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Jin ZC, Chen JJ, Zhu XL, Duan XH, Xin YJ, Zhong BY, Chen JZ, Tie J, Zhu KS, Zhang L, Huang M, Piao MJ, Li X, Shi HB, Liu RB, Xu AB, Ji F, Wu JB, Shao GL, Li HL, Huang MS, Peng ZY, Ji JS, Yuan CW, Liu XF, Hu ZC, Yang WZ, Yin GW, Huang JH, Ge NJ, Qi X, Zhao Y, Zhou JW, Xu GH, Tu Q, Lin HL, Zhang YJ, Jiang H, Shao HB, Su YJ, Chen TS, Shi BQ, Zhou X, Zhao HT, Zhu HD, Ren ZG, Teng GJ. Immune checkpoint inhibitors and anti-vascular endothelial growth factor antibody/tyrosine kinase inhibitors with or without transarterial chemoembolization as first-line treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (CHANCE2201): a target trial emulation study. EClinicalMedicine 2024; 72:102622. [PMID: 38745965 PMCID: PMC11090892 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102622] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2024] [Revised: 04/15/2024] [Accepted: 04/16/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Background The role of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unconfirmed. This study aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) plus anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) antibody/tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) with or without TACE as first-line treatment for advanced HCC. Methods This nationwide, multicenter, retrospective cohort study included advanced HCC patients receiving either TACE with ICIs plus anti-VEGF antibody/TKIs (TACE-ICI-VEGF) or only ICIs plus anti-VEGF antibody/TKIs (ICI-VEGF) from January 2018 to December 2022. The study design followed the target trial emulation framework with stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (sIPTW) to minimize biases. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes included progression-free survival (PFS), objective response rate (ORR), and safety. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05332821. Findings Among 1244 patients included in the analysis, 802 (64.5%) patients received TACE-ICI-VEGF treatment, and 442 (35.5%) patients received ICI-VEGF treatment. The median follow-up time was 21.1 months and 20.6 months, respectively. Post-application of sIPTW, baseline characteristics were well-balanced between the two groups. TACE-ICI-VEGF group exhibited a significantly improved median OS (22.6 months [95% CI: 21.2-23.9] vs 15.9 months [14.9-17.8]; P < 0.0001; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.63 [95% CI: 0.53-0.75]). Median PFS was also longer in TACE-ICI-VEGF group (9.9 months [9.1-10.6] vs 7.4 months [6.7-8.5]; P < 0.0001; aHR 0.74 [0.65-0.85]) per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST) version 1.1. A higher ORR was observed in TACE-ICI-VEGF group, by either RECIST v1.1 or modified RECIST (41.2% vs 22.9%, P < 0.0001; 47.3% vs 29.7%, P < 0.0001). Grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in 178 patients (22.2%) in TACE-ICI-VEGF group and 80 patients (18.1%) in ICI-VEGF group. Interpretation This multicenter study supports the use of TACE combined with ICIs and anti-VEGF antibody/TKIs as first-line treatment for advanced HCC, demonstrating an acceptable safety profile. Funding National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Jiangsu Provincial Medical Innovation Center, Collaborative Innovation Center of Radiation Medicine of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, and Nanjing Life Health Science and Technology Project.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhi-Cheng Jin
- Center of Interventional Radiology & Vascular Surgery, Nurturing Center of Jiangsu Province for State Laboratory of AI Imaging & Interventional Radiology (Southeast University), Department of Radiology, Zhongda Hospital, Medical School, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Digital Medical Engineering, National Innovation Platform for Integration of Medical Engineering Education (NMEE) (Southeast University), Basic Medicine Research and Innovation Center of Ministry of Education, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jian-Jian Chen
- Center of Interventional Radiology & Vascular Surgery, Nurturing Center of Jiangsu Province for State Laboratory of AI Imaging & Interventional Radiology (Southeast University), Department of Radiology, Zhongda Hospital, Medical School, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Digital Medical Engineering, National Innovation Platform for Integration of Medical Engineering Education (NMEE) (Southeast University), Basic Medicine Research and Innovation Center of Ministry of Education, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Xiao-Li Zhu
- Department of Interventional Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Soochow University, Suzhou, China
| | - Xu-Hua Duan
- Department of Interventional Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China
| | - Yu-Jing Xin
- Department of Minimally Invasive Comprehensive Treatment of Cancer, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China
| | - Bin-Yan Zhong
- Department of Interventional Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Soochow University, Suzhou, China
| | - Jin-Zhang Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jun Tie
- National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases and Xijing Hospital of Digestive Diseases, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China
| | - Kang-Shun Zhu
- Department of Minimally Invasive Interventional Radiology and Radiology Center, and Minimally Invasive and Interventional Cancer Center, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Lan Zhang
- Department of Hepatic Oncology, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Ming Huang
- Department of Minimally Invasive Interventional Therapy, Yunnan Tumor Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Ming-Jian Piao
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Xiao Li
- Department of Interventional Therapy, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Hai-Bin Shi
- Department of Interventional Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Rui-Bao Liu
- Department of Interventional Radiology, The Tumor Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
| | - Ai-Bing Xu
- Department of Interventional Therapy, Nantong Tumor Hospital, Nantong, China
| | - Fanpu Ji
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
- Key Laboratory of Environment and Genes Related to Diseases, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Ministry of Education of China, Xi'an, China
| | - Jian-Bing Wu
- Department of Oncology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, China
| | - Guo-Liang Shao
- Intervention Department, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou, China
| | - Hai-Liang Li
- Department of Minimally Invasive Intervention, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Ming-Sheng Huang
- Department of Interventional Radiology, The Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zhi-Yi Peng
- Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Interventional Treatment Center, Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Jian-Song Ji
- Department of Radiology, Key Laboratory of Imaging Diagnosis and Minimally Invasive Intervention Research, School of Medicine, Lishui Hospital of Zhejiang University, Lishui, China
| | - Chun-Wang Yuan
- Center of Interventional Oncology and Liver Diseases, Beijing Youan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Xiu-Feng Liu
- Department of Oncology, Nanjing Jinling Hospital of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Zhou-Chao Hu
- Interventional Diagnosis and Treatment Center, Zhoushan Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Wei-Zhu Yang
- Department of Interventional Radiology, Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Guo-Wen Yin
- Department of Interventional Radiology, Jiangsu Cancer Hospital & Jiangsu Institute of Cancer Research & the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jin-Hua Huang
