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d'Arminio Monforte A, Tavelli A, Bai F, Tomasoni D, Falcinella C, Castoldi R, Barbanotti D, Mulè G, Allegrini M, Tesoro D, Tagliaferri G, Mondatore D, Augello M, Cona A, Ancona G, Gazzola L, Iannotti N, Tincati C, Viganò O, De Bona A, Bini T, Cozzi-Lepri A, Marchetti G. The importance of patients' case-mix for the correct interpretation of the hospital fatality rate in COVID-19 disease. Int J Infect Dis 2020; 100:67-74. [PMID: 32950738 PMCID: PMC7497732 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2020] [Revised: 08/31/2020] [Accepted: 09/13/2020] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We aimed to document data on the epidemiology and factors associated with clinical course leading to death of patients hospitalised with COVID-19. METHODS Prospective observational cohort study on patients hospitalised with COVID-19 disease in February-24th/May-17th 2020 in Milan, Italy. Uni-multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed. Death's percentage by two-weeks' intervals according to age and disease severity was analysed. RESULTS A total of 174/539 (32.3%) patients died in hospital over 8228 person-day follow-up; the 14-day Kaplan-Meier probability of death was 29.5% (95%CI: 25.5-34.0). Older age, burden of comorbidities, COVID-19 disease severity, inflammatory markers at admission were independent predictors of increased risk, while several drug-combinations were predictors of reduced risk of in-hospital death. The highest fatality rate, 36.5%, occurred during the 2nd-3rd week of March, when 55.4% of patients presented with severe disease, while a second peak, by the end of April, was related to the admission of older patients (55% ≥80 years) with less severe disease, 30% coming from long-term care facilities. CONCLUSIONS The unusual fatality rate in our setting is likely to be related to age and the clinical conditions of our patients. These findings may be useful to better allocate resources of the national healthcare system, in case of re-intensification of COVID-19 epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonella d'Arminio Monforte
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
| | - Alessandro Tavelli
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Francesca Bai
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Daniele Tomasoni
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Camilla Falcinella
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Roberto Castoldi
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Diletta Barbanotti
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Giovanni Mulè
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Marina Allegrini
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Daniele Tesoro
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Gianmarco Tagliaferri
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Debora Mondatore
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Matteo Augello
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Andrea Cona
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Giuseppe Ancona
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Lidia Gazzola
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Nathalie Iannotti
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Camilla Tincati
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Ottavia Viganò
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Anna De Bona
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Teresa Bini
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Alessandro Cozzi-Lepri
- Centre for Clinical Research, Epidemiology, Modelling and Evaluation, Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Giulia Marchetti
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Department of Health Science, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
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