The efficiency of COVID cases to COVID policies: a robust conditional approach

This paper examines the efficiency of four major COVID-19 social distancing policies: (i) shelter-in-place orders (SIPO), (ii) non-essential business closures, (iii) mandatory quarantine for travelers, and (iv) bans on large gatherings. Results suggest that the average US state is highly inefficient in producing the fraction of the population that does not have COVID-19 without social distancing policies put in place. We find that having any of the four major social distancing policies increases conditional efficiency by 9.7 (9.5) percentage points in the first 100 days (full sample). This corresponds to 57 (172) fewer total COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population in the first 100 days (full sample). We also find that population density accounts for a majority of unconditional state inefficiency. Evidence suggests considerable heterogeneity in conditional efficiency improvement, indicating that no uniform national social distancing policy would have been more effective; more effective strategies would have been to target more densely populated areas. Conditional efficiency regressions suggest that bans on large gatherings were the most effective policies, with SIPOs and non-essential business closures having smaller impacts. States that implemented social distancing policies except mandatory quarantine for traveler policies were highly effective for the first 100 days, but had less effectiveness over the full sample. There is also preliminary evidence that premature revocations of social distancing policies reduced conditional efficiency, leading to COVID-19 case spikes.

Transnational resource generativity: Efficiency analysis and target setting of water, energy, land, and food nexus for OECD countries

Depletion of natural resources needs quantification and efficiency analysis of the use of resources to improve sustainability. This paper evaluates the efficiency of Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) countries in terms of Water-Energy-Land-Food (WELF-Nexus) to ensure sustainability and environmental viability for both present and future generations. An input-output index system is built at a transnational level. Composite and intrinsic indicators are introduced to incorporate the interconnections and tradeoffs between sectors of the nexus and outcomes of the nexus. The nonparametric benchmarking order-α model, resulting from Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to estimate WELF-Nexus efficiency of each country, and to alleviate the intricacies of using composite and intrinsic indicators. To ensure resource generativity, an output target setting model that accommodates predefined input is proposed. Results show variation in performance among OECD members, with an annual average efficiency score of 68%, 69% and 78% in 2007, 2012, and 2016. Sensitivity analysis was performed to measure the effect of drought on WELF efficiency, a decrease of about 13% on average WELF efficiency was observed. Outputs improvement was recommended for each country: Lithuania (14%), Mexico (10%) and 11% for Hungary, Latvia, and Turkey due to their high inefficiency. The study provides a robust framework for policy making and shows that a win-win strategy for the nexus must be implemented to achieve WELF-Nexus efficiency, given the trade-offs within its sectors. Furthermore, it highlights that innovative-driven policies will enhance WELF-Nexus efficiency and sustainability.