A comparison between centralized and asynchronous federated learning approaches for survival outcome prediction using clinical and PET data from non-small cell lung cancer patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Survival analysis plays an essential role in the medical field for optimal treatment decision-making. Recently, survival analysis based on the deep learning (DL) approach has been proposed and is demonstrating promising results. However, developing an ideal prediction model requires integrating large datasets across multiple institutions, which poses challenges concerning medical data privacy.

METHODS

In this paper, we propose FedSurv, an asynchronous federated learning (FL) framework designed to predict survival time using clinical information and positron emission tomography (PET)-based features. This study used two datasets: a public radiogenic dataset of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from the Cancer Imaging Archive (RNSCLC), and an in-house dataset from the Chonnam National University Hwasun Hospital (CNUHH) in South Korea, consisting of clinical risk factors and F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET images in NSCLC patients. Initially, each dataset was divided into multiple clients according to histological attributes, and each client was trained using the proposed DL model to predict individual survival time. The FL framework collected weights and parameters from the clients, which were then incorporated into the global model. Finally, the global model aggregated all weights and parameters and redistributed the updated model weights to each client. We evaluated different frameworks including single-client-based approach, centralized learning and FL.

RESULTS

We evaluated our method on two independent datasets. First, on the RNSCLC dataset, the mean absolute error (MAE) was 490.80±22.95 d and the C-Index was 0.69±0.01. Second, on the CNUHH dataset, the MAE was 494.25±40.16 d and the C-Index was 0.71±0.01. The FL approach achieved centralized method performance in PET-based survival time prediction and outperformed single-client-based approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of employing FL for individual survival prediction in NSCLC patients, using clinical information and PET-based features.

Multimodal artificial intelligence-based pathogenomics improves survival prediction in oral squamous cell carcinoma

In this study, we aimed to develop a novel prognostic algorithm for oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) using a combination of pathogenomics and AI-based techniques. We collected comprehensive clinical, genomic, and pathology data from a cohort of OSCC patients in the TCGA dataset and used machine learning and deep learning algorithms to identify relevant features that are predictive of survival outcomes. Our analyses included 406 OSCC patients. Initial analyses involved gene expression analyses, principal component analyses, gene enrichment analyses, and feature importance analyses. These insights were foundational for subsequent model development. Furthermore, we applied five machine learning/deep learning algorithms (Random Survival Forest, Gradient Boosting Survival Analysis, Cox PH, Fast Survival SVM, and DeepSurv) for survival prediction. Our initial analyses revealed relevant gene expression variations and biological pathways, laying the groundwork for robust feature selection in model building. The results showed that the multimodal model outperformed the unimodal models across all methods, with c-index values of 0.722 for RSF, 0.633 for GBSA, 0.625 for FastSVM, 0.633 for CoxPH, and 0.515 for DeepSurv. When considering only important features, the multimodal model continued to outperform the unimodal models, with c-index values of 0.834 for RSF, 0.747 for GBSA, 0.718 for FastSVM, 0.742 for CoxPH, and 0.635 for DeepSurv. Our results demonstrate the potential of pathogenomics and AI-based techniques in improving the accuracy of prognostic prediction in OSCC, which may ultimately aid in the development of personalized treatment strategies for patients with this devastating disease.

Multimodal Data Integration Advances Longitudinal Prediction of the Naturalistic Course of Depression and Reveals a Multimodal Signature of Remission During 2-Year Follow-up

BACKGROUND

The ability to predict the disease course of individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) is essential for optimal treatment planning. Here, we used a data-driven machine learning approach to assess the predictive value of different sets of biological data (whole-blood proteomics, lipid metabolomics, transcriptomics, genetics), both separately and added to clinical baseline variables, for the longitudinal prediction of 2-year remission status in MDD at the individual-subject level.

METHODS

Prediction models were trained and cross-validated in a sample of 643 patients with current MDD (2-year remission n = 325) and subsequently tested for performance in 161 individuals with MDD (2-year remission n = 82).

RESULTS

Proteomics data showed the best unimodal data predictions (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.68). Adding proteomic to clinical data at baseline significantly improved 2-year MDD remission predictions (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.63 vs. 0.78, p = .013), while the addition of other omics data to clinical data did not yield significantly improved model performance. Feature importance and enrichment analysis revealed that proteomic analytes were involved in inflammatory response and lipid metabolism, with fibrinogen levels showing the highest variable importance, followed by symptom severity. Machine learning models outperformed psychiatrists' ability to predict 2-year remission status (balanced accuracy = 71% vs. 55%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed the added predictive value of combining proteomic data, but not other omics data, with clinical data for the prediction of 2-year remission status in MDD. Our results reveal a novel multimodal signature of 2-year MDD remission status that shows clinical potential for individual MDD disease course predictions from baseline measurements.