follow-up, when current medical conditions, primary care utilization, and quality of life were assessed. Comparative population data were extracted from the Catalan Health Survey ESCA.

RESULTS

68% of BPD patients reported physical health problems, and 32% informed of multiple medical illnesses at follow-up. Higher rates of musculoskeletal disorders and frequent use of general practitioner (GP) consultations were reported by BPD patients compared to the general population. Differences in physical health and use of primary care services between remitted and non-remitted BPD patients were not significant. BPD remission was independently associated with better long-term QOL. Comorbid somatic diseases worsened the long-term QOL of non-remitted BPD patients.

CONCLUSION

Chronic somatic conditions are prevalent in people with BPD and interact negatively with persistent BPD pathology, worsening their QOL in the long-term. Health care strategies in the assistance of long-lasting BPD patients are recommended.

Long-term course of developmental dysplasia of the hip: follow-up of the non-operated hips of patients undergoing unilateral rotational acetabular osteotomy for twenty-four years

PURPOSE

To follow-up the non-operated hips of patients who underwent unilateral rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO) for bilateral developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) for a minimum of 20 years to clarify (1) the timing of onset of hip osteoarthritis (OA) in DDH, and (2) factors associated with the development of OA.

METHODS

This study included 92 non-operated hips of patients who underwent unilateral RAO for bilateral DDH. We examined the timing of OA onset and total hip arthroplasty (THA) and the joint survival rate in the studied hips. Furthermore, the patients were divided into those with OA onset (progression group) and those without OA onset and compared in terms of lateral center-edge angle (LCEA), sharp angle, acetabular head index (AHI), acetabular roof obliquity (ARO), joint congruity, and the presence or absence of OA progression on the RAO side.

RESULTS

The progression group experienced OA onset 12 years after RAO and underwent THA 6 years after OA onset. The 20-year joint survival rate was 73% with the endpoint of OA onset and 81% with the endpoint of THA. The progression group had significantly smaller LCEA and AHI and larger ARO. The risk of developing OA was 8.2 times greater in patients with LCEA ≤ 7° than in those with LCEA > 7°.

CONCLUSION

The patients with OA progression group experienced OA onset at an average age of 55 years. A small LCEA (≤ 7°) was identified as a risk factor for the development of OA.

Long-term outcomes of stapes surgery

OBJECTIVE

Hearing improvement following stapes surgery is generally good; however, we sometimes encounter patients where hearing loss gradually progresses over the long term. In this study, we investigated the causes of hearing loss in these cases.

METHODS

A total of 30 ears from 23 patients, who underwent stapes surgery at Kitasato University Hospital from 2001 to 2021 and were followed up for ≥5 years, were included in the study. Changes in air conduction (AC) and bone conduction (BC) thresholds were measured, and hearing evaluation was performed by calculating the air-bone gap (ABG) at the mean of 4 frequencies. Cases with a postoperative ABG of ≤10 dB at 6 months after surgery were classified into the following groups according to their hearing changes at 5 years after surgery: Group A (no ABG increase of ≥10 dB and no AC threshold increase of ≥10 dB) and Group B (an ABG increase of ≥10 dB and an AC threshold increase of ≥10 dB). In groups A and B, we examined factors affecting long-term postoperative results. In addition, the patients who underwent reoperation were examined.

RESULTS

The AC thresholds 6 months and 5 years after surgery decreased significantly compared with those before surgery (p  <  0.01); however, the BC thresholds 6 months and 5 years after surgery did not vary significantly from those before surgery (p  >  0.05). Group A included 16 ears from 13 patients (53.3%), and Group B included 3 ears from 3 patients (10.0%). There were no significant differences in age, sex, surgical method, piston type, piston length, presence of incudostapedial joint subluxation, computed tomography findings, and preoperative ABGs between groups A and B (p  >  0.05). A total of 6 reoperations were performed in 3 ears from 3 patients, and there were 5 operations with the platinotomy hole to be closed by bone regrowth and 3 operations with the narrowed long process of the incus.

CONCLUSION

In 10.0% of the patients who underwent stapes surgery, the ABG improved 6 months after surgery; however, the AC threshold and ABG increased 5 years after surgery. Our findings suggested that piston displacement and the platinotomy hole to be closed by bone regrowth are possible causes of hearing loss in cases where hearing loss progresses in the long term after stapes surgery.

