Preresolution Drinking Problem Severity Profiles Associated with Stable Moderation Outcomes of Natural Recovery Attempts

BACKGROUND

Higher problem severity contraindicates moderation drinking in treatment samples, but has not been well investigated in natural recovery samples with more prevalent moderation outcomes, nor have single studies assessed multiple severity indicators. Therefore, we integrated 5 prospective studies of recent natural recovery attempts to identify multi-indicator profiles that distinguished moderation from abstinence or unstable resolution involving relapse. The study evaluated whether moderation was distinguished by a generalized lower severity profile or whether more complex profiles better differentiated outcomes.

METHODS

Community-dwelling problem drinkers in the southeastern United States (N = 616, 67% male, 65% white, mean age = 46.5 years) enrolled soon after stopping alcohol misuse without treatment were followed prospectively for a year. Outcome predictors assessed at enrollment included preresolution drinking practices, alcohol-related problems, alcohol dependence, and a behavioral economic measure of the reward value of drinking based on preresolution spending on alcohol versus saving for the future.

RESULTS

Latent profile analysis of severity indicators supported a 4-profile solution: (i) global low risk on all indicators, (ii) global high risk on all indicators, (iii) high risk limited to drinking practices only, and (iv) high risk limited to alcohol dependence and alcohol-related problems only. Outcomes differed by profile membership (p < 0.01). Multinomial logistic regression analyses showed that the global low risk and heavy drinking risk only profiles were associated with stable moderation during the 1-year follow-up. The high dependence and alcohol problems risk profile was associated with both abstinence and relapse during the follow-up (ps < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with prior research, moderation was associated with lower alcohol dependence, problems, and reward value. Participants who simply drank heavily and did not have elevated risk on other indicators also had a higher probability of moderation. Results support using multidimensional severity indicators that encompass functional variables in addition to drinking practices to predict outcomes.

Desistance and Severity of Alcohol Use Disorder: A Lifespan-Developmental Investigation

Key to an understanding of alcohol use disorder (AUD) are the drinking-related reductions that begin in young adulthood and continue throughout the adult lifespan. Research is needed to precisely characterize the form of these reductions, including possible developmental differences across the lifespan. Using U.S.-representative data, we estimated multiple-group Markov models characterizing longitudinal transitions among five drinking statuses and differences in transition patterns across six adult age periods. While past research indicates relative developmental stability in overall AUD-desistance rates, we found far higher rates of Severe-AUD desistance in young adulthood relative to later ages. Especially considering the dramatic change reflected by Severe-AUD desistance (from 6+ symptoms to 0-1 symptoms), this result indicates a substantial developmental shift, with Severe-AUD-desistance rates peaking at 43-50% across ages 25-34 and then dropping to 22-24% across ages 35-55. We discuss implications regarding practical significance of young-adult "maturing out" and predictions regarding lifespan variability in desistance mechanisms.

Prospective Analysis of Behavioral Economic Predictors of Stable Moderation Drinking Among Problem Drinkers Attempting Natural Recovery

BACKGROUND

As interventions have expanded beyond clinical treatment to include brief interventions for persons with less severe alcohol problems, predicting who can achieve stable moderation drinking has gained importance. Recent behavioral economic (BE) research on natural recovery has shown that active problem drinkers who allocate their monetary expenditures on alcohol and saving for the future over longer time horizons tend to have better subsequent recovery outcomes, including maintenance of stable moderation drinking. This study compared the predictive utility of this money-based "Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure" (ASDE) index with multiple BE analogue measures of behavioral impulsivity and self-control, which have seldom been investigated together, to predict outcomes of natural recovery attempts.

METHODS

Community-dwelling problem drinkers, enrolled shortly after stopping abusive drinking without treatment, were followed prospectively for up to a year (N = 175 [75.4% male], M age = 50.65 years). They completed baseline assessments of preresolution drinking practices and problems, analogue behavioral choice tasks (Delay Discounting, Melioration-Maximization, and Alcohol Purchase Tasks), and a Timeline Followback interview including expenditures on alcohol compared to voluntary savings (ASDE index) during the preresolution year.

RESULTS

Multinomial logistic regression models showed that, among the BE measures, only the ASDE index predicted stable moderation drinking compared to stable abstinence or unstable resolutions involving relapse. As hypothesized, stable moderation was associated with more balanced preresolution allocations to drinking and savings (odds ratio = 1.77, 95% confidence interval = 1.02 to 3.08, p < 0.05), suggesting it is associated with longer-term behavior regulation processes than abstinence.

CONCLUSIONS

The ASDE's unique predictive utility may rest on its comprehensive representation of contextual elements to support this patterning of behavioral allocation. Stable low-risk drinking, but not abstinence, requires such regulatory processes.