- Department of Minimally Invasive Interventional Therapy, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China
| | - Nai-Jian Ge
- Department of Interventional Radiology, Eastern Hospital of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xiaolong Qi
- Center of Portal Hypertension, Department of Radiology, Zhongda Hospital, Medical School, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yang Zhao
- Department of Biostatistics, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jia-Wei Zhou
- Department of Biostatistics, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Guo-Hui Xu
- Department of Interventional Radiology, Sichuan Cancer Hospital and Institute, Chengdu, China
| | - Qiang Tu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Oncology Surgery, Department of Interventional Oncology, Jiangxi Cancer Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, China
| | - Hai-Lan Lin
- Department of Tumor Interventional Therapy, Fujian Cancer Hospital, Fuzhou, China
| | - Yao-Jun Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Oncology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hua Jiang
- Cancer Treatment Centers, Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Hai-Bo Shao
- Department of Interventional Radiology, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Yong-Jie Su
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Chronic Liver Disease and Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Xiamen Key Laboratory of Translational Medical of Digestive System Tumor, Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Ting-Song Chen
- Second Department of Oncology, Seventh People's Hospital of Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Bao-Qi Shi
- Department of Intervention, Inner Mongolia People's Hospital, Hohhot, China
| | - Xiang Zhou
- Department of Interventional Therapy, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Hai-Tao Zhao
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Hai-Dong Zhu
- Center of Interventional Radiology & Vascular Surgery, Nurturing Center of Jiangsu Province for State Laboratory of AI Imaging & Interventional Radiology (Southeast University), Department of Radiology, Zhongda Hospital, Medical School, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Digital Medical Engineering, National Innovation Platform for Integration of Medical Engineering Education (NMEE) (Southeast University), Basic Medicine Research and Innovation Center of Ministry of Education, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Zheng-Gang Ren
- Department of Hepatic Oncology, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Gao-Jun Teng
- Center of Interventional Radiology & Vascular Surgery, Nurturing Center of Jiangsu Province for State Laboratory of AI Imaging & Interventional Radiology (Southeast University), Department of Radiology, Zhongda Hospital, Medical School, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Digital Medical Engineering, National Innovation Platform for Integration of Medical Engineering Education (NMEE) (Southeast University), Basic Medicine Research and Innovation Center of Ministry of Education, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
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Omura S, Kida T, Noma H, Inoue H, Sofue H, Sakashita A, Kadoya M, Nakagomi D, Abe Y, Takizawa N, Nomura A, Kukida Y, Kondo N, Yamano Y, Yanagida T, Endo K, Hirata S, Matsui K, Takeuchi T, Ichinose K, Kato M, Yanai R, Matsuo Y, Shimojima Y, Nishioka R, Okazaki R, Takata T, Ito T, Moriyama M, Takatani A, Miyawaki Y, Ito-Ihara T, Yajima N, Kawaguchi T, Hirano A, Fujioka K, Fujii W, Seno T, Wada M, Kohno M, Kawahito Y. Effectiveness of intravenous methylprednisolone pulse in patients with severe microscopic polyangiitis and granulomatosis with polyangiitis. Rheumatology (Oxford) 2024:keae219. [PMID: 38608193 DOI: 10.1093/rheumatology/keae219] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2023] [Revised: 01/26/2024] [Accepted: 04/01/2024] [Indexed: 04/14/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of two different intravenous methylprednisolone (IVMP) pulse doses in patients with severe microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) and granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA). METHODS We emulated a target trial using observational data from the nationwide registry in Japan. Patients with severe glomerulonephritis or diffuse alveolar haemorrhage were selected and pseudo-randomised into three groups using propensity score-based overlap weighting as follows: non-IVMP, IVMP 0.5 g/day, and IVMP 1.0 g/day. The primary outcome was all-cause death, and the secondary outcomes were composite all-cause death and kidney failure, severe relapse, and serious infection from 2 to 48 weeks after treatment initiation. To estimate the treatment effects, the Cox proportional hazard model and Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model were used. RESULTS In this emulated target trial, of 201 eligible patients (MPA, 175; GPA, 26), 6 (2.8%) died, 4 (2.0%) had kidney failure, 11 (5.3%) had severe relapse, and 40 (19.8%) had severe infections. Hazard ratios (HR) for IVMP 0.5 g/day and IVMP 1.0 g/day pulse groups compared with non-IVMP pulse were as follows: all-cause death = 0.46 (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 0.07-2.81) and 0.07 (95%CI: 0.01-0.41); all-cause death/kidney failure = 1.18 (95%CI: 0.26-5.31) and 0.59 (95%CI: 0.08-4.52); subdistribution HRs for severe relapse = 1.26 (95%CI: 0.12-13.70) and 3.36 (95%CI: 0.49-23.29); and serious infection = 1.88 (95%CI: 0.76-4.65) and 0.94 (95%CI: 0.28-3.13). CONCLUSIONS IVMP 1.0 g/day pulse may improve 48-week mortality in patients with severe MPA/GPA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Satoshi Omura
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Takashi Kida
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Hisashi Noma
- Department of Data Science, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hironori Inoue
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Hideaki Sofue
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Aki Sakashita
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Masatoshi Kadoya
- Center for Rheumatic Disease, Japanese Red Cross Society Kyoto Daiichi Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Daiki Nakagomi
- Department of Rheumatology, University of Yamanashi Hospital, Yamanashi, Japan
| | - Yoshiyuki Abe
- Department of Internal Medicine and Rheumatology, Juntendo University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Naoho Takizawa
- Department of Rheumatology, Chubu Rosai Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Atsushi Nomura
- Immuno-Rheumatology Center, St Luke's International Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yuji Kukida
- Department of Rheumatology, Japanese Red Cross Society Kyoto Daini Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Naoya Kondo
- Department of Nephrology, Kyoto Katsura Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Yasuhiko Yamano
- Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergy, Tosei General Hospital, Aichi, Japan
| | - Takuya Yanagida
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
- Department of Hematology and Rheumatology, Kagoshima University Hospital, Kagoshima, Japan
| | - Koji Endo
- Department of General Internal Medicine, Tottori Prefectural Central Hospital, Tottori, Japan
| | - Shintaro Hirata
- Department of Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology, Hiroshima University Hospital, Hiroshima, Japan
| | - Kiyoshi Matsui
- Department of Diabetes, Endocrinology and Clinical Immunology, Hyogo Medical University School of Medicine, Hyogo, Japan
| | - Tohru Takeuchi
- Department of Internal Medicine (IV), Osaka Medical and Pharmaceutical University, Osaka, Japan