Vestibular paroxysmia: clinical characteristics and long-term course

In 2016, the Bárány Society defined new diagnostic criteria for the neurovascular compression syndrome of the eighth nerve, called “vestibular paroxysmia” (VP), differentiating between definite (dVP) and probable (pVP) forms. The aim of this study was (1) to describe clinical symptoms and laboratory findings in a well-diagnosed large patient cohort according to those criteria, and (2) to evaluate the long-term course over years in dVP. We identified 146 patients (73 dVP, 73 pVP) from our tertiary dizziness center registry. Data of structured history-taking, clinical neurological, neuro-ophthalmological/-otological examinations as well as MRI imaging were extracted for analyses. Overall, attack frequency ranged between 5 and 30 attacks per day; spinning vertigo was the most frequent type. In two-thirds of patients, attacks occurred spontaneously; in one-quarter, they were triggered by head movements. The majority (approximately 70%) reported no accompanying symptoms; in those with symptoms, mild unilateral cochlear symptoms prevailed. One-third of patients initially showed hyperventilation-induced nystagmus without specific direction, and a deviation of the subjective visual vertical between 3° and 6°. Complete loss of peripheral vestibular function was never evident. dVP and pVP significantly differed concerning the vertigo type, e.g., spinning vertigo was more frequent in dVP. Fortunately, three-quarters of dVP patients remained attack-free during follow-up (mean 4.8 years, standardized questionnaire), more than half of them even without any medication. Patients with ongoing attacks showed significantly higher attack frequency at baseline, but reported persistent frequency reduction. Overall, the long-term prognosis of VP appears favorable, not necessarily requiring ongoing treatment.

[Diverticular disease. Clinical appearance, conservative treatment, primary and secondary prophylaxis]

Diverticula of the colon are very common and usually asymptomatic but 20% of people with diverticulosis develop symptoms and sometimes also complications, such as diverticulitis with abscesses or perforation and bleeding. In the long-term stenoses or a conglomerate can occur. The treatment depends on the type of diverticular disease, on the knowledge of risk indicators and imaging with sonography or computed tomography (CT). The uncomplicated diverticular disease is treated on an outpatient and conservative basis, while complicated diverticular disease is treated on an inpatient basis and often surgically.

Seizures associated with antibodies against cell surface antigens are acute symptomatic and not indicative of epilepsy: insights from long-term data

Background

Clinicians have questioned whether any disorder involving seizures and neural antibodies should be called “(auto)immune epilepsy.” The concept of “acute symptomatic seizures” may be more applicable in cases with antibodies against neural cell surface antigens. We aimed at determining the probability of achieving seizure-freedom, the use of anti-seizure medication (ASM), and immunotherapy in patients with either constellation. As a potential pathophysiological correlate, we analyzed antibody titer courses.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study of 39 patients with seizures and neural antibodies, follow-up ≥ 3 years.

Results

Patients had surface antibodies against the N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR, n = 6), leucine-rich glioma inactivated protein 1 (LGI1, n = 11), contactin-associated protein-2 (CASPR2, n = 8), or antibodies against the intracellular antigens glutamic acid decarboxylase 65 kDa (GAD65, n = 13) or Ma2 (n = 1). Patients with surface antibodies reached first seizure-freedom (88% vs. 7%, P < 0.001) and terminal seizure-freedom (80% vs. 7%, P < 0.001) more frequently. The time to first and terminal seizure-freedom and the time to freedom from ASM were shorter in the surface antibody group (Kaplan–Meier curves: P < 0.0001 for first seizure-freedom; P < 0.0001 for terminal seizure-freedom; P = 0.0042 for terminal ASM-freedom). Maximum ASM defined daily doses were higher in the groups with intracellular antibodies. Seizure-freedom was achieved after additional immunotherapy, not always accompanied by increased ASM doses. Titers of surface antibodies but not intracellular antibodies decreased over time.

Conclusion

Seizures with surface antibodies should mostly be considered acute symptomatic and transient and not indicative of epilepsy. This has consequences for ASM prescription and social restrictions. Antibody titers correlate with clinical courses.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00415-020-10250-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

[Getting older with rheumatoid arthritis-is there a burnout of the disease?]

