Bayesian matrix completion for hypothesis testing

We aim to infer bioactivity of each chemical by assay endpoint combination, addressing sparsity of toxicology data. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical framework which borrows information across different chemicals and assay endpoints, facilitates out-of-sample prediction of activity for chemicals not yet assayed, quantifies uncertainty of predicted activity, and adjusts for multiplicity in hypothesis testing. Furthermore, this paper makes a novel attempt in toxicology to simultaneously model heteroscedastic errors and a nonparametric mean function, leading to a broader definition of activity whose need has been suggested by toxicologists. Real application identifies chemicals most likely active for neurodevelopmental disorders and obesity.

Use of computational toxicology models to predict toxicological points of departure: A case study with triazine herbicides

BACKGROUND

Atrazine simazine and propazine, widely used triazine herbicides on food crops and in residential areas, disrupt the neuroendocrine system raising human health concerns. USEPA developed a PBPK model based on triazine common Mode of Action (MOA)-suppression of luteinizing hormone surge in female rats-to generate human regulatory points of departure (POD: mg/kg/day). We compared triazine Human Administered Equivalent Dose (AED_Human mg/kg/day) predictions from open access computational tools to the PBPK PODs to assess concordance.

METHODS

Computational tools were the following: ToxCast/Tox21 in vitro assays; Toxicogenomic databases to assess concordance with ToxCast/Tox21 targets; integrated chemical environment (ICE) models with ToxCast/Tox21 inputs to predict AED_Human PODs and population-based age-refined high throughput toxicokinetics (HTTK-Pop) to compare to age-related PBPK PODs.

RESULTS

ToxCast/Tox21 assays identified critical targets in the triazine common MOA and gene databases; ICE AED_Human predictions were mainly concordant with the USEPA PBPK PODs quantitatively. Low fold-differences between PBPK POD and ICE AED_Human predictions indicated that the ICE models are health-protective. HTTK-Pop age-refinements were within 10-fold of the USEPA PBPK PODs.

CONCLUSIONS

CompTox tools were used to identify assay targets in the MOA and identify potential molecular initiating targets in the adverse outcome pathway for potential use in risk assessment.

Application of ToxCast/Tox21 data for toxicity mechanism-based evaluation and prioritization of environmental chemicals: Perspective and limitations

In response to the need to minimize the use of experimental animals, new approach methodologies (NAMs) using advanced technology have emerged in the 21st century. ToxCast/Tox21 aims to evaluate the adverse effects of chemicals quickly and efficiently using a high-throughput screening and to transform the paradigm of toxicity assessment into mechanism-based toxicity prediction. The ToxCast/Tox21 database, which contains extensive data from over 1400 assays with numerous biological targets and activity data for over 9000 chemicals, can be used for various purposes in the field of chemical prioritization and toxicity prediction. In this study, an overview of the database was explored to aid mechanism-based chemical prioritization and toxicity prediction. Implications for the utilization of the ToxCast/Tox21 database in chemical prioritization and toxicity prediction were derived. The research trends in ToxCast/Tox21 assay data were reviewed in the context of toxicity mechanism identification, chemical priority, environmental monitoring, assay development, and toxicity prediction. Finally, the potential applications and limitations of using ToxCast/Tox21 assay data in chemical risk assessment were discussed. The analysis of the toxicity mechanism-based assays of ToxCast/Tox21 will help in chemical prioritization and regulatory applications without the use of laboratory animals.

Predictive modeling of biological responses in the rat liver using in vitro Tox21 bioactivity: Benefits from high-throughput toxicokinetics

Computational methods are needed to more efficiently leverage data from in vitro cell-based models to predict what occurs within whole body systems after chemical insults. This study set out to test the hypothesis that in vitro high-throughput screening (HTS) data can more effectively predict in vivo biological responses when chemical disposition and toxicokinetic (TK) modeling are employed. In vitro HTS data from the Tox21 consortium were analyzed in concert with chemical disposition modeling to derive nominal, aqueous, and intracellular estimates of concentrations eliciting 50% maximal activity. In vivo biological responses were captured using rat liver transcriptomic data from the DrugMatrix and TG-Gates databases and evaluated for pathway enrichment. In vivo dosing data were translated to equivalent body concentrations using HTTK modeling. Random forest models were then trained and tested to predict in vivo pathway-level activity across 221 chemicals using in vitro bioactivity data and physicochemical properties as predictor variables, incorporating methods to address imbalanced training data resulting from high instances of inactivity. Model performance was quantified using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and compared across pathways for different combinations of predictor variables. All models that included toxicokinetics were found to outperform those that excluded toxicokinetics. Biological interpretation of the model features revealed that rather than a direct mapping of in vitro assays to in vivo pathways, unexpected combinations of multiple in vitro assays predicted in vivo pathway-level activities. To demonstrate the utility of these findings, the highest-performing model was leveraged to make new predictions of in vivo biological responses across all biological pathways for remaining chemicals tested in Tox21 with adequate data coverage (n = 6617). These results demonstrate that, when chemical disposition and toxicokinetics are carefully considered, in vitro HT screening data can be used to effectively predict in vivo biological responses to chemicals.

Use of computational toxicology (CompTox) tools to predict in vivo toxicity for risk assessment

Computational Toxicology tools were used to predict toxicity for three pesticides: propyzamide (PZ), carbaryl (CB) and chlorpyrifos (CPF). The tools used included: a) ToxCast/Tox21 assays (AC₅₀ s μM: concentration 50% maximum activity); b) in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) using ToxCast/Tox21 AC₅₀s to predict administered equivalent doses (AED: mg/kg/d) to compare to known in vivo Lowest-Observed-Effect-Level (LOEL)/Benchmark Dose (BMD); c) high throughput toxicokinetics population based (HTTK-Pop) using AC₅₀s for endpoints associated with the mode of action (MOA) to predict age-adjusted AED for comparison with in vivo LOEL/BMDs. ToxCast/Tox21 active-hit-calls for each chemical were predictive of targets associated with each MOA, however, assays directly relevant to the MOAs for each chemical were limited. IVIVE AEDs were predictive of in vivo LOEL/BMD₁₀s for all three pesticides. HTTK-Pop was predictive of in vivo LOEL/BMD₁₀s for PZ and CPF but not for CB after human age adjustments 11-15 (PZ) and 6-10 (CB) or 6-10 and 11-20 (CPF) corresponding to treated rat ages (in vivo endpoints). The predictions of computational tools are useful for risk assessment to identify targets in chemical MOAs and to support in vivo endpoints. Data can also aid is decisions about the need for further studies.

Evaluation of androgen assay results using a curated Hershberger database

A set of 39 reference chemicals with reproducible androgen pathway effects in vivo, identified in the companion manuscript [1], were used to interrogate the performance of the ToxCast/Tox 21 androgen receptor (AR) model based on 11 high throughput assays. Cytotoxicity data and specificity confirmation assays were used to distinguish assay loss-of-function from true antagonistic signaling suppression. Overall agreement was 66% (19/29), with ten additional inconclusive chemicals. Most discrepancies were explained using in vitro to in vivo extrapolation to estimate equivalent administered doses. The AR model had 100% positive predictive value for the in vivo response, i.e. there were no false positives, and chemicals with conclusive AR model results (agonist or antagonist) were consistently positive in vivo. Considering the lack of reproducibility of the in vivo Hershberger assay, the in vitro AR model may better predict specific AR interaction and can rapidly and cost-effectively screen thousands of chemicals without using animals.