| | - Kunihiro Ichinose
- Department of Immunology and Rheumatology, Division of Advanced Preventive Medical Sciences, Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Nagasaki, Japan
- Department of Rheumatology, Shimane University Faculty of Medicine, Izumo, Japan
| | - Masaru Kato
- Department of Rheumatology, Endocrinology and Nephrology, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Ryo Yanai
- Division of Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, Showa University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yusuke Matsuo
- Department of Rheumatology, Tokyo Kyosai Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Rheumatology, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yasuhiro Shimojima
- Department of Medicine (Neurology and Rheumatology), Shinshu University School of Medicine, Matsumoto, Japan
| | - Ryo Nishioka
- Department of Rheumatology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa, Japan
| | - Ryota Okazaki
- Division of Respiratory Medicine and Rheumatology, Department of Multidisciplinary Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Tottori University, Yonago, Japan
| | - Tomoaki Takata
- Division of Gastroenterology and Nephrology, Tottori University, Yonago, Japan
| | - Takafumi Ito
- Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Teikyo University Chiba Medical Center, Ichihara, Japan
| | - Mayuko Moriyama
- Department of Rheumatology, Shimane University Faculty of Medicine, Izumo, Japan
| | - Ayuko Takatani
- Rheumatic Disease Center, Sasebo Chuo Hospital, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yoshia Miyawaki
- Department of Nephrology, Rheumatology, Endocrinology and Metabolism, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama, Japan
| | - Toshiko Ito-Ihara
- Clinical and Translational Research Center, University Hospital, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Nobuyuki Yajima
- Division of Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, Showa University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Healthcare Epidemiology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine and Public Health, Kyoto, Japan
- Center for Innovative Research for Communities and Clinical Excellence, Fukushima Medical University, Fukushima, Japan
| | - Takashi Kawaguchi
- Department of Practical Pharmacy, Tokyo University of Pharmacy and Life Sciences, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Aiko Hirano
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Kazuki Fujioka
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Wataru Fujii
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Takahiro Seno
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Makoto Wada
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Masataka Kohno
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Yutaka Kawahito
- Inflammation and Immunology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
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Leening MJG, Boersma E. The perpetual need of randomized clinical trials: challenges and uncertainties in emulating the REDUCE-AMI trial. Eur J Epidemiol 2024; 39:343-347. [PMID: 38733447 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-024-01127-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2024] [Accepted: 04/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/13/2024]
Abstract
Trial emulations in observational data analyses can complement findings from randomized clinical trials, inform future trial designs, or generate evidence when randomized studies are not feasible due to resource constraints and ethical or practical limitations. Importantly, trial emulation designs facilitate causal inference in observational data analyses by enhancing counterfactual thinking and comparisons of real-world observations (e.g. Mendelian Randomization) to hypothetical interventions. In order to enhance credibility, trial emulations would benefit from prospective registration, publication of statistical analysis plans, and subsequent prospective benchmarking to randomized clinical trials prior to their publication. Confounding by indication, however, is the key challenge to interpreting observed intended effects of an intervention as causal in observational data analyses. We discuss the target trial emulation of the REDUCE-AMI randomized clinical trial (ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT03278509; beta-blocker use in patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction after myocardial infarction) to illustrate the challenges and uncertainties of studying intended effects of interventions without randomization to account for confounding. We furthermore directly compare the findings, statistical power, and clinical interpretation of the results of the REDUCE-AMI target trial emulation to those from the simultaneously published randomized clinical trial. The complexity and subtlety of confounding by indication when studying intended effects of interventions can generally only be addressed by randomization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maarten J G Leening
- Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC - University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
- Cardiovascular Institute, Department of Cardiology, Erasmus MC - University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
- Department of Radiology, Erasmus MC - University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
| | - Eric Boersma
- Cardiovascular Institute, Department of Cardiology, Erasmus MC - University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
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Wallach JD, Deng Y, Polley EC, Dhruva SS, Herrin J, Quinto K, Gandotra C, Crown W, Noseworthy P, Yao X, Jeffery MM, Lyon TD, Ross JS, McCoy RG. Assessing the use of observational methods and real-world data to emulate ongoing randomized controlled trials. Clin Trials 2023; 20:689-698. [PMID: 37589143 PMCID: PMC10843567 DOI: 10.1177/17407745231193137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS There has been growing interest in better understanding the potential of observational research methods in medical product evaluation and regulatory decision-making. Previously, we used linked claims and electronic health record data to emulate two ongoing randomized controlled trials, characterizing the populations and results of each randomized controlled trial prior to publication of its results. Here, our objective was to compare the populations and results from the emulated trials with those of the now-published randomized controlled trials. METHODS This study compared participants' demographic and clinical characteristics and study results between the emulated trials, which used structured data from OptumLabs Data Warehouse, and the published PRONOUNCE and GRADE trials. First, we examined the feasibility of implementing the baseline participant characteristics included in the published PRONOUNCE and GRADE trials' using real-world data and classified each variable as ascertainable, partially ascertainable, or not ascertainable. Second, we compared the emulated trials and published randomized controlled trials for baseline patient characteristics (concordance determined using standardized mean differences <0.20) and results of the primary and secondary endpoints (concordance determined by direction of effect estimates and statistical significance). RESULTS The PRONOUNCE trial enrolled 544 participants, and the emulated trial included 2226 propensity score-matched participants. In the PRONOUNCE trial publication, one of the 32 baseline participant characteristics was listed as an exclusion criterion on ClinicalTrials.gov but was ultimately not used. Among the remaining 31 characteristics, 9 (29.0%) were ascertainable, 11 (35.5%) were partially ascertainable, and 10 (32.2%) were not