How much organic carbon could the soil store? The carbon sequestration potential of Australian soil

Soil is a huge carbon (C) reservoir, but where and how much extra C can be stored is unknown. Current methods to estimate the maximum amount of mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) stabilized in the fine fraction (clay + silt,< 20 μm $$ <20\;\upmu \mathrm{m} $$ ) fit through the MAOC versus clay + silt relationship, not their maxima, making their estimates more uncertain and unreliable. We need a function that 'envelopes' that relationship. Here, using 5089 observations, we estimated that the uppermost 30 cm of Australian soil holds 13 Gt (10-18 Gt) of MAOC. We then fitted frontier lines, by soil type, to the relationship between MAOC and the percentage of clay + silt to estimate the maximum amounts of MAOC that Australian soils could store in their current environments, and calculated the MAOC deficit, or C sequestration potential. We propagated the uncertainties from the frontier line fitting and mapped the estimates of these values over Australia using machine learning and kriging with external drift. The maps show regions where the soil is more in MAOC deficit and has greater sequestration potential. The modelling shows that the variation over the whole continent is determined mainly by climate, linked to vegetation and soil mineralogy. We find that the MAOC deficit in Australian soil is 40 Gt (25-60 Gt). The deficit in the vast rangelands is 20.84 Gt (13.97-29.70 Gt) and the deficit in cropping soil is 1.63 Gt (1.12-2.32 Gt). Management could increase C sequestration in these regions if the climate allowed it. Our findings provide new information on the C sequestration potential of Australian soils and highlight priority regions for soil management. Australia could benefit environmentally, socially and economically by unlocking even a tiny portion of its soil's C sequestration potential.