Historical and future trends of cadmium in rice soils deduced from long-term regional investigation and probabilistic modeling

When rice soils are contaminated by cadmium (Cd), the sources and timing of such contaminations need to be identified. In this study, we aimed to quantify the sources, history, and fate of Cd in the rice soils of southern China, by combining a near 10-year regional investigation, by developing a normalized positive matrix factorization algorithm, a Cd mass balance model, and probabilistic simulation. We simulated the historical contamination process of Cd in rice soils from 1991 to 2019 and the future changes from 2019 to 2069 under varying input parameters, as affected by different environmental management measures. Over the period of 1991-2019, the input flux of Cd through atmospheric deposition was estimated at 421 g ha^-1, which contributed 52.1% of the total increments in soil Cd concentration. Over the next decade, a 25.6% probability is predicted that the Cd concentration of local rice soils would increase from the baseline to the upper level of soil threshold, despite the efforts of environmental regulators. Removing the rice straw from production fields, cleaning up the irrigation channels, and strengthening environmental regulations would take approximately 50 years (2019-2069) to ensure that 90% of soils were safe for rice cultivation.

Probabilistic estimates of prenatal lead exposure at 195 toxic hotspots in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Prior estimates of pediatric lead-related disease burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) used population estimates of maternal blood lead levels (BLLs). This approach may underestimate fetal BLLs by not considering potentially high prenatal lead exposure from toxic hotspots. OBJECTIVES: We developed a probabilistic approach to using the Adult Lead Methodology (ALM) to estimate fetal BLLs from prenatal exposure to lead-contaminated soil at hotspots in the Toxic Site Identification Program (TSIP).

METHODS

We created distributions for each ALM parameter using published literature and extracted soil lead measurements from the TSIP database. Each iteration of the probabilistic ALM randomly selected values from the input distributions to generate a site-specific fetal BLL estimate. For each site, we ran 5000 model iterations, producing a site-specific fetal BLL distribution.

RESULTS

195 TSIP sites, in 33 LMICs, met our study inclusion criteria; an estimated 820,000 women of childbearing age are at risk for lead exposure at these sites. The predicted geometric means (GM) for site-specific fetal BLLs ranged from 3.3 μg/dL to 534 μg/dL, and 98% of sites had estimated GM fetal BLLs >5 μg/dL, the current reference level of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), while 11 sites had estimated GM fetal BLLs above the CDC chelation threshold of 45 μg/dL.

DISCUSSION

The TSIP soil lead data and this probabilistic approach to the ALM show that pregnant women living near TSIP sites may have BLLs that put their fetus at risk for neurologic damage and other sequelae, underscoring the need for interventions to reduce lead exposure at toxic hotspots.

Inferring mass in complex scenes by mental simulation

After observing a collision between two boxes, you can immediately tell which is empty and which is full of books based on how the boxes moved. People form rich perceptions about the physical properties of objects from their interactions, an ability that plays a crucial role in learning about the physical world through our experiences. Here, we present three experiments that demonstrate people's capacity to reason about the relative masses of objects in naturalistic 3D scenes. We find that people make accurate inferences, and that they continue to fine-tune their beliefs over time. To explain our results, we propose a cognitive model that combines Bayesian inference with approximate knowledge of Newtonian physics by estimating probabilities from noisy physical simulations. We find that this model accurately predicts judgments from our experiments, suggesting that the same simulation mechanism underlies both peoples' predictions and inferences about the physical world around them.

Architecture of the sperm whale forehead facilitates ramming combat

Herman Melville’s novel Moby Dick was inspired by historical instances in which large sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus L.) sank 19th century whaling ships by ramming them with their foreheads. The immense forehead of sperm whales is possibly the largest, and one of the strangest, anatomical structures in the animal kingdom. It contains two large oil-filled compartments, known as the “spermaceti organ” and “junk,” that constitute up to one-quarter of body mass and extend one-third of the total length of the whale. Recognized as playing an important role in echolocation, previous studies have also attributed the complex structural configuration of the spermaceti organ and junk to acoustic sexual selection, acoustic prey debilitation, buoyancy control, and aggressive ramming. Of these additional suggested functions, ramming remains the most controversial, and the potential mechanical roles of the structural components of the spermaceti organ and junk in ramming remain untested. Here we explore the aggressive ramming hypothesis using a novel combination of structural engineering principles and probabilistic simulation to determine if the unique structure of the junk significantly reduces stress in the skull during quasi-static impact. Our analyses indicate that the connective tissue partitions in the junk reduce von Mises stresses across the skull and that the load-redistribution functionality of the former is insensitive to moderate variation in tissue material parameters, the thickness of the partitions, and variations in the location and angle of the applied load. Absence of the connective tissue partitions increases skull stresses, particularly in the rostral aspect of the upper jaw, further hinting of the important role the architecture of the junk may play in ramming events. Our study also found that impact loads on the spermaceti organ generate lower skull stresses than an impact on the junk. Nevertheless, whilst an impact on the spermaceti organ would reduce skull stresses, it would also cause high compressive stresses on the anterior aspect of the organ and the connective tissue case, possibly making these structures more prone to failure. This outcome, coupled with the facts that the spermaceti organ houses sensitive and essential sonar producing structures and the rostral portion of junk, rather than the spermaceti organ, is frequently a site of significant scarring in mature males suggest that whales avoid impact with the spermaceti organ. Although the unique structure of the junk certainly serves multiple functions, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the structure also evolved to function as a massive battering ram during male-male competition.