ascertainable using structured data from OptumLabs. For one additional variable, the PRONOUNCE trial did not provide sufficient detail to allow its ascertainment. Of the nine variables that were ascertainable, values in the emulated trial and published randomized controlled trial were discordant for 6 (66.7%). The primary endpoint of time from randomization to the first major adverse cardiovascular event and secondary endpoints of nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke were concordant between the emulated trial and published randomized controlled trial. The GRADE trial enrolled 5047 participants, and the emulated trial included 7540 participants. In the GRADE trial publication, 8 of 34 (23.5%) baseline participant characteristics were ascertainable, 14 (41.2%) were partially ascertainable, and 11 (32.4%) were not ascertainable using structured data from OptumLabs. For one variable, the GRADE trial did not provide sufficient detail to allow for ascertainment. Of the eight variables that were ascertainable, values in the emulated trial and published randomized controlled trial were discordant for 4 (50.0%). The primary endpoint of time to hemoglobin A1c ≥7.0% was mostly concordant between the emulated trial and the published randomized controlled trial. CONCLUSION Despite challenges, observational methods and real-world data can be leveraged in certain important situations for a more timely evaluation of drug effectiveness and safety in more diverse and representative patient populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joshua D Wallach
- Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Yihong Deng
- Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Eric C Polley
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Sanket S Dhruva
- Section of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, San Francisco, CA, USA
- San Francisco School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Jeph Herrin
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kenneth Quinto
- Office of Medical Policy, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Silver Springs, MD, USA
| | - Charu Gandotra
- Office of New Drugs, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Silver Springs, MD, USA
| | - William Crown
- Florence Heller Graduate School, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA, USA
| | - Peter Noseworthy
- Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Xiaoxi Yao
- Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Molly Moore Jeffery
- Division of Health Care Delivery Research and Department of Emergency Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Timothy D Lyon
- Department of Urology, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - Joseph S Ross
- Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Yale New Haven Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Rozalina G McCoy
- Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
- Division of Community Internal Medicine, Geriatrics, and Palliative Care, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
- OptumLabs, Eden Prairie, MN, USA
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Zuo H, Yu L, Campbell SM, Yamamoto SS, Yuan Y. The implementation of target trial emulation for causal inference: a scoping review. J Clin Epidemiol 2023; 162:29-37. [PMID: 37562726 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2023] [Revised: 07/25/2023] [Accepted: 08/02/2023] [Indexed: 08/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We aim to investigate the implementation of Target Trial Emulation (TTE) for causal inference, involving research topics, frequently used strategies, and issues indicating the need for future improvements. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We performed a scoping review by following the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) guidance and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist. A health research-focused librarian searched multiple medical databases, and two independent reviewers completed screening and extraction within covidence review management software. RESULTS Our search resulted in 1,240 papers, of which 96 papers were eligible for data extraction. Results show a significant increase in the use of TTE in 2018 and 2021. The study topics varied and focused primarily on cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and infectious diseases. However, not all papers specified well all three critical components for generating robust causal evidence: time-zero, random assignment simulation, and comparison strategy. Some common issues were observed from retrieved papers, and key limitations include residual confounding, limited generalizability, and a lack of reporting guidance that need to be improved. CONCLUSION Uneven adherence to the TTE framework exists, and future improvements are needed to progress applications using causal inference with observational data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hanxiao Zuo
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1C9, Canada.
| | - Lin Yu
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1C9, Canada
| | - Sandra M Campbell
- John W. Scott Health Sciences Library, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2R7, Canada
| | - Shelby S Yamamoto
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1C9, Canada
| | - Yan Yuan
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1C9, Canada
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Emilsson L, Song M, Ludvigsson JF. Target trial emulation of aspirin after diagnosis of colorectal polyps. Eur J Epidemiol 2023; 38:1105-1114. [PMID: 37322135 PMCID: PMC10570175 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-023-01024-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2023] [Accepted: 06/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGOUND AND AIMS Previous research on the potential chemoprotective effect of aspirin for colorectal cancer (CRC) shows conflicting results. We aimed to emulate a trial of aspirin intiation in individuals with incident polyps. METHODS We identified individuals registered with their first colorectal polyp in the nationwide gastrointestinal ESPRESSO histopathology cohort in Sweden. Individuals aged 45-79 years diagnosed with colorectal polyps 2006-2016 in Sweden without CRC or contraindications for preventive aspirin (cerebrovascular disease, heart failure, aortic aneurysms, pulmonary emboli, myocardial infarction, gastric ulcer, dementia, liver cirrhosis, or any other metastatic cancer) registered until the month of first polyp detection were eligible. Using duplication and inverse probability weighting, we emulated a target trial of aspirin initiation within 2 years of initial polyp detection. The main outcome measures were incident CRC, CRC mortality and all-cause mortality registered until 2019. RESULTS Of 31,633 individuals meeting our inclusion criteria, 1716 (5%) initiated aspirin within 2 years of colon polyp diagnosis. Median follow-up was 8.07 years. The 10-year cumulative incidence in initiators versus non-initiators was 6% versus 8% for CRC incidence, 1% versus 1% for CRC mortality and 21% versus 18% for all-cause mortality. The corresponding hazard ratios were 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 95%CI = 0.86-0.90), 0.90 (95%CI = 0.75-1.06) and 1.18 (95%CI = 1.12-1.24). CONCLUSION Aspirin initiation in individuals with polyp removal was linked to 2% lower cumulative incidence of CRC after 10 years but did not alter CRC mortality. We also observed a 4% increased risk difference of all-cause mortality at 10 years after the initiation of aspirin.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise Emilsson
- Department of General Practice, Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
- Vårdcentralen Värmlands Nysäter and Centre for Clinical Research, County Council of Värmland, Värmland, Sweden.