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory disease. Synovitis is the main pathology and can lead to a progressive destruction of the joints. It is often said that RA "burns out", implying that the inflammation decreases spontaneously in the long term, mostly severe course of RA and reaches a stage with a stable absence of joint inflammation, even without treatment. To test this concept we analyzed the published evidence. Data of historic long-term inception cohorts of patients who have never been treated with antirheumatic drugs and patients who received conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARD), show that the disease stays active with sustained radiological progression in the majority of patients. At best, the disease can show a milder course with time or a stage of absence of joint inflammation can be reached if patients responded very well to initial drug treatment. Terminating DMARD treatment in this situation bears the risk of a latent progressive joint destruction, the appearance of extra-articular manifestations and an increase in the cardiovascular risk. Hence there is no evidence for the existence of a "burnt out" RA with stable inactive disease without drug treatment in the long-term course. In a modern treatment strategy of RA following the treat-to-target principle and aiming at remission, the term "burnt out" RA should no longer be used.

Long-term course of negative symptom subdomains and relationship with outcome in patients with a psychotic disorder

BACKGROUND

The longitudinal course of the negative symptoms subdomains social amotivation (SA) and expressive deficits (ED) remains largely unknown. We investigated i) the longitudinal course of SA and ED subdomain scores, ii) whether subgroups based on the course of SA and ED subdomain scores could be identified, iii) whether baseline SA and ED subdomain scores were related to functioning and quality of life six years later and iv) the longitudinal relationship between subgroups and outcomes.

METHODS

Measurements at baseline, three and six years from 1067 patients participating in the Genetic Risk and Outcome of Psychosis (GROUP) project were used. We applied mixed models analysis, regression analysis and trajectory analyses.

RESULTS

SA and ED subdomain scores decreased over time. Within both subdomains, four subgroups were identified: for both SA and ED a steady low course (±60%), increased (±15%) and decreased course (±15%). Within SA only, a higher level decreased course (±6%) and within ED only, a course with relatively stable high ED scores (±6%) was found. Lower symptom levels at baseline were related to better functioning (SA & ED) and quality of life (SA) at six years. Overall, low SA and low ED subgroups showed better outcomes than the other subgroups.

CONCLUSION

In many patients the course of negative symptoms is unstable and related to the course of outcome. Patients who do show steady low negative symptom levels (60%) may complicate the interpretation of treatment evaluation studies, as they may average out possible effects in subgroups with fluctuating symptom levels.

Taking care of oneself by regaining control - a key to continue living four to five decades after a suicide attempt in severe depression

BACKGROUND

Depression is a strong risk factor for suicide and suicide attempt. Several studies have examined the pathway to suicide attempt, but few studies have considered aspects important for overcoming being suicidal. The aim of the present study was to examine personal strategies to continue living after a suicide attempt.

METHODS

A qualitative grounded theory approach was used. Thirteen former inpatients diagnosed with severe depression (1956-1969) participated in a follow-up 42-56 years after their last suicide attempt, which occurred between the ages of 21 and 45. They were interviewed on one occasion between June 2013 and January 2014, using semi-structured interviews.

RESULTS

The pathway to a suicide attempt was defined as 'being trapped in an overwhelming situation'. Three categories described the recovery process: 'coming under professional care', 'experiencing relief in the personal situation', and 'making a decision to continue living'. These categories emerged in a core category, labelled 'taking care of oneself by regaining control'. Overcoming being suicidal occurred regardless of recovering from depression.

CONCLUSION

In the very long-term course following a suicide attempt, the process of recovery is multi-dimensional and fluctuating, and includes appropriate treatment, connecting with others, decision making, and overcoming existential issues.

Remission from substance use disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This paper presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of available evidence on remission rates for substance use disorders (SUDs), providing weighted mean estimates of SUD remission rates. The review also explores study-level characteristics that may explain variations in remission rates across studies.

METHODS

A comprehensive search strategy identified studies published between 2000 and 2015 with follow-up periods of at least three years or reported lifetime remission outcomes for potential inclusion in the review. Remission was defined as not meeting diagnostic criteria for abuse or dependence for a minimum period of six months, as of final follow-up. A single-group summary meta-analysis was performed. Pooled estimated annual remission rates (PEARRs) were calculated. Meta-regression techniques and subgroup analyses were used to explore the association between study remission rates and key selected variables.

