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Di Lorenzo E, Xu T, Zhao Y, Newman M, Capotondi A, Stevenson S, Amaya DJ, Anderson BT, Ding R, Furtado JC, Joh Y, Liguori G, Lou J, Miller AJ, Navarra G, Schneider N, Vimont DJ, Wu S, Zhang H. Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability. Ann Rev Mar Sci 2023; 15:249-275. [PMID: 36112981 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-marine-040422-084555] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific-central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical-extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Di Lorenzo
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA;
| | - T Xu
- Physical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Y Zhao
- Deep-Sea Multidisciplinary Research Center, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, China
| | - M Newman
- Physical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - A Capotondi
- Physical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - S Stevenson
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - D J Amaya
- Physical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - B T Anderson
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - R Ding
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - J C Furtado
- School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Y Joh
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - G Liguori
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
- School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - J Lou
- Physical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - A J Miller
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - G Navarra
- Program in Ocean Science and Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - N Schneider
- International Pacific Research Center and Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
| | - D J Vimont
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - S Wu
- Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - H Zhang
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Houston, Houston, Texas, USA
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Ayarzagüena B, Manzini E, Calvo N, Matei D. Interaction between decadal-to-multidecadal oceanic variability and sudden stratospheric warmings. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2021; 1504:215-229. [PMID: 34247389 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2021] [Revised: 06/04/2021] [Accepted: 06/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most important phenomena of the wintertime boreal stratospheric variability. During SSWs, the polar temperature increases abruptly, and easterlies prevail in the stratosphere. Their effects extend farther from the polar stratosphere, affecting near-surface circulation. According to observations, SSWs are not equally distributed in time, with decades experiencing very few events, while others experiencing SSWs almost every winter. Some sources of this SSW multidecadal variability can be traced back to sea surface temperature changes. Here, we investigate the effects of Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on SSWs. We use for the first time a large ensemble of historical experiments to examine the modulation of the frequency, tropospheric precursors, and impact of SSWs by the PDV and AMV. We find a strong impact of the PDV on the occurrence of SSWs, with a higher SSW frequency for the positive phase of the PDV. This PDV influence is mediated by constructive interference of PDV anomalies with tropospheric stationary waves. The main effect of AMV is, instead, a modulation of the tropospheric response to SSWs, a finding that can be useful for predicting the tropospheric fingerprint of SSWs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Blanca Ayarzagüena
- Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Elisa Manzini
- Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Natalia Calvo
- Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Daniela Matei
- Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
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Tokinaga H, Xie SP, Mukougawa H. Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:6227-32. [PMID: 28559341 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1615880114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.
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