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden.
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
| | - Mingyang Song
- Departments of Epidemiology and Nutrition, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Clinical and Translational Epidemiology Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
- Division of Gastroenterology, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jonas F Ludvigsson
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden
- Department of Pediatrics, Örebro University Hospital, Örebro, Sweden
- Celiac Disease Center, Department of Medicine, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY, USA
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Martinuka O, Hazard D, Marateb HR, Maringe C, Mansourian M, Rubio-Rivas M, Wolkewitz M. Target trial emulation with multi-state model analysis to assess treatment effectiveness using clinical COVID-19 data. BMC Med Res Methodol 2023; 23:197. [PMID: 37660025 PMCID: PMC10474639 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-023-02001-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2022] [Accepted: 07/25/2023] [Indexed: 09/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Real-world observational data are an important source of evidence on the treatment effectiveness for patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, observational studies evaluating treatment effectiveness based on longitudinal data are often prone to methodological biases such as immortal time bias, confounding bias, and competing risks. METHODS For exemplary target trial emulation, we used a cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (n = 501) in a single centre. We described the methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of a single-dose treatment, emulated a trial using real-world data, and drafted a hypothetical study protocol describing the main components. To avoid immortal time and time-fixed confounding biases, we applied the clone-censor-weight technique. We set a 5-day grace period as a period of time when treatment could be initiated. We used the inverse probability of censoring weights to account for the selection bias introduced by artificial censoring. To estimate the treatment effects, we took the multi-state model approach. We considered a multi-state model with five states. The primary endpoint was defined as clinical severity status, assessed by a 5-point ordinal scale on day 30. Differences between the treatment group and standard of care treatment group were calculated using a proportional odds model and shown as odds ratios. Additionally, the weighted cause-specific hazards and transition probabilities for each treatment arm were presented. RESULTS Our study demonstrates that trial emulation with a multi-state model analysis is a suitable approach to address observational data limitations, evaluate treatment effects on clinically heterogeneous in-hospital death and discharge alive endpoints, and consider the intermediate state of admission to ICU. The multi-state model analysis allows us to summarize results using stacked probability plots that make it easier to interpret results. CONCLUSIONS Extending the emulated target trial approach to multi-state model analysis complements treatment effectiveness analysis by gaining information on competing events. Combining two methodologies offers an option to address immortal time bias, confounding bias, and competing risk events. This methodological approach can provide additional insight for decision-making, particularly when data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are unavailable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oksana Martinuka
- Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Centre, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.
| | - Derek Hazard
- Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Centre, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Hamid Reza Marateb
- Biomedical Engineering Research Centre (CREB), Automatic Control Department (ESAII), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-Barcelona Tech (UPC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Camille Maringe
- Inequalities in Cancer Outcomes Network (ICON), Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Marjan Mansourian
- Biomedical Engineering Research Centre (CREB), Automatic Control Department (ESAII), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-Barcelona Tech (UPC), Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Manuel Rubio-Rivas
- Department of Internal Medicine, Bellvitge University Hospital, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Martin Wolkewitz
- Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Centre, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
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8
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Bonekamp NE, Cruijsen E, Visseren FL, van der Schouw YT, Geleijnse JM, Koopal C. Compliance with the DASH diet and risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with myocardial infarction. Clin Nutr 2023; 42:1418-1426. [PMID: 37433229 DOI: 10.1016/j.clnu.2023.06.033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Revised: 06/22/2023] [Accepted: 06/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet has been shown to effectively reduce blood pressure and body weight, but its effectiveness for reducing (cardiovascular) mortality rates has never been assessed in a clinical trial. Causal effects of dietary interventions are difficult to measure, due to practical limitations of randomized controlled diet trials. Target trial emulation can be used to improve causal inference in observational data. The aim of this study was to emulate a target trial assessing the relationship between compliance with the DASH diet and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality risk in patients with established CVD. METHODS Using data from the Alpha Omega Cohort, we emulated a DASH diet trial in patients with a history of myocardial infarction (MI). Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to balance confounders over DASH-compliant and non-DASH-compliant participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated with IPT-weighted Cox models. RESULTS Of 4365 patients (79% male, median age 69 years, >80% treated with lipid- and blood pressure-lowering medication), 598 were classified as DASH-compliant (compliance score ≥5 out of 9). During a median follow-up of 12.4 years, 2035 deaths occurred of which 903 (44%) were of cardiovascular origin. DASH compliance was not associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.92, 95%CI 0.0.80-1.06) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.90, 95%CI 0.72-1.11). CONCLUSIONS In an emulated target trial on the DASH diet in the Alpha Omega cohort no relation was found between DASH compliance and risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with a history of MI. The DASH diet's effects may have been modified in this population by concomitant use of blood pressure-lowering medications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nadia E Bonekamp
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Esther Cruijsen
- Division of Human Nutrition and Health, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Frank Lj Visseren
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
| | - Yvonne T van der Schouw
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Johanna M Geleijnse
- Division of Human Nutrition and Health, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Charlotte Koopal
