Performance of the Matsumiya scoring system in cervical cancer patients with bone metastasis: an external validation study

BACKGROUND

Accurate prognostic prediction of survival in cervical cancer patients with bone metastasis is important for treatment planning. We aimed to externally validate the Matsumiya scoring system using external patient data.

METHODS

We collected a retrospective cohort of patients with cervical cancer diagnosed with bone metastasis at Chiang Mai University Hospital from 1st January 2007 to 31st December 2016. The Matsumiya score was composed of 5 predictors, including the presence of extraskeletal metastasis, ECOG performance status, history of previous chemo- or radiotherapy, the presence of multiple bone metastasis, and bone metastasis-free interval < 12 months. Harrell's C-statistics and score calibration plots were used to evaluate the score performance. We also reconstructed the development study to estimate apparent performance values for comparison during external validation.

RESULTS

A total of 124 cervical cancer patients with bone metastasis were included in this study. The 13-, 26-, and 52-week survival probabilities in the validation study were 70.1%, 50.5%, and 25.7%, respectively. Several differences were identified between development and validation studies regarding clinical characteristics, case-mix, and predictor-outcome associations. Harrell's C-statistics in the development and validation study were 0.714 and 0.567. The score showed poor agreement between the observed and the predicted survival probabilities in the validation study. Score reweighting and refitting showed only modest improvement in performance.

CONCLUSION

A prognostic scoring system by Matsumiya et al. performed poorly in our cohort of Thai cervical cancer patients with bone metastasis. We suggested that the score should be sufficiently updated before being used.

[Real-world research on cervical cancer screening program and effect evaluation for Chinese population]

Objective: To evaluate the actual efficacy of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions screening approaches in real-world regions with different economic levels in China. Methods: The demonstrative application and effect evaluation of cervical cancer screening program were conducted in 21 hospitals nationwide from 2015 to 2018. Multi-stage sampling method was adopted to divide the country into 7 large areas according to geographical location. Two to four screening sites of two types of cancer (cervical cancer and breast cancer) were selected in each area, and the grassroots screening sites were implemented under the guidance of superior hospitals. In rural areas, women were initially screened using cytology, human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and visual inspection. The women with positive cytology or visual inspection were referred for colposcopy, and the women with positive HPV infection were randomly referred for reflex cytology or visual inspection, or direct colposcopy examination. In urban areas, women were primarily randomized into cytology or HPV testing groups. The women with abnormal cytology or positive HPV 16/18 infection were directly referred for colposcopy examination, whereas the women with positive infection of the other 12 high-risk subtypes of HPV were referred for reflex cytology or colposcopy. All of recruited women would be follow-up and screened by the baseline screening techniques in the third year while the positive women underwent colposcopy examination. The positive rates, referral rates, the detection rates of grade 2 and above of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN 2+ ) were compared. Results: A total of 63 931 women were recruited at the baseline. Among them, 11 rural sites included 33 823 women: 15 577, 11 157 and 7 089 women were screened by HPV testing, visual inspection via acetic acid or Lugol's iodine (VIA/VILI) and cytology, respectively. Additionally, 30 108 women were from 10 urban sites: 9 907 and 20 201 women were screened by cytology and HPV subtyping, respectively. The HPV positive rate for urban women was 9.34%, whereas that for rural women was 12.53%. The abnormal rate of cytology for urban women was 5.63%, and that for rural women was 4.24%. The positive rate of VIA/VILI in the rural women was 12.25% Furthermore, the detection rate of CIN2+ at the baseline was 0.56%, and that was statistically higher in HPV-positive group than cytology-positive group (P<0.05). Conclusions: All of screening sites completed the baseline screening tasks as expected. The prevalence of HPV infection is higher in rural women than urban women. The performance of HPV testing is better than cytology for detecting CIN2+ cases. This real-world demonstration study provides evidences for cervical cancer prevention and control in different regions.