RESULTS

Of 8855 studies identified, 21 met the eligibility criteria. The results suggested that 35.0% to 54.4% of individuals with SUDs achieved remission, and this occurred after a mean follow-up period of 17 years. The PEARRs projected few cases of SUD remission, between 6.8% and 9.1% in any given year. Studies that reported higher remission rates had longer follow-up periods, and lower sample retention rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Results support the contention that SUDs are more likely to be "chronic" or long term disorders than acute disorders for a substantial number of individuals. However, more longitudinal research is required. Treatment geared to chronicity, such as assertive community treatment and intensive case management, needs to be more readily available for SUD populations.

Negative symptoms and their association with depressive symptoms in the long-term course of schizophrenia

Depressive symptoms abound in schizophrenia and even in subclinical states of the disorder. We studied the frequency of these symptoms and their relationship to negative symptoms from the first psychotic episode on over a long-term course of 134 months on data for 107 patients in our ABC Schizophrenia Study. Prevalence rates of 90 % for presenting at least one negative symptom and of 60 % for presenting at least one depressive symptom in the first psychotic episode illustrate the frequency of these syndromes. After the remission of psychosis the rates fell to 50 % (negative symptoms) and 40 % (depressive symptoms) over a period of 5 years, remaining stable thereafter. After we broke the negative syndrome down into (SANS) subsyndromes, a positive association emerged between anhedonia and depressive symptoms and remained stable over the entire period studied. In contrast, the association between abulia and depression grew increasingly pronounced over the illness course. However, a more detailed look revealed this to be the case in female patients only, whereas male patients showed no such association of these symptom dimensions. We have no explanation at hand for this sex difference yet.

Investigating the long-term course of schizophrenia by sequence analysis

In the present study we set out to explore the long-term clinical course of schizophrenia in a holistic manner by adopting sequence analysis. Our aim was to identify course types of illness by means of cluster analysis. The study was based on course and outcome data for 107 patients followed up over 134 months after first admission in the ABC Schizophrenia Study. Focusing on the main syndromes (positive, negative, depressive and unspecific symptoms) and their combinations we looked for similarities in individual illness courses using the 'optimal matching' method. A cluster analysis performed on the resulting similarity matrix yielded two main groups (a 'improving' and a 'chronic' group), which comprised a total of six different types of illness course. The course types differed in both quantitative (frequency of syndromes and syndrome combinations) and qualitative terms (clinical presentation, sequence of syndromes). Cluster membership was only rarely, but clearly associated with sociodemographic characteristics, treatment data and other illness variables.

Long-term course of Dravet syndrome: a study from an epilepsy center in Japan

OBJECTIVE

This study attempted to clarify the long-term course of Dravet syndrome (DS).

METHODS

Sixty-four patients diagnosed with DS (44 with typical DS, and 20 with atypical DS) were studied. The long-term outcomes of clinical seizures, electroencephalographic findings, neuropsychological findings, and social situation were analyzed. The follow-up period ranged from 11 to 34 years 5 months (median 24 years).

RESULTS

At the last visit, the ages ranged from 19 years to 45 years (median 30 years). Fifty-nine patients continued to have generalized tonic-clonic seizures (GTCS). Status epilepticus and unilateral seizures were not observed and myoclonic seizures, atypical absence seizures, and photosensitive seizures were resolved in most patients. The frequency of complex partial seizures was equally low, with five patients at presentation and six patients at the last visit, respectively. Five patients achieved seizure remission (seizure-free for 1 year or longer). Only 1 of 44 patients with typical DS had seizure remission, whereas 4 of 20 patients with atypical DS remitted, with a statistically significant difference between the two phenotypes (p = 0.03). Intellectual disability was found in all patients; especially, severe intellectual disability was prevalent. Patients with atypical DS tended to have milder intellectual disability compared to those with typical DS (p = 0.0283). Occipital alpha rhythm in the basic activity was associated with milder intellectual disability (p = 0.0085). The freedom from seizures correlated with appearance of occipital alpha rhythms (p = 0.0008) and disappearance of epileptic discharges (p = 0.0004). Two patients with GTCS died. Mutations of the neuronal voltage-gated sodium channel alpha subunit type 1 gene were detected at a high frequency (33 of 36 patients examined). Seizure remission was found only in the missense mutation group.

SIGNIFICANCE

The long-term seizure and intellectual outcomes are extremely poor in patients with typical DS compared to those with atypical DS. Epilepsy phenotype may influence long-term course of DS.