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Yarnell CJ, Angriman F, Ferreyro BL, Liu K, De Grooth HJ, Burry L, Munshi L, Mehta S, Celi L, Elbers P, Thoral P, Brochard L, Wunsch H, Fowler RA, Sung L, Tomlinson G. Oxygenation thresholds for invasive ventilation in hypoxemic respiratory failure: a target trial emulation in two cohorts. Crit Care 2023; 27:67. [PMID: 36814287 PMCID: PMC9944781 DOI: 10.1186/s13054-023-04307-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 02/24/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The optimal thresholds for the initiation of invasive ventilation in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure are unknown. Using the saturation-to-inspired oxygen ratio (SF), we compared lower versus higher hypoxemia severity thresholds for initiating invasive ventilation. METHODS This target trial emulation included patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV, 2008-2019) and the Amsterdam University Medical Centers (AmsterdamUMCdb, 2003-2016) databases admitted to intensive care and receiving inspired oxygen fraction ≥ 0.4 via non-rebreather mask, noninvasive ventilation, or high-flow nasal cannula. We compared the effect of using invasive ventilation initiation thresholds of SF < 110, < 98, and < 88 on 28-day mortality. MIMIC-IV was used for the primary analysis and AmsterdamUMCdb for the secondary analysis. We obtained posterior means and 95% credible intervals (CrI) with nonparametric Bayesian G-computation. RESULTS We studied 3,357 patients in the primary analysis. For invasive ventilation initiation thresholds SF < 110, SF < 98, and SF < 88, the predicted 28-day probabilities of invasive ventilation were 72%, 47%, and 19%. Predicted 28-day mortality was lowest with threshold SF < 110 (22.2%, CrI 19.2 to 25.0), compared to SF < 98 (absolute risk increase 1.6%, CrI 0.6 to 2.6) or SF < 88 (absolute risk increase 3.5%, CrI 1.4 to 5.4). In the secondary analysis (1,279 patients), the predicted 28-day probability of invasive ventilation was 50% for initiation threshold SF < 110, 28% for SF < 98, and 19% for SF < 88. In contrast with the primary analysis, predicted mortality was highest with threshold SF < 110 (14.6%, CrI 7.7 to 22.3), compared to SF < 98 (absolute risk decrease 0.5%, CrI 0.0 to 0.9) or SF < 88 (absolute risk decrease 1.9%, CrI 0.9 to 2.8). CONCLUSION Initiating invasive ventilation at lower hypoxemia severity will increase the rate of invasive ventilation, but this can either increase or decrease the expected mortality, with the direction of effect likely depending on baseline mortality risk and clinical context.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher J. Yarnell
- grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada ,grid.231844.80000 0004 0474 0428Department of Medicine, Division of Respirology, University Health Network and Sinai Health System, Toronto, Canada ,grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Medical-Surgical ICU, 10th floor, 585 University Avenue, Toronto, ON M5G 1X5 Canada
| | - Federico Angriman
- grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada ,grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Medical-Surgical ICU, 10th floor, 585 University Avenue, Toronto, ON M5G 1X5 Canada ,grid.413104.30000 0000 9743 1587Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Canada
| | - Bruno L. Ferreyro
- grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada ,grid.231844.80000 0004 0474 0428Department of Medicine, Division of Respirology, University Health Network and Sinai Health System, Toronto, Canada ,grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Medical-Surgical ICU, 10th floor, 585 University Avenue, Toronto, ON M5G 1X5 Canada
| | - Kuan Liu
- grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Medical-Surgical ICU, 10th floor, 585 University Avenue, Toronto, ON M5G 1X5 Canada
| | - Harm Jan De Grooth
- grid.12380.380000 0004 1754 9227Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Lisa Burry
- grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada ,grid.492573.e0000 0004 6477 6457Department of Pharmacy and Medicine, Sinai Health System, Toronto, Canada ,grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy and Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON Canada
| | - Laveena Munshi
- grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada ,grid.231844.80000 0004 0474 0428Department of Medicine, Division of Respirology, University Health Network and Sinai Health System, Toronto, Canada
| | - Sangeeta Mehta
- grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada ,grid.231844.80000 0004 0474 0428Department of Medicine, Division of Respirology, University Health Network and Sinai Health System, Toronto, Canada
| | - Leo Celi
- grid.116068.80000 0001 2341 2786Institute for Medical Engineering and Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ,grid.239395.70000 0000 9011 8547Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA 02215 USA ,grid.38142.3c000000041936754XDepartment of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115 USA
| | - Paul Elbers
- grid.12380.380000 0004 1754 9227Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Patrick Thoral
- grid.12380.380000 0004 1754 9227Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Laurent Brochard
- grid.415502.7Keenan Research Centre for Biomedical Research, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada ,grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Hannah Wunsch
- grid.418647.80000 0000 8849 1617Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada ,grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Medical-Surgical ICU, 10th floor, 585 University Avenue, Toronto, ON M5G 1X5 Canada ,grid.413104.30000 0000 9743 1587Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Canada
| | - Robert A. Fowler
- grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada ,grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada ,grid.418647.80000 0000 8849 1617Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada ,grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Medical-Surgical ICU, 10th floor, 585 University Avenue, Toronto, ON M5G 1X5 Canada ,grid.413104.30000 0000 9743 1587Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Canada
| | - Lillian Sung
- grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Medical-Surgical ICU, 10th floor, 585 University Avenue, Toronto, ON M5G 1X5 Canada ,grid.42327.300000 0004 0473 9646Division of Haematology/Oncology, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada
| | - George Tomlinson
- grid.231844.80000 0004 0474 0428Department of Medicine, University Health Network and Sinai Health System, Toronto, Canada ,grid.17063.330000 0001 2157 2938Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Medical-Surgical ICU, 10th floor, 585 University Avenue, Toronto, ON M5G 1X5 Canada
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Boyne DJ, Brenner DR, Gupta A, Mackay E, Arora P, Wasiak R, Cheung WY, Hernán MA. Head-to-head comparison of FOLFIRINOX versus gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel in advanced pancreatic cancer: a target trial emulation using real-world data. Ann Epidemiol 2023; 78:28-34. [PMID: 36563766 DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2022.12.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2022] [Revised: 11/29/2022] [Accepted: 12/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE To emulate a hypothetical target trial assessing the effect of initiating 5-fluorouracil, folinic acid, irinotecan, and oxaliplatin (FOLFIRINOX) versus gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel (GN) within 8 weeks of diagnosis on overall survival. METHODS An observational cohort study was conducted using population-level data from Alberta, Canada. Individuals diagnosed with advanced pancreatic cancer between April 2015 and December 2019 were identified through the provincial cancer registry and followed until March 2021. Records were linked to other administrative databases containing information on relevant variables. Individuals were excluded if they did not have adequate hemoglobin, platelet, white blood cell, and serum creatinine measures or if they received prior therapy. The observational analog of the per-protocol effect was estimated using inverse probability weighted Kaplan-Meier curves with bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS Four hundred seven individuals were eligible. The weighted median overall survival was 8.3 months (95% CI, 5.7-11.9) for FOLFIRINOX and 5.1 months (95% CI: 4.3 to 5.8) for GN. The adjusted difference in median overall survival was 3.2 months (95% CI, 1.1-7.4) and the mortality hazard ratio was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.61-0.97). CONCLUSIONS Our estimates favored the initiation of FOLFIRINOX over GN with respect to overall survival.
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Kishimoto T, Tasato D, Nagasawa Y, Higure Y, Setoguti M, Tibana R, Yamashiro A, Miyazato T, Shokita H. Vaccination, regular exercise, and prevention of chronic lung disease reduce exacerbation of COVID-19 severity in northern Okinawa, Japan: A cross-sectional study. Environ Health Prev Med 2023; 28:73. [PMID: 38008444 PMCID: PMC10685076 DOI: 10.1265/ehpm.23-00281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2023] [Accepted: 10/27/2023] [Indexed: 11/28/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND As at June 14, 2023, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had affected more than 767 million people and caused more than 6.9 million deaths worldwide. This study aimed to clarify the lifestyle factors that influence the exacerbation of COVID-19 severity. METHODS This was a cross-sectional study of patients with COVID-19 whose severity classification of "moderate or severe" (COVID-19 exacerbation) was defined as an objective variable. The 1,353 participants were selected from 4,899 patients with COVID-19 between August 10, 2020 and December 10, 2022. Participants who underwent a specific health checkup before the date for a COVID-19 consultation were included. Using binominal logistic regression analysis, we evaluated the odds ratios (ORs) for COVID-19 exacerbation according to lifestyle-related factors. Limitations were discussed using a target trial emulation framework which clarifies problems in observational studies. RESULTS The explanatory variables extracted as factors that exacerbated COVID-19 severity were gender (OR [man vs. woman]: 2.533, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.484-4.322); age (OR [50s vs. 10s, 20s, or 30s]: 4.858, 95% CI 2.319-10.177; OR [60s]: 9.738, 95% CI 4.355-21.777; OR [70s + 80s + 90s]: 8.327, 95% CI 3.224-21.507); and comorbid chronic lung disease (OR ['yes' vs. 'no']: 2.892, 95% CI 1.227-6.818). The explanatory variables extracted as factors that reduce the severity of COVID-19 were hospital consultation year (OR [2022, predominantly Omicron variant prevalent vs. 2020, predominantly Alpha variant prevalent]: 0.180, 95% CI 0.058-0.559); number of vaccinations (OR [2 doses vs. 0 or one doses]: 0.223, 95% CI 0.114-0.436; OR [≥3 doses vs. 0 or one doses]: 0.090, 95% CI 0.035-0.229); regular exercise (exercising ≥2 days/week ≥30 minutes each at an intensity that causes a slight sweat for ≥1 year) (OR ['yes' vs. 'no']: 0.458, 95% CI 0.242-0.866). CONCLUSIONS These results suggest the importance of vaccination, regular exercise, and prevention of chronic lung disease as measures against exacerbation of COVID-19 severity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Takuji Kishimoto
- Department of Health Screening, Okinawa North Medical Association Hospital, 1712-3 Nago City, Okinawa 905-8611, Japan
| | - Daisuke Tasato
- Department of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases, Okinawa North Medical Association Hospital, 1712-3 Nago City, Okinawa 905-8611, Japan
| | - Yoshitaka Nagasawa
- Department of Endocrinology, Metabolism and Dialysis, Okinawa North Medical Association Hospital, 1712-3 Nago City, Okinawa 905-8611, Japan
| | - Yuri Higure
- Department of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases, Okinawa North Medical Association Hospital, 1712-3 Nago City, Okinawa 905-8611, Japan
| | - Michika Setoguti
- Department of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases, Okinawa North Medical Association Hospital, 1712-3 Nago City, Okinawa 905-8611, Japan
| | - Rin Tibana
- Department of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases, Okinawa North Medical Association Hospital, 1712-3 Nago City, Okinawa 905-8611, Japan
| | - Akihiro Yamashiro
- Department of Health Screening, Okinawa North Medical Association Hospital, 1712-3 Nago City, Okinawa 905-8611, Japan
| | - Tatsuya Miyazato
- Department of Health Screening, Okinawa North Medical Association Hospital, 1712-3 Nago City, Okinawa 905-8611, Japan
| | - Hayashi Shokita
- Department of Gastroenterology, Okinawa North Medical Association Hospital, 1712-3 Nago City, Okinawa 905-8611, Japan
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Martínez-Alés G, Domingo-Relloso A, Quintana-Díaz M, Fernández-Capitán C, Hernán MA; COVID@HULP Group. Thromboprophylaxis with standard-dose vs. flexible-dose heparin for hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a target trial emulation. J Clin Epidemiol 2022; 151:96-103. [PMID: 35987402 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.08.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2021] [Revised: 07/19/2022] [Accepted: 08/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To compare mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients under two low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH) thromboprophylaxis strategies: standard dose and variable dose (standard dose increased to intermediate dose in the presence of laboratory abnormalities indicating an increased thrombosis risk). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Target trial emulation using observational data from 2,613 adults admitted with a COVID-19 diagnosis in Madrid, Spain between March 16 and April 15, 2020. RESULTS A total of 1,284 patients were eligible. Among 503 patients without increased baseline thrombotic risk, 28-day mortality risk (95% confidence interval [CI]) was 9.0% (6.6, 11.7) under the standard dose strategy and 5.6% (3.3, 8.3) under the variable dose strategy; risk difference 3.4% (95% CI: -0.24, 6.9); mortality hazard ratio 1.61 (95% CI: 0.97, 2.89). Among 781 patients with increased baseline thrombotic risk, the 28-day mortality risk was 25.8% (22.7, 29.0) under the standard dose strategy and 18.1% (9.3, 28.9) under the intermediate dose strategy; risk difference 7.7% (95% CI: -3.5, 17.2); mortality hazard ratio 1.45 (95% CI: 0.81, 3.17). Major bleeding and LMWH-induced coagulopathy were rare under all strategies. CONCLUSION Escalating anticoagulation intensity after signs of thrombosis risk may increase the survival of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. However, effect estimates were imprecise and additional studies are warranted.
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Bujkiewicz S, Singh J, Wheaton L, Jenkins D, Martina R, Hyrich KL, Abrams KR. Bridging disconnected networks of first and second lines of biologic therapies in rheumatoid arthritis with registry data: bayesian evidence synthesis with target trial emulation. J Clin Epidemiol 2022; 150:171-178. [PMID: 35850425 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.06.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Revised: 05/27/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We aim to use real-world data in evidence synthesis to optimize an evidence base for the effectiveness of biologic therapies in rheumatoid arthritis to allow for evidence on first-line therapies to inform second-line effectiveness estimates. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We use data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Rheumatoid Arthritis to supplement randomized controlled trials evidence obtained from the literature, by emulating target trials of treatment sequences to estimate treatment effects in each line of therapy. Treatment effects estimates from the target trials inform a bivariate network meta-analysis (NMA) of first-line and second-line treatments. RESULTS Summary data were obtained from 21 trials of biologic therapies including two for second-line treatment and results from six emulated target trials of both treatment lines. Bivariate NMA resulted in a decrease in uncertainty around the effectiveness estimates of the second-line therapies, when compared to the results of univariate NMA, and allowed for predictions of treatment effects not evaluated in second-line randomized controlled trials. CONCLUSION Bivariate NMA provides effectiveness estimates for all treatments in first and second line, including predicted effects in second line where these estimates did not exist in the data. This novel methodology may have further applications; for example, for bridging networks of trials in children and adults.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylwia Bujkiewicz
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK.
| | - Janharpreet Singh
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK
| | - Lorna Wheaton
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK
| | - David Jenkins
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK; Centre for Health Informatics, Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Reynaldo Martina
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK
| | - Kimme L Hyrich
- NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre, Manchester, UK; Versus Arthritis Centre for Epidemiology, Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, The University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK
| | - Keith R Abrams
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK; Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK; Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
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Bruun-Rasmussen P, Andersen PK, Banasik K, Brunak S, Johansson PI. Estimating the effect of donor sex on red blood cell transfused patient mortality: A retrospective cohort study using a targeted learning and emulated trials-based approach. EClinicalMedicine 2022; 51:101628. [PMID: 36176312 PMCID: PMC9513555 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101628] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2022] [Revised: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 08/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Observational studies determining the effect of red blood cell (RBC) donor sex on recipient mortality have been inconsistent. Emulating hypothetical randomized target trials using large real-world data and targeted learning may clarify potential adverse effects. METHODS In this retrospective cohort study, a RBC transfusion database from the Capital Region of Denmark comprising more than 900,000 transfusion events defined the observational data. Eligible patients were minimum 18 years, had received a leukocyte-reduced RBC transfusion, and had no history of RBC transfusions within the past year at baseline. The doubly robust targeted maximum likelihood estimation method coupled with ensembled machine learning was used to emulate sex-stratified target trials determining the comparative effectiveness of exclusively transfusing RBC units from either male or female donors. The outcome was all-cause mortality within 28 days of the baseline-transfusion. Estimates were adjusted for the total number of transfusions received on each day k, hospital of transfusion, calendar period, patient age and sex, ABO/RhD blood group of the patient, Charlson comorbidity score, the total number of transfusions received prior to day k, and the number of RBC units received on each day k from donors younger than 40 years of age. FINDINGS Among 98,167 adult patients who were transfused between Jan. 1, 2008, and Apr. 10, 2018, a total of 90,917 patients (54.6% female) were eligible. For male patients, the 28-day survival was 2.06 percentage points (pp) (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.81-2.32, P<0.0001) higher under treatment with RBC units exclusively from male donors compared with exclusively from female donors. In female patients, exclusively transfusing RBC units from either male or female donors increased the 28-day survival with 0.64pp (0.52-0.76, P<0.0001), and 0.62pp (0.49-0.75, P<0.0001) compared with the current practice, respectively. No evidence of a sex-specific donor effect was found for female patients (0.02pp [-0.18-0.22]). The sensitivity analyses showed that a large unknown causal bias would have to be present to affect the conclusions. INTERPRETATION The results suggest that a sex-matched transfusion policy may benefit patients. However, a causal interpretation of the findings relies on the assumption of no unmeasured confounding, treatment consistency, positivity, and minimal model misspecifications. FUNDING Novo Nordisk Foundation and the Innovation Fund Denmark.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Bruun-Rasmussen
- Department of Clinical Immunology, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen University Hospital, DK-2200 Copenhagen, Denmark
- Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Protein Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, DK-2200 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Per Kragh Andersen
- Department of Public Health, Section of Biostatistics, University of Copenhagen, DK-1014 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Karina Banasik
- Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Protein Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, DK-2200 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Søren Brunak
- Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Protein Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, DK-2200 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Pär Ingemar Johansson
- Department of Clinical Immunology, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen University Hospital, DK-2200 Copenhagen, Denmark
- Corresponding author at: Center for Endotheliomics CAG, Rigshospitalet, Blegdamsvej 